Week 9 closed with a statement from Buffalo. The Bills beat the Vikings 23-6 on Monday night to improve to 7-1, and the Bears edged the Buccaneers 27-24 on Sunday night. Then the trade deadline hit, with Kirk Cousins heading from the Raiders back to Minnesota and Fernando Mendoza taking over in Las Vegas, and Thursday night gave us a Commanders 24-21 upset of the Giants on Stefon Diggs' touchdown with 57 seconds left. Now the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are on bye, which leaves 14 games, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got a game in Munich at 9:30 AM, two 6-2 teams fighting for first place in the AFC North, and a 55.5 total in Dallas. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.
Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Week
Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. First-place stakes, a deadline-day quarterback swap, and a trip to Germany all factor in.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday Night Football): Both teams are 6-2 with four-game winning streaks, and the winner takes first place in the AFC North. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total, and Joe Burrow is the MVP favorite at +200 after leading the league in passing yards per game, touchdowns, and completion percentage. Pittsburgh is coming off its bye with Aaron Rodgers, and it already beat the Bengals 30-27 in Week 3.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET): Kirk Cousins is expected to make his return debut for the Vikings after Minnesota acquired him from Las Vegas on Tuesday, and Kyler Murray (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday. Green Bay is a 3-point favorite with a 41.5 total at Lambeau. The Vikings are 6-2 after scoring just six points in the loss to Buffalo, and the Packers are 6-3 after a 45-27 romp at New England.
New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions (Sunday, 9:30 AM ET, Munich): The Lions are 2.5-point favorites at FC Bayern Munich Stadium with a total that has climbed to 49.5 and higher at some books. New England is 5-4 after a 45-27 loss to Green Bay, and Detroit is 6-2 after beating Miami 19-9. Drake Maye is healthy enough to practice in full, and A.J. Brown is back at practice, while the Lions are without Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET): The 49ers are 7-1 and a 3.5-point favorite with a 55.5 total, the highest on the board. Mike Evans (Achilles) is week-to-week and did not practice Wednesday, and Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams were resting. Dallas is 4-5 after a 27-23 win over Indianapolis, with George Pickens (hamstring) limited after missing last week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 PM ET): Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, makes his first NFL start after Las Vegas traded Cousins. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite with a 40.5 total, and Sam Darnold is out, so Drew Lock will start despite an elbow and oblique injury. The Seahawks are 5-4 and the Raiders are 4-5.
NFL Game of the Week
My NFL Game of the Week is Steelers at Bengals on Sunday Night Football, and it has everything you want. Two 6-2 teams on four-game winning streaks, first place in the AFC North on the line, and a Cincinnati offense that has been the best in football against a Pittsburgh defense that can get after the quarterback. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites with a 49.5 total.
Start with the Bengals, because Burrow is playing at an MVP level. He has thrown for 2,386 yards and 23 touchdowns with just six interceptions through eight games, and he was 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three scores in last week's 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid. Cincinnati's offense has been even better since Week 3, when the Steelers beat the Bengals 30-27 in Pittsburgh. That day Burrow threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns, Ja'Marr Chase caught nine passes for 98 yards and a score, and Tee Higgins added 90 yards and a touchdown. The concern is a Bengals defense that has allowed more than five yards per carry, and a team coming off an international trip.
Now the Steelers. Pittsburgh is rested after its bye and has won four straight, including a 27-6 win over Cleveland, though Rodgers has been uneven with 1,871 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions on the season. T.J. Watt led the league with 7.5 sacks entering the week and rested Wednesday before returning to limited practice Thursday, and Cameron Heyward and Darnell Washington also sat for rest. Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards in the first meeting, and the Steelers' best path is to run the ball, keep Burrow on the sideline, and make Rodgers' job simple.
The matchup that decides it is Watt and the Pittsburgh pass rush against a Bengals line that held Watt off the stat sheet in Week 3, with right tackle Amarius Mims doing most of that work. If Cincinnati keeps Burrow clean, he and Chase and Higgins can take over the game, but if Pittsburgh gets home without blitzing, the Steelers' secondary can survive. I lean Steelers to cover the +3.5 in a game that comes down to the last possession, and I'll take the over. This is the game I'd clear my Sunday night for.
My strong runner-up: Vikings at Packers. Cousins' return to Minnesota, a Murray hamstring injury, and a Green Bay team that just hung 45 on New England make this the most interesting early-afternoon game on the board.
Best Division Matchups
Six division games this week, and a few of them have real standings implications.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North): Both teams are 6-2, with Cleveland at 5-4 and Baltimore at 4-5 behind them. The winner takes first place, and Pittsburgh already owns a Week 3 win over Cincinnati.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (NFC North): Chicago leads the division at 7-2 and is on bye, with Minnesota (6-2) and Green Bay (6-3) chasing. Neither team can afford to fall further behind.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (AFC South): Jacksonville is 6-2 after a 33-10 win over Baltimore, and Tennessee is 1-7 coming off its bye. The Jaguars are 10.5-point favorites and added safety Jessie Bates and defensive tackle Jordan Davis at the trade deadline.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (NFC South): Both teams are 3-5, and with Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 3-6, the winner takes the lead in a division that is up for grabs. The Saints are 2.5-point favorites.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (AFC East): Buffalo is 7-1 and leads the division, while New England is 5-4 and the Jets are 2-7 after a 35-12 loss at Kansas City. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites with a 50.5 total.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (NFC West): San Francisco leads the division at 7-1, while the Rams (5-4) and Cardinals (3-6) are trying to stay in the race. Los Angeles is a 9.5-point favorite, and Puka Nacua is out with a knee injury.
