Week 8 brings an 11-game Sunday main slate with plenty of scoring and a few clear mismatches. Ravens-Bills and Cardinals-Cowboys share the top total at 54.5, Titans-Bengals (Cincinnati -12.5) and Colts-Jaguars (Jacksonville -10) carry the biggest spreads, and Browns-Steelers sits at the bottom of the board at 38.5. Minnesota brings a 6-0 record into Detroit, the Chargers are still looking for their first win in Los Angeles, and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Tampa and Miami.
Injuries have reshaped several backfields and receiver rooms heading into Sunday, and ownership has moved with the news all week. Here's where I've got my money, straight from Fantasy Alarm's DK and FD models: the chalk that's earned it, the guys the field is underrating, where the real leverage lives, and how I'd build around it.
NFL DFS Ownership Projections Week 8
Two games set the tone.
Ravens-Bills: Buffalo is -3 with a 54.5 total, which puts the Bills at about 29 implied points and the Ravens at about 26.
Cardinals-Cowboys: Dallas is -7 with the same 54.5 total, which puts the Cowboys near 31 implied points.
Chiefs-Broncos (40.5, Kansas City -1.5) is the other game under 41, and the Jacksonville and Cincinnati blowout spreads put the Colts and Titans at about 18 and 17 implied points.
FTN's defensive DVOA through seven weeks shows where the soft spots are. Tennessee (32nd), Dallas (31st), Arizona (29th), Las Vegas (28th), Miami (27th) and Buffalo (26th) are all bottom-seven defenses, while Minnesota is second, Tampa Bay third and Jacksonville fourth. Detroit gives up the most receiving yards per game to tight ends, and Las Vegas is last against running backs.
Four pieces of news move the board. Tennessee traded defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago this week, Kansas City is without cornerbacks Mansoor Delane and L'Jarius Sneed, Detroit is without safety Kerby Joseph, and New England is down to DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism and Ryan Miller at receiver.
The field has piled into the Patriots and Denver backfields, the Bengals offense and the Cowboys receivers, plus the cheapest defense on the board. Kansas City's offense, the Vikings passing game and the Colts-Jaguars pass catchers are all owned well below their game environments.
Highest-Owned NFL DFS Players
Rhamondre Stevenson leads DraftKings at 28.8% now that TreVeyon Henderson is out, Jonah Coleman is at 27.4%, and Wan'Dale Robinson, Puka Nacua and Chase Brown are all above 24%. Jahmyr Gibbs is the biggest number on FanDuel at 31.1%, and Javonte Williams is 25.1% on FanDuel even as he slips to 14.3% on DraftKings.
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | FD Salary | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | $5,600 | 28.8% | $6,500 | 26.8% |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | $4,300 | 27.4% | $5,300 | 19.1% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | $4,200 | 25.7% | $5,100 | 20.3% |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | $8,600 | 24.8% | $9,100 | 22.4% |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | $6,300 | 24.4% | $7,100 | 19.2% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | $6,400 | 23.0% | $7,300 | 17.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,500 | 21.6% | $8,800 | 21.4% |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | $8,100 | 21.4% | $8,900 | 16.2% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | $7,700 | 20.0% | $8,700 | 15.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | $4,300 | 20.0% | $5,200 | 20.9% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | $9,500 | 19.3% | $9,300 | 31.1% |
| Broncos DST | DST | DEN | $2,300 | 19.3% | $4,100 | 5.0% |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | $6,300 | 19.3% | $8,000 | 16.4% |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | $7,200 | 19.2% | $8,000 | 16.0% |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | $7,400 | 19.2% | $7,300 | 28.7% |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | $6,700 | 17.8% | $7,100 | 24.4% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | $5,900 | 15.8% | $6,900 | 13.5% |
| Steelers DST | DST | PIT | $3,300 | 14.7% | $4,900 | 9.6% |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | $7,300 | 14.3% | $7,500 | 25.1% |
Best NFL DFS Chalk Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET vs. MIN): He leads running backs at 25.8 points a game with 620 rushing yards, seven touchdowns and 32 catches in six games, and he went full in practice Thursday and Friday with a shoulder issue. Detroit is a 3-point favorite at about 25 implied points, and talent this good plays in any matchup. The risk is that Minnesota is second in DVOA against running backs and first against the pass, and $9,500 leaves no room for a quiet game.
