Week 5 opened with a shocker. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels made his second career start, and the winless Buccaneers went into Dallas and beat the Cowboys 24-16, behind a 165-yard, two-touchdown night from Bucky Irving. Now the rest of the board is here: the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye, and if you're hunting for the best NFL games to watch this weekend, building a DFS lineup, or just trying to figure out which NFL games this week deserve your couch time, we've got a London morning kickoff, a 4-0 team on the road in Seattle, and two games with a 54.5 total. Big spread? Somebody's about to get run off the field. Tight line? Strap in. Total pushing past 50? Every fantasy manager I know already has three tabs open on it.

Here's the whole slate, my Game of the Week, the division fights worth your attention, the live dogs I actually like, and where the fantasy and DFS value is hiding.

Best NFL Games to Watch This Week

Five games separate themselves from the pack as the best NFL games to watch this week, and it's not just the number on the spread. Undefeated records, quarterback injuries, and some wild line movement all factor in.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)

The 49ers are one of three remaining unbeaten teams, and Brock Purdy sits second in the MVP odds at +400, behind only Josh Allen. Seattle is 3-1 and has been one of the league's best defenses against the pass, so this is a real test for the most efficient offense in football. The 49ers have dealt with a pile of injuries, including a season-ending knee injury to Ricky Pearsall, but they've kept winning anyway. Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite at home, which tells you what the market thinks of both teams.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (Monday Night Football)

The two teams at the top of the Super Bowl odds meet at SoFi with a 54.5 total, and Matthew Stafford against Josh Allen is the kind of quarterback matchup you tune in for. Buffalo is coming off its first loss, a 29-26 defeat to the Patriots at home, and DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder injury. The Rams are 2-2 but have the receivers to keep up in a shootout, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both showed up in last week's win over the Eagles.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday Night Football)

This one swung hard. Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle in last week's 24-18 win over Tennessee and has only an outside chance of playing, which flipped Atlanta into a 3.5-point home favorite. The Falcons have won two straight since Michael Penix returned, including a 45-24 rout of the Saints on Monday night, and Bijan Robinson has been playing like an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. If Tyler Huntley starts, Derrick Henry becomes the whole Baltimore offense.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

The NFL's oldest rivalry is a 45.5 total with Chicago a field-goal favorite, even without Caleb Williams. Tyson Bagent has been steady in relief, going 25 of 34 for 268 yards in a 23-12 win over the Jets, and Kyle Monangai ran for 146 yards. Jordan Love has 1,041 passing yards and eight touchdowns through four games, and Christian Watson has been his go-to guy with 331 yards and four scores.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)

A 54.5 total is tied for the highest on the board, and the over is 4-0 in Detroit games this season. Jahmyr Gibbs has 353 rushing yards, and the Lions come in off a Sunday night loss at Carolina. Arizona is 1-3 and has lost three straight, with Jacoby Brissett throwing to Trey McBride and Michael Wilson while rookie Jeremiyah Love carries the backfield. Love is questionable with an ankle injury.

 

 

 

NFL Game of the Week

My NFL Game of the Week is 49ers at Seahawks, and I'm not overthinking it. San Francisco is 4-0 and the most efficient offense in the league; Seattle is one of the best defenses, and it's a divisional game in one of the loudest stadiums in football. Purdy has been surgical, and the Seahawks have the pass coverage to make him work for it. A 2.5-point spread says this is a coin flip. Give me this one.

My strong runner-up: Bills at Rams on Monday Night Football. The last two MVPs, the top two teams in the Super Bowl odds, and a 54.5 total. Allen has been historically good early, and Stafford has the receivers to answer every punch.

Best Division Matchups

Five division games this week, and a couple of them have real standings implications.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (NFC West)

The 49ers are 4-0, and the Seahawks are 3-1 in what is already the best division game of the year. Seattle is only a 2.5-point favorite at home.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (NFC North)

Chicago is 3-1, and Green Bay is 2-2 after a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay, and the Bears have won both games without Williams. Bagent against Love at Lambeau is a fascinating spot.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (NFC East)

The Giants lead the division at 3-1 behind Jameis Winston, who has won two straight with Jaxson Dart out for the season. Washington is 1-3, but Jayden Daniels is expected to return from a dislocated elbow, and the Commanders are favored by 3.5 at home.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (AFC West)

Denver is 2-2 after a loss to the 49ers, and the Chargers are 0-4 with Justin Herbert owning the NFL's lowest passer rating. The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites, and the Chargers are 0-4 against the spread.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (AFC South)

Somebody has to win, because both teams are 0-4. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite after a 34-30 loss to Dallas, and Tennessee comes off a 24-18 loss at Baltimore.

 

 

 

Potential NFL Upsets This Week

Want value on the underdog side? These are the NFL games this week where I think the numbers say an upset is squarely in play, and I'm not afraid to say it.

New Orleans Saints (+110 ML) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Minnesota is 4-0, but the Vikings rank 28th in EPA per play and 31st in offensive DVOA, and Kyler Murray has yet to find a rhythm. Tyler Shough has nine touchdown passes, and Chris Olave's 491 receiving yards are second in the NFL. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game, even coming off that 45-24 loss in Atlanta.