Potential NFL Upsets This Week
Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.
Minnesota Vikings (+144 ML) @ Green Bay Packers (-3): Cousins knows the Vikings' system and coach Kevin O'Connell, and Minnesota's defense remains one of the league's best. Green Bay is a short favorite and has had success, but a 41.5 total keeps this game in underdog range.
Atlanta Falcons (+150 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3): Atlanta is 3-6 after a 34-17 loss to Cincinnati in Madrid, but the Falcons are at home and have one of the league's best backs in Bijan Robinson. Patrick Mahomes is healthy after an elbow scare against the Jets, so this is more about Kansas City laying points on the road.
Carolina Panthers (+120 ML) @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5): Carolina is healthier this week, with Jonathon Brooks, Xavier Legette, and Jaelan Phillips all back at practice. The Saints are beat up at running back and center, and a total that has climbed to 48.5 favors the underdog.
Cleveland Browns (+190 ML) vs. Houston Texans (-4.5): Deshaun Watson is back from the concussion protocol, and Cleveland is 5-4 at home. Houston has been on a tear, but 83 percent of tickets are on the Texans, which makes the Browns a contrarian play.
Dallas Cowboys (+175 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5): The 49ers are missing Evans and resting McCaffrey and Williams on Wednesday, and Dallas has the weapons to score in a 55.5-total game. George Pickens is a game-time call, but the Cowboys are home and have been competitive.
Best Games for Fantasy Football
If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (55.5 total): This is the highest total on the board. Brock Purdy and the 49ers' skill players, plus Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens (hamstring), all have paths to a big day.
New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions (49.5 total): Drake Maye has 15 touchdown passes in eight games, Jahmyr Gibbs has 847 rushing yards, and Jared Goff has 2,134 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (49.5 total): Burrow, Chase, and Higgins lead the league's best passing attack, and Jaylen Warren is a good fit for a Pittsburgh team that wants to run.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (48.5 total): The total has climbed five points from the open. Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and a healthier Carolina group take on Tyler Shough and a banged-up Saints backfield.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total): Mahomes is healthy after his elbow scare, and Bijan Robinson is the engine for Atlanta.
Best Games for DFS
For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.
New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions: A 49.5 total and a 2.5-point spread is the best game stack on the board, and a Munich kickoff gets you an early game to build around.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: A 49.5 total and a 3.5-point spread on Sunday night gives you a late-swap look at the best passing offense in football.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys: A 55.5 total and a 3.5-point spread. Purdy and Prescott are natural bring-backs, but check the final reports on Evans and Pickens.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints: A 48.5 total and a 2.5-point spread inside the division. Young's volume and Shough's pass-catchers give you both sides.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons: A 47.5 total and a 3-point spread. Mahomes and Robinson are the two stars to build around.
Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 11/15
Sunday, November 15 carries the bulk of the Week 10 slate, and it's stacked from a Munich kickoff to Sunday Night Football. Here's how the day breaks down by window.
Thursday Night Football (11/12)
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants: Final: Commanders 24, Giants 21. Jayden Daniels threw three touchdowns and two interceptions, and Stefon Diggs caught the winner from 32 yards out with 57 seconds left. Washington is 3-5-1 and the Giants are 5-3-1.
9:30 AM ET Window (Munich)
New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions: Lions favored by 2.5, total of 49.5. Drake Maye and A.J. Brown against Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs at FC Bayern Munich Stadium.
1:00 PM ET Window
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons: Chiefs favored by 3, total of 47.5. Patrick Mahomes, back at full practice after his elbow scare, against Bijan Robinson and a 3-6 Falcons team.
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns: Texans favored by 4.5, total of 40.5, the lowest of the early window. C.J. Stroud against Deshaun Watson, who is back after the concussion protocol.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Packers favored by 3, total of 41.5. Kirk Cousins' expected Vikings debut against Jordan Love at Lambeau.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Jaguars favored by 10.5, total of 46.5, the largest spread of the day. The 6-2 Jaguars against a 1-7 Titans team.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts: Colts favored by 3.5, total of 38.5, the lowest of the day. Miami is 1-7 with Malik Willis on injured reserve, and Indianapolis is 2-7.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints: Saints favored by 2.5, total of 48.5. Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard against Tyler Shough and a Saints team with Cesar Ruiz starting at center.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: Bills favored by 8.5, total of 50.5. Josh Allen and the 7-1 Bills against a 2-7 Jets team with Garrett Wilson working back from a concussion.
4:05 PM ET Window
Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders: Seahawks favored by 6.5, total of 40.5. Drew Lock against Fernando Mendoza in his first start.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals: Rams favored by 9.5, total of 39.5, the lowest on the board. Matthew Stafford and a Rams team without Puka Nacua against Carson Beck and the Cardinals.
4:25 PM ET Window
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys: 49ers favored by 3.5, total of 55.5, the highest of the day. Brock Purdy and the 7-1 49ers against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.
8:20 PM ET Window
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Bengals favored by 3.5, total of 49.5. Aaron Rodgers against Joe Burrow with first place in the AFC North on the line.
Monday Night Football (11/16)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens favored by 4.5, total of 38.5. Justin Herbert and the winless Chargers against a Ravens team that is 4-5 and without Lamar Jackson.
Wherever your weekend takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.