Javonte Williams (RB, DAL vs. ARI): He has a touchdown in six of seven games, eight on the season, and he ran for 155 yards last week as Dallas recommitted to the run. Arizona is 24th against running backs and gave up 151 yards and two scores to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 5. Dallas is a 7-point favorite at about 31 implied points. The risk is touchdown dependence and an Arizona run defense that is a middling 17th in rush DVOA.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL vs. ARI): He has 81 targets, a 30.5% share, 651 yards and six touchdowns, and Arizona is last in pass DVOA. He's the safest receiver on the slate to see volume. With KaVontae Turpin out, the target tree is tight. The risk is the $8,100 price and George Pickens (questionable) pulling coverage and targets alongside him.
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR vs. LAC): He has 62 targets and 485 yards in five games at 18.2 points a game, and the Chargers will be without safety Derwin James, with cornerbacks Donte Jackson and Rodney Shelley questionable. Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite. The risk is $8,600 against a Chargers WR1 matchup that ranks only 19th in DVOA, and the Rams could lean on the ground game early.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN vs. TEN): He's scoring below his talent at 13.5 points a game, but he has five touchdowns on a 21.1% target share, and Tennessee is 31st against the pass after trading Jeffery Simmons to Chicago this week. Cincinnati is a 12.5-point favorite at about 30 implied points, and Joe Burrow is the third-highest scoring quarterback in the league. Ja'Marr Chase went full in practice Thursday and Friday after a Wednesday rest day. The risk is a blowout that trims the pass volume, and Tee Higgins has out-targeted him this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE at MIA): TreVeyon Henderson is officially out, which makes him the lead back with Corey Kiner and newly signed Lan Larison behind him. Miami is 31st in DVOA against running backs and 27th in run stop win rate, New England's offensive line is ninth in run block win rate, and the Patriots are a 7-point favorite. At 28.8% he's the most-owned player on the slate, and the role earns it. The risk is a 3.7 yards per carry average and a receiver room missing A.J. Brown, which makes the offense easier to defend, with thunderstorms in the forecast.
Chalk worth holding, not chasing
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL at TB): He has 704 rushing yards at 5.4 a carry plus 25 catches, and Brian Robinson is out with a hamstring injury, which removes his only real backfield competition. Elite talent holds up in a tough spot, but Tampa Bay is third in defensive DVOA, sixth against the run and allows just 77.3 rushing yards a game, and Atlanta is at about 20 implied points. At 21.6% he's a hold, not a priority.
Bucky Irving (RB, TB vs. ATL): He has 558 rushing yards at 4.7 a carry and four touchdowns, 14.4 points a game, and he's the lead back with Emeka Egbuka out and Kenneth Gainwell questionable. Atlanta is 12th against running backs and 13th against the run, so the matchup is fine, and thunderstorms favor the ground game. At 23.0% the risk is the price in ownership, in a 43.5-total game where Tampa Bay is only a 2.5-point favorite.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE at MIA): With A.J. Brown out, he's the biggest beneficiary in a receiver room of Douglas, Williams, Chism and Miller, and Miami is 30th in DVOA against tight ends. The risk is a 14.8% target share and 7.8 points a game, so at 20.0% you're paying for the situation more than the player.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN vs. TEN): Tennessee traded Jeffery Simmons to Chicago this week, is 29th against running backs, and Cincinnati is a 12.5-point favorite. He's still averaging 3.5 yards a carry and 10.1 points a game with one rushing touchdown, so his value is in 28 catches and not in explosiveness. At 24.4% the field is paying for the script, and Bhayshul Tuten is the cleaner way to get similar exposure.