Green Bay Packers (+124 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (-3)

Caleb Williams won't play, and a Bears team leaning on a backup quarterback at Lambeau is vulnerable. Green Bay has been opportunistic, Love has been solid, and rookie kicker Trey Smack hit a 58-yarder last week.

Las Vegas Raiders (+160 ML) @ New England Patriots (-3.5)

Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdown passes to seven different receivers, and the Raiders have scored 26 or more in every game. Drake Maye finally had a good game against Buffalo, but he's still thrown seven interceptions this season.

Indianapolis Colts (+114 ML) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Both teams are 2-2, and Jonathan Taylor is the engine. Pittsburgh has allowed 13 sacks, and Rico Dowdle is questionable with a toe injury, which keeps the door open for Daniel Jones and the Colts.

Cleveland Browns (+110 ML) @ New York Jets (-2.5)

Deshaun Watson has led three fourth-quarter go-ahead drives, and Cleveland is 3-1 despite being outscored. The Jets are 1-3 with Geno Smith dealing with a wrist injury, and Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell are both doubtful.

Best Games for Fantasy Football

If you're setting lineups, these are the best NFL games this week to chase for fantasy production. The totals already told us which offenses are getting turned loose. Listen to them.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (54.5 total)

Stafford, Nacua, and Adams on one side, Allen and James Cook on the other. This is the shootout of the week.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (54.5 total)

Gibbs and Jared Goff lead an attack that has the over 4-0, and Arizona's backfield is down to Love after injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (46.5 total)

Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are the headline, though the 49ers have listed McCaffrey as resting on Wednesday with no injury designation.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots (45.5 total)

Cousins ties Purdy for the league lead in touchdown passes, and Brock Bowers has 16 catches for 202 yards in two games. Maye's rushing production is a real bonus for New England.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (43.5 total)

Bijan Robinson has been dominant since Penix returned, while Henry carries the Ravens either way.

 

 

 

Best Games for DFS

For DFS, you want a high total paired with a spread tight enough to keep both offenses on the field deep into the fourth quarter. That combo is where the real, usable value hides on any given slate.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

A 54.5 total with a 3-point spread is the premier game stack on the board, and Monday night gives you a late-swap look.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

A 46.5 total and a 2.5-point spread keep both sides live. Purdy stacks with his weapons, and Seattle has the receivers to bring back.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

A 45.5 total and a 3-point spread with Love and Watson against a Bears offense that has leaned on Monangai on the ground.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

A 45.5 total and 3.5-point spread make this a clean game stack, with Cousins and Bowers on one side and Maye's dual-threat ability on the other.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

A 42.5 total and a 1.5-point spread is as tight as it gets, and if Justin Jefferson plays, the Vikings have a ceiling. Olave and Shough give New Orleans a natural pairing.

Best NFL Games to Watch This Sunday 10/11

Sunday, October 11 carries the bulk of the Week 5 slate, and it's stacked from a London kickoff to Sunday night. Here's how the day breaks down by window.

9:30 AM ET Window (London)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars favored by 7, total of 42.5. The 3-1 Jaguars, who beat Cincinnati 22-17 last week, are favored with Trevor Lawrence playing well. The Eagles are 2-2 and coming off a collapse at home against the Rams, with Saquon Barkley (hamstring) questionable and DeVonta Smith also hurt.

1:00 PM ET Window

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Bears favored by 3, total of 45.5. Tyson Bagent against Jordan Love.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Texans favored by 7.5, total of 37.5, the lowest of the day. C.J. Stroud has 1,141 passing yards, and Nico Collins had seven catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns last week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins: Bengals favored by 7, total of 42.5. Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins, who had 11 catches for 157 yards last week, is dealing with a groin injury. Miami is 0-4 with Malik Willis and no De'Von Achane.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots: Patriots favored by 3.5, total of 45.5. Kirk Cousins against Drake Maye.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints: Vikings favored by 1.5, total of 42.5. Justin Jefferson is questionable and trending toward a return, and the Vikings have a bye next week.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets: Jets favored by 2.5, total of 39.5. Watson against Smith, with Breece Hall doubtful.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers favored by 2.5, total of 44.5. Aaron Rodgers has seven touchdown passes and has been sacked 13 times, and Jones and Taylor lead the Colts.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders: Commanders favored by 3.5, total of 43.5. Jameis Winston and Malik Nabers against Jayden Daniels, who is expected to return, with Terry McLaurin questionable.

4:05 PM ET Window

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers: Broncos favored by 3.5, total of 42.5. Bo Nix against Justin Herbert, with Ladd McConkey questionable (foot) and David Njoku on injured reserve.

4:25 PM ET Window

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals: Lions favored by 5.5, total of 54.5, tied for the highest of the day. Goff and Gibbs against Brissett and Love.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks favored by 2.5, total of 46.5. Purdy and the unbeaten 49ers on the road.

8:20 PM ET Window

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons: The Sunday Night Football headliner, Falcons favored by 3.5, total of 43.5. Penix and Bijan Robinson against a Ravens team that may be starting Tyler Huntley.

Monday Night Football (10/12)

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams: Rams favored by 3, total of 54.5. Allen against Stafford to close out the week.

Wherever your Sunday takes you, this slate delivers. Bookmark this page before kickoff, and check back every single week for the best NFL games to watch across Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all season long.