Chalk I'm fading
Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN vs. KC): He's the second-most-owned player on the slate at 27.4% with RJ Harvey out, but he has 19 carries and 7.1 points a game across three games. Kansas City is eighth against the run, J.K. Dobbins is still on the roster, and Denver is a 1.5-point underdog at about 19.5 implied points. The ownership is paying for opportunity at $4,300, not a proven role.
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, TEN at CIN): He's 25.7% with Carnell Tate out, and Calvin Ridley is questionable, but he's a slot-only receiver averaging 6.7 points a game and 7.1 yards a catch, with 205 yards in seven games. Tennessee's offense ranks 31st, Cam Ward is the 38th-ranked quarterback in points per game, and trailing by two touchdowns inflates catches more than yards.
Best NFL DFS Low-Owned Plays
| Player | Pos | Team | DK Salary | DK Own% | Pos Rank | FD Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | $6,800 | 5.1% | QB8 | 5.0% |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | $5,200 | 2.4% | QB11 | 1.7% |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | $5,500 | 0.5% | QB20 | 1.9% |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | KC | $8,800 | 5.1% | RB15 | 11.1% |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | $7,900 | 5.5% | RB13 | 11.9% |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | $7,100 | 5.8% | WR22 | 4.6% |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | $6,200 | 6.9% | WR19 | 18.0% |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | $6,300 | 7.0% | WR18 | 5.4% |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | $7,600 | 4.4% | TE9 | 7.9% |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | $4,600 | 2.7% | TE10 | 3.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | $5,300 | 1.5% | TE15 | 4.5% |
| Jaguars DST | DST | JAX | $3,700 | 4.3% | DST9 | 8.0% |
| Bengals DST | DST | CIN | $3,800 | 1.9% | DST12 | 4.4% |
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL at BUF): He's 5.1%, eighth among quarterbacks, in the highest-total game on the slate, and he's one of the few players who can score 30 on his own. Buffalo is 28th in pass DVOA, and Lamar Jackson practiced fully all week and isn't on the Ravens' injury report. The risk is his first game back from three weeks out with an ankle injury.
Kirk Cousins (QB, LV at NYJ): He's 0.5%, 20th among quarterbacks, with 16 touchdown passes and 19.5 points a game, so this isn't a punt. The Jets are 20th in pass DVOA, 30th against No. 2 receivers and 27th against No. 3 receivers. The risk is a thinner supporting cast: tight end Carter Runyon is out and receiver Jack Bech is questionable.
Geno Smith (QB, NYJ vs. LV): He's 2.4%, 11th among quarterbacks, with 10 touchdowns to two interceptions. Las Vegas is 25th in pass DVOA and 27th against No. 1 receivers. The risk is that the Jets may lean on the ground game if Breece Hall is active.
Running backs
Kenneth Walker (RB, KC at DEN): He's 5.1%, 15th among running backs, for a back who leads the league at 116.8 rushing yards a game and 5.8 yards a carry. Elite skill at this ownership is worth taking even though Denver is fourth in DVOA against running backs. The risk is the 40.5 total and a Denver defense that is fifth overall.
James Cook (RB, BUF vs. BAL): He's 5.5%, 13th among running backs, with 627 yards at 5.4 a carry and six touchdowns. Baltimore is first in DVOA against running backs but only 15th against the run, because that number includes receiving work, and strong run games from Indianapolis, Dallas and Atlanta have had success against the Ravens. Buffalo is at about 29 implied points at home. The risk is that Cook has only 14 targets, so a trailing script would hurt him.
Bhayshul Tuten (RB, JAX vs. IND): He's 15.8%, seventh among running backs, so he's a discount to Chase Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson and not a truly low-owned play. He has 388 rushing yards on 94 carries at 4.1 a carry, and Indianapolis is 29th in rush DVOA at only about 18 implied points. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite at about 28, which points to a lead-protecting run script. The risk is a role that has produced only two touchdowns.
Wide receivers
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN at DET): He's 5.8%, 22nd among receivers, and Detroit is 30th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, without safety Kerby Joseph and with cornerback Roger McCreary questionable. Justin Jefferson has only 302 yards and a 20.3% target share in six games, which is the honest concern. The risk is the Minnesota offense around him, but the talent and the matchup are why he's here.
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI at DAL): He's 6.9% on DK and 18.0% on FanDuel, 19th among receivers. Dallas is 25th against No. 2 receivers and 32nd against No. 3 receivers, and Michael Wilson has a 24.4% target share. The risk is a modest 9.1 points a game.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ vs. LV): He's 7.0%, 18th among receivers, and Las Vegas is 27th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. Garrett Wilson has a 25.9% target share and 444 yards. The risk is Breece Hall's return pulling the Jets toward the run.
Tight ends and defense
Brock Bowers (TE, LV at NYJ): He's 4.4%, ninth among tight ends, and the best scorer at the position at 15.7 points a game on 52 targets in five games. With tight end Carter Runyon out, he faces even less competition for tight end targets. The risk is a neutral matchup, with the Jets 12th against tight ends, and a $7,600 price.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN at DET): He's 2.7%, 10th among tight ends. Detroit is 31st in DVOA against the position, allows 99.3 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the most in the league, and is without safety Kerby Joseph. T.J. Hockenson has a 21.0% target share. The risk is the Minnesota offense.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF vs. BAL): He's 1.5%, 15th among tight ends, and Baltimore is 29th in DVOA against the position. The risk is that he's questionable with a chest injury and wore a non-contact jersey Friday.
Jaguars DST (JAX vs. IND): They're 4.3%, ninth among defenses. Jacksonville is fourth in defensive DVOA and first against the run, and Daniel Jones has seven interceptions. The risk is that safety Antonio Johnson is out.
Bengals DST (CIN vs. TEN): They're 1.9%, 12th among defenses, in a game Cincinnati is favored by 12.5 and Tennessee is held to about 17 implied points. Cam Ward has five interceptions. The risk is a $3,800 price and safety Kyle Dugger being out.
Mid-owned plays that still beat the chalk
Rams DST (LAR vs. LAC): They're 8.8%, fourth among defenses, well below the Broncos at 19.3% and the Steelers at 14.7%, against the lowest-ranked offense in the group, a Chargers team that is winless and without Derwin James and Kayode Awosika. Justin Herbert has eight interceptions. The risk is the $3,500 price.
Drake Maye (QB, NE at MIA): He's 7.5%, sixth among quarterbacks, at 20.9 points a game with 13 touchdowns and 211 rushing yards. Miami is 29th in pass DVOA, has allowed 14 passing touchdowns in six games and has the league's lowest sack total. The risk is a thin receiver room, with A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson both out, and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Derrick Henry (RB, BAL at BUF): He's 13.0%, ninth among running backs. Buffalo has allowed nine touchdowns to running backs, the second most, and sits last in EPA. The risk is that Derrick Henry is averaging a career-low 3.9 yards per carry and Lamar Jackson's return changes his role.
Parker Washington (WR, JAX vs. IND): He's 11.4%, 10th among receivers, with a 25.7% target share and four touchdowns, and Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite. Indianapolis is 21st in pass DVOA. The risk is Jakobi Meyers (questionable) taking some of his work.
Top NFL DFS Leverage Plays
| Higher-Owned (A) | Sal | Own% | Leverage Play (B) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase (WR, DK) | $7,700 | 20.0% | Justin Jefferson | $7,100 | 5.8% |
| Hunter Henry (TE, DK) | $4,300 | 20.0% | T.J. Hockenson | $4,600 | 2.7% |
| Chase Brown (RB, DK) | $6,300 | 24.4% | Bhayshul Tuten | $5,900 | 15.8% |
| Dak Prescott (QB, DK) | $6,300 | 19.3% | Lamar Jackson | $6,800 | 5.1% |
| Steelers DST (DST, DK) | $3,300 | 14.7% | Jaguars DST | $3,700 | 4.3% |
Justin Jefferson off Ja'Marr Chase. Ja'Marr Chase is a play, so this is a differentiation option, not a fade. Detroit is 30th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and Tennessee is 12th, and Justin Jefferson costs $600 less at less than a third of the ownership. Jefferson's role is thinner, which is the price of the leverage.
T.J. Hockenson off Hunter Henry. Detroit is 31st against tight ends and Miami is 30th, so the matchups are close, but Detroit gives up 99.3 tight end yards a game to Miami's 70.1. T.J. Hockenson costs $300 more at a fraction of the ownership, and he has a 21.0% target share to Hunter Henry's 14.8%.
Bhayshul Tuten off Chase Brown. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite at about 28 implied points and Indianapolis is 29th in rush DVOA, so Bhayshul Tuten has the better run matchup, and he costs $400 less. He has 388 yards on 94 carries at 4.1 a carry. The ownership gap is smaller than the others on this list, and the risk is a role that has produced only two touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson off Dak Prescott. Buffalo is 28th in pass DVOA and Arizona is 32nd, so Dallas has the softer matchup, but Baltimore has a 54.5 total of its own and Lamar Jackson is at less than a third of the ownership for $500 more.
Jaguars DST off Steelers DST. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite and fourth in defensive DVOA against an Indianapolis offense with Daniel Jones' seven interceptions, for $400 more at less than a third of the ownership.
Best Contrarian NFL DFS Plays
Stack the stuff nobody's touching, and pair quarterbacks with their pass catchers, not their own running backs.
Ravens-Bills: Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers, and Josh Allen or James Cook as the bring-back. Buffalo is 26th in defensive DVOA and 31st against No. 1 receivers, and Baltimore has about 26 implied points in a 54.5 total. The risk is Lamar Jackson's rust in his first game back.
Raiders-Jets: Kirk Cousins with Brock Bowers, and Garrett Wilson as the bring-back. The Jets are 30th against No. 2 receivers and Las Vegas is last against running backs, in a 45.5-total game with the Jets favored by 1.5. Kirk Cousins is 0.5%. The risk is Raiders depth, with tight end Carter Runyon out.
Cardinals-Cowboys: Jacoby Brissett with Michael Wilson. Dallas is 30th in pass DVOA and 32nd against No. 3 receivers, and Arizona figures to be throwing from behind in a 54.5-total game. Jacoby Brissett is 8.2% and Michael Wilson is 6.9%. The risk is that Arizona has the lower implied total of the two 54.5-total games.
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence with Parker Washington. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite at about 28 implied points, Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes and 19.7 points a game, and Indianapolis is 21st in pass DVOA and 31st against No. 2 receivers. Trevor Lawrence is 11.3% and Parker Washington is 11.4%, so this stack carries some ownership. The risk is Jakobi Meyers being active.
Best GPP Plays Based on Ownership
Anchor with one chalk play that earned it, then build around it with the matchup-backed low-owned and leverage names instead of fading the board.
Chalk anchor: Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams or Rhamondre Stevenson. Gibbs is the talent play, Williams has the best script and touchdown equity, and Stevenson inherits the Patriots backfield.
Leverage pivot: Justin Jefferson off Ja'Marr Chase, or Bhayshul Tuten off Chase Brown.
Under-owned game stack: Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers and a Bills bring-back, or Kirk Cousins with Brock Bowers.
Defense: The Jaguars at 4.3% against the Broncos and Steelers pile-on.
Fade: Jonah Coleman and Wan'Dale Robinson. Both are above 25% and carried by price more than by skill.
Treat all of this as a read, not a promise. News breaks fast, so check inactives one more time before you lock, especially Breece Hall in New York, George Pickens in Dallas, DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo, Jaylen Waddle in Denver, and Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville.