Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no receiving yards, touchdowns, or receptions without a target. We want the players on our rosters in fantasy football who will earn these targets because targets are the most important thing to look at when trying to separate one pass-catcher from another on a base level. Sure, the player that earned 160 targets may be a better fantasy option than the player who earned 110, but that doesn’t take into account the offenses these players are in, the target share percentages on their particular team, how deep down the field these targets were earned, and so on. Each week, we’ll take a weekly team-by-team look into these target earners and separate the wheat from the chaff. 

We got through the first round of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, and if you’re still playing for a championship: congratulations! It’s not the end of the journey, though, as we’ll have to trudge through a couple of grueling weeks before hoisting that trophy! To help you get there, we have the Week 15 Target Report, and we'll go through some team and player usage tendencies. Before we do that, let's dive into a legend of terms we'll be referencing:





Passes thrown in the direction of a receiver, whether intended or not.


Passes caught by a pass-catcher.

Rec. Yards

Yards gained by a reception by the pass-catcher.


Receiving touchdowns.

Air Yards

 Yards a thrown ball travels before it reaches the pass-catcher; on complete or incomplete passes. This statistic is significant for determining the quarterback and coaching staff's predictive value in an offense and their intent.

Air Yards Team Share %

A pass-catcher has a percentage share of air yards on their team in a given week.

Route %

Percentage of routes a pass-catcher runs on a pass play per dropback on their team.

Snap %

Percentage of snaps a pass-catcher plays on an offensive series on their team.

Target Share %

Percentage of targets a pass-catcher receives in a given week on their team.


A metric that measures how often a receiver is targeted when they are running a route. A higher % means that player is better at earning targets when he's on the field. A low raw route number or low route % coupled with a high TPRR % means that the pass-catcher is efficient at earning targets and could be in line for more routes depending on the team situation.


A metric that contextualizes the efficiency of a pass-catcher with how many receiving yards per route run. A much better metric than yards per reception.


aDOT is "average depth of target", and is the average depth of all targets caught or incomplete by a targeted pass-catcher.


RACR is a ratio dividing receiving yards by total air yards. It measures how many receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. The percentage of a team's air yards that a player commands based on his average depth of target and volume of targets. Most RACR numbers for running backs skew wildly by the nature of the running back position that rarely earns air yards.


WOPR is a weighted average that incorporates a player's share of team targets and share of team air yards.


PROE stands for “pass rate over expected”. The awesome nflfastR has play-by-play data going back to 1999 and for every offensive play for each NFL team since 2006, they provide an “xpass”. The xpass determines the probability a pass play is called and references factors such as down, distance, score, specific yardline, how much time is remaining and contextualizes that. A PROE is a team’s actual pass rate (percentage of pass plays divided by offensive snaps) minus their expected pass rate, which is determined with the xpass of each play. Using raw pass play percentage doesn’t factor in the context (if a team was down 21-3 with 11:03 remaining in the fourth quarter for instance) of the situation a team is in. PROE is a much better way to evaluate the intent and how aggressive an offense is with their gameplan.

A negative PROE indicates a team that is predicted to pass in given situations ran the ball more than average, while a positive PROE reflects the inverse.



Start Your Studs: Players you should be starting in all formats, regardless of matchup. Use your judgment in shallower leagues where players who are typically startable are plentiful.

Keep Them Rostered: Players that should be rostered in all formats assuming 12-team leagues with six-player benches. League size designations or other designations (bench stash, etc.) will be in parenthesis next to players for deeper leagues. As always, this is a general recommendation; depending on your league, use your best judgment.

Example: Quez Watkins (deeper 12 and 14 team), Samaje Perine (bench stash).

Dump ‘Em: Players that you should be dropping from your rosters. Use your judgment in deeper leagues where players with usefulness on waivers aren’t as plentiful.


NFL Week 15 Target Report

Arizona Cardinals

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
DeAndre HopkinsWR1176006827.9%95.0%92.3%31.4%28.9%1.586.20.6670.882
Marquise BrownWR841906225.4%92.5%89.2%22.9%21.6%0.517.80.5210.306
Trey McBrideTE545503012.3%77.5%86.2%14.3%16.1%1.776.00.3001.833
James ConnerRB53280-9-3.7%82.5%90.8%14.3%15.2%0.85-1.80.188-3.111
Maxx WilliamsTE2211093.7%12.5%20.0%5.7%40.0%
A.J. GreenWR2000124.9%57.5%56.9%5.7%8.7%
Robbie AndersonWR20007229.5%42.5%36.9%5.7%11.8%0.0036.00.2920.000
Keaontay IngramRB000000.0%12.5%12.3%0.0%0.0%
Greg DortchWR000000.0%7.5%9.2%0.0%0.0%
Stephen AndersonTE000000.0%5.0%6.2%0.0%0.0%

The newly-minted Arizona Colt McCoys got off to a rocky start as even he left the game with a concussion. In came somebody named Trace McSorley to play quarterback and if you’re rostering DeAndre Hopkins or Marquise Brown, you’re McSorley in need of some aspirin.

(I’ll be here all week, tip your waitress.)

McSorley will be starting in Week 16 as well, so we’re obviously downgrading the Cardinals’ pass-catchers a fair amount. Hopkins (7-60, 11 targets) and Brown (4-19, eight targets) saw over half of Arizona’s targets in Week 15 and should repeat that consolidation, but Brown is out of the starting conversation for me after two inefficient and disappointing weeks. Hopkins has thrived with bad quarterbacks in the past, but he still gets downgraded to high-end WR2 status for the fantasy playoffs.


Week 15 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DeAndre HopkinsJames Conner

Keep Them Rostered: Marquise BrownTrey McBride (14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Atlanta Falcons

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Drake LondonWR1177009646.6%80.6%81.1%42.3%37.9%2.418.70.9610.729
MyCole PruittTE32200178.3%36.1%55.4%11.5%23.1%1.545.70.2311.176
Cordarrelle PattersonRB31003718.0%50.0%50.0%11.5%16.7%0.0012.30.2990.000
Olamide ZaccheausWR30004521.8%83.3%81.1%11.5%10.0%0.0015.00.3260.000
Avery WilliamsRB2210010.5%11.1%13.5%7.7%50.0%2.500.50.11910.000
Anthony FirkserTE2000115.3%41.7%31.1%7.7%13.3%
Damiere ByrdWR100041.9%50.0%40.5%3.8%5.6%
Tyler AllgeierRB11-30-5-2.4%30.6%48.6%3.8%9.1%-0.27-5.00.0410.600
Parker HesseTE000000.0%13.9%56.8%0.0%0.0%
KhaDarel HodgeWR000000.0%19.4%17.6%0.0%0.0%
Keith SmithFB000000.0%0.0%14.9%0.0%0.0%
Feleipe FranksQB000000.0%5.6%5.4%0.0%0.0%
Caleb HuntleyRB000000.0%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%

Game 1 of the Desmond Ridder experience did not go so great. Ridder completed half of his 26 pass attempts for only 97 yards. Drake London (7-70, 11 targets) at the very least caught more than half of Ridder’s completions on the day as well as 70 of his 97 passing yards.

We’ll see in these next few games to round out the season whether the Falcons should have any trust in Ridder moving forward, but for fantasy purposes, you just can’t start anybody at all in this passing game.


Week 15 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Not in this economy.

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler AllgeierDrake London (deep 12 and 14 team), Cordarrelle Patterson (deep 12 and 14 team), Desmond Ridder (deep 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Baltimore Ravens

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Mark AndrewsTE733105933.0%91.4%92.1%25.0%21.9%0.978.40.6060.525
Demarcus RobinsonWR662903217.9%77.1%63.5%21.4%22.2%
Devin DuvernayWR32290116.1%65.7%71.4%10.7%13.0%
Isaiah LikelyTE32180158.4%60.0%44.4%10.7%14.3%0.865.00.2191.200
DeSean JacksonWR30003419.0%42.9%31.7%10.7%20.0%0.0011.30.2940.000
Josh OliverTE2213021.1%28.6%41.3%7.1%20.0%1.301.00.1156.500
James ProcheWR20002815.6%8.6%4.8%7.1%66.7%0.0014.00.2170.000
Justice HillRB11150-2-1.1%45.7%38.1%3.6%6.3%0.94-2.00.046-7.500
J.K. DobbinsRB113000.0%17.1%38.1%3.6%16.7%0.500.00.0540.000
Patrick RicardFB000000.0%17.1%55.6%0.0%0.0%
Gus EdwardsRB000000.0%2.9%17.5%0.0%0.0%
Nick BoyleTE000000.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%

This passing game is dead. Tyler Huntley is #bad.

Even Mark Andrews (3-31, seven targets) is feeling the effects of it. It’s bad out here.

Save us, Lamar Jackson!


Week 15 Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Mark Andrews (we must press forward, gang), Lamar Jackson (when healthy), J.K. Dobbins

Keep Them Rostered: Demarcus Robinson (14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Buffalo Bills

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Stefon DiggsWR9560010926.1%91.3%85.9%23.7%21.4%1.4312.10.5380.550
Dawson KnoxTE869818620.6%80.4%82.1%21.1%21.6%2.6510.80.4601.140
Gabe DavisWR645608720.8%100.0%97.4%15.8%13.0%1.2214.50.3830.644
Isaiah McKenzieWR5224010324.6%63.0%56.4%13.2%17.2%0.8320.60.3700.233
Devin SingletaryRB43280-5-1.2%50.0%60.3%10.5%17.4%1.22-1.30.150-5.600
James CookRB3251143.3%32.6%35.9%7.9%20.0%0.334.70.1420.357
Quintin MorrisTE11141143.3%13.0%16.7%2.6%16.7%2.3314.00.0631.000
Nyheim HinesRB1110110.2%6.5%3.8%2.6%33.3%3.331.00.04110.000
Cole BeasleyWR119092.2%15.2%14.1%2.6%14.3%
Khalil ShakirWR000000.0%17.4%28.2%0.0%0.0%
Reggie GilliamFB000000.0%6.5%9.0%0.0%0.0%

Everybody and their mother was scared off of this game for fantasy purposes earlier in the day because of the potential snowy conditions, but we didn’t get any of that snow until late. So all in all, it was cold, and the offenses (for the most part) were operating pretty normally. 

Josh Allen is a freak of nature and threw for four touchdowns and 77 rushing yards on the ground. That’s #good! 

The touchdowns were to bit part players (Quintin MorrisJames CookNyheim HinesDawson Knox) and not many of the trusted assets we’re universally starting. That’s #bad.

Knox has been playing this long-con kind of game where he puts up two top-five performances at TE only to go “full-Tonyan” and disappear during the fantasy championship. A tale as old as time. Still, Knox’s 6-98-1 line on eight targets (80% routes) paced the Bills in Week 15 in the production aspect, where Stefon Diggs (5-60) led the team in targets with nine.


Week 15 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen

Keep Them Rostered: Dawson KnoxDevin Singletary, Gabe Davis (deep 12 team), Isaiah McKenzie (deep 12 and 14 team), James Cook (deep 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Carolina Panthers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
DJ MooreRB6573111151.9%100.0%95.7%31.6%21.4%2.6118.50.8370.658
Chuba HubbardRB3357010.5%57.1%63.0%15.8%18.8%3.560.30.24057.000
Terrace MarshallWR335103817.8%89.3%89.1%15.8%12.0%2.0412.70.3611.342
Shi SmithWR312402310.7%60.7%45.7%15.8%17.6%1.417.70.3121.043
Tommy TrembleTE32200188.4%46.4%52.2%15.8%23.1%1.546.00.2961.111
Laviska ShenaultWR10002310.7%21.4%28.3%5.3%16.7%0.0023.00.1540.000
Ian ThomasTE000000.0%17.9%45.7%0.0%0.0%
D'Onta ForemanRB000000.0%7.1%30.4%0.0%0.0%
Stephen SullivanTE000000.0%35.7%28.3%0.0%0.0%
Raheem BlackshearRB000000.0%7.1%4.3%0.0%0.0%
Giovanni RicciFB000000.0%7.1%4.3%0.0%0.0%

Now for our latest update on the only worthwhile pass-catching option that exists in Carolina, DJ Moore is #good. When everything lines up, of course.

Moore (5-73-1, six targets) still can’t really be trusted weekly, not with Sam Darnold, and especially not in the fantasy playoffs. That’s a shame because we know the talent he has. I don’t know about you all, but I cannot wait to see what quarterback lands in Carolina in 2023 and declare him to be the best that Moore has ever played with. I’m a sicko.


Week 15 Carolina Panthers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: #FreeDJMoore

Keep Them Rostered: DJ MooreD’Onta ForemanChuba Hubbard

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Chicago Bears

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Cole KmetTE542501811.4%87.9%100.0%23.8%17.2%0.863.60.4371.389
Dante PettisWR41130117.0%81.8%79.7%19.0%14.8%0.482.80.3341.182
David MontgomeryRB3338185.1%48.5%67.8%14.3%18.8%2.382.70.2504.750
Nsimba WebsterWR321402213.9%21.2%16.9%14.3%42.9%
Byron PringleWR223913824.1%93.9%89.8%9.5%6.5%1.2619.00.3111.026
Velus JonesWR21304931.0%69.7%67.8%9.5%8.7%0.1324.50.3600.061
Equanimeous St. BrownWR11200138.2%6.1%5.1%4.8%50.0%10.0013.00.1291.538
Trestan EbnerRB1000-1-0.6%6.1%8.5%4.8%50.0%0.00-1.00.0670.000
Darrynton EvansRB000000.0%33.3%27.1%0.0%0.0%
Ryan GriffinTE000000.0%9.1%25.4%0.0%0.0%
Khari BlasingameFB000000.0%0.0%11.9%0.0%0.0%

The Bears were minus Chase Claypool, so devoid of any actual talent besides Cole Kmet (4-25, five targets), you’re not rostering anybody here regarding pass-catchers. Not Byron Pringle (2-39-1, two targets), not anybody.

Have some dignity.


Week 15 Chicago Bears Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Fields

Keep Them Rostered: David Montgomery, Cole Kmet

Dump ‘Em: Chase Claypool is an easy drop based on his routes share never getting to where we want our fantasy assets, the state of the Bears offense, and his knee injury.


Cincinnati Bengals

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Ja'Marr ChaseWR13760111354.1%100.0%90.9%34.2%31.0%1.438.70.8920.531
Tee HigginsWR853316229.7%95.2%80.3%21.1%20.0%0.837.80.5230.532
Joe MixonRB65330-6-2.9%45.2%63.6%15.8%31.6%1.74-1.00.217-5.500
Tyler BoydWR553512813.4%78.6%60.6%13.2%15.2%
Mitchell WilcoxTE33341178.1%78.6%90.9%7.9%9.1%
Trenton IrwinWR215000.0%23.8%24.2%5.3%20.0%0.500.00.0790.000
Samaje PerineRB1100-5-2.4%31.0%37.9%2.6%7.7%0.00-5.00.0230.000
Devin AsiasiTE000000.0%7.1%25.8%0.0%0.0%
Stanley MorganWR000000.0%4.8%15.2%0.0%0.0%
Trent TaylorWR000000.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%

The Bengals stayed true to who they are as Joe Burrow passed, passed, and passed their way to the highest PROE of Week 15 (+12.1%) by a wide margin. The game script helped as the Bengals found themselves down 17-0 pretty quickly and needed to throw. They are one of the few teams that will embrace their strengths and not “two yards and a cloud of dust” their way to long third downs and eventually, punts to give away possessions. Why more teams willingly put themselves behind the eight-ball and run for the sake of running when down two or more scores is baffling. Somehow, these coaches still continue to have jobs, but that’s a conversation for another time.

If it’s fantasy goodness you want, then all three of the big wide receivers (plus Joe Mixon) each caught a touchdown. Ja’Marr Chase (7-60-1, 13 targets), Tee Higgins (5-33-1, eight targets, 95% routes coming back from Week 14’s “hamstring-gate”), Tyler Boyd (5-25-1, 79% routes), and Mixon (5-33, six targets; 11 carries, 21 yards) combined for 84% of the team’s targets in Week 15 and that’s been the modus operandi all season. With Hayden Hurst out, Mitchell Wilcox (3-34-1, three targets) ran routes on 79% of dropbacks and scored a touchdown himself. He’s not in starting consideration by any means because if it was difficult enough to start Hurst, we’re not going to the well with Wilcox.


Week 15 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee HigginsJoe Burrow, Joe Mixon

Keep Them Rostered: Tyler BoydSamaje Perine (deep 12 and 14 team) 

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Cleveland Browns

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Amari CooperWR645804035.7%87.9%72.7%23.1%20.7%
David NjokuTE632801311.6%72.7%93.9%23.1%25.0%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR443111917.0%84.8%77.3%15.4%14.3%
Daylen BaldwinWR222502522.3%15.2%18.2%7.7%40.0%5.0012.50.2721.000
Harrison BryantTE227065.4%27.3%40.9%7.7%22.2%0.783.00.1531.167
Michael WoodsWR214087.1%60.6%62.1%7.7%10.0%
Nick ChubbRB200065.4%63.6%69.7%7.7%9.5%
Demetric FeltonRB115000.0%6.1%6.1%3.8%50.0%2.500.00.0580.000
Kareem HuntRB1130-5-4.5%18.2%25.8%3.8%16.7%0.50-5.00.026-0.600
Pharaoh BrownTE000000.0%12.1%19.7%0.0%0.0%
D'Ernest JohnsonRB000000.0%0.0%4.5%0.0%0.0%

This game was a slog, and while it’s unfair to say despite having to be sandwiched between the potential game of the regular season (Colts/Vikings) and the Bills/Dolphins, it was a bathroom break of a game. Or a nap. Either way, I don’t blame you if you tuned out.

Deshaun Watson only threw the ball 28 times and could only muster 161 yards and a touchdown to Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-31-1, four targets). Amari Cooper (4-58, six targets) and David Njoku (3-28, six targets) were present and accounted for with humdrum efforts that embody the spirit of this game which saw a combined 16 points between both teams.


Week 15 Cleveland Browns Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amari CooperNick Chubb, David Njoku

Keep Them Rostered: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Deshaun WatsonKareem Hunt

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Dallas Cowboys

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Noah BrownWR964929536.1%76.5%74.7%30.0%34.6%1.8810.60.7030.516
CeeDee LambWR7712607628.9%100.0%93.3%23.3%20.6%3.7110.90.5521.658
Tony PollardRB54310269.9%38.2%54.7%16.7%38.5%2.385.20.3191.192
Dalton SchultzTE421503613.7%88.2%97.3%13.3%13.3%0.509.00.2960.417
Ezekiel ElliottRB2213020.8%41.2%50.7%6.7%14.3%0.931.00.1056.500
Michael GallupWR212083.0%91.2%90.7%6.7%6.5%
Peyton HendershotTE11201207.6%17.6%22.7%3.3%16.7%3.3320.00.1031.000
Sean McKeonTE000000.0%5.9%6.7%0.0%0.0%
James WashingtonWR000000.0%5.9%5.3%0.0%0.0%
KaVontae TurpinWR000000.0%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%

It was a tale of two production streams from the Cowboys, who got a really nice game out of CeeDee Lamb (7-126, seven targets) but all of the touchdowns went to Noah Brown (6-49-2, team-leading nine targets, 77% routes) and a sideline deep ball to backup tight end Peyton Hendershot (1-20-1). Not ideal, but this is the other side of variance — especially when the Cowboys' offense is pretty efficient and high-powered when they want to be.

Michael Gallup (1-2, two targets) is getting to be a harder and harder start, especially now that we’re in the fantasy playoffs. He has just TWO top-36 finishes among receivers in 11 games, and both of those finishes required touchdowns. He’s just not getting there with volume, and he’s a desperation flex play at this point despite the offense he plays in.


Week 15 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Dak Prescott, CeeDee LambTony Pollard, Ezekiel ElliottDalton Schultz

Keep Them Rostered: Michael Gallup (deep 12 and 14 team), Noah Brown (deep 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Denver Broncos

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jerry JeudyWR877603025.9%90.9%73.9%30.8%26.7%2.533.80.6432.533
Brandon JohnsonWR433005547.4%66.7%59.4%15.4%18.2%1.3613.80.5630.545
Marlon MackRB44260-8-6.9%30.3%29.0%15.4%40.0%2.60-2.00.182-3.250
Eric TomlinsonTE3328186.9%18.2%50.7%11.5%50.0%4.672.70.2213.500
Greg DulcichTE2111032.6%84.8%68.1%7.7%7.1%0.391.50.1333.667
Eric SaubertTE21502622.4%60.6%59.4%7.7%10.0%0.2513.00.2720.192
Latavius MurrayRB1112021.7%39.4%63.8%3.8%7.7%0.922.00.0706.000
Freddie SwainWR1190-3-2.6%51.5%55.1%3.8%5.9%0.53-3.00.040-3.000
Andrew BeckFB100032.6%6.1%30.4%3.8%50.0%
Devine OzigboRB000000.0%3.0%7.2%0.0%0.0%
Jalen VirgilWR000000.0%3.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%
Montrell WashingtonWR000000.0%3.0%1.4%0.0%0.0%

Big Fantasy™ requires me to pay attention (somewhat) to these collective stiffs known as the Broncos, but let’s keep this short and sweet.

No Courtland Sutton yet again, so Jerry Jeudy (7-76, eight targets, 91% routes) was fine and the only pass-catcher remaining worth rostering stunk up the joint. That was Greg Dulcich (1-11, two targets, 85% routes), by the way. Was it Dulcich’s fault? Well, the quarterback WAS Brett Rypien, so we can certainly chalk any disappointment to that. 

Marlon Mack (4-26, four targets, 30% routes) did jump into more of a receiving role in Week 15. The offense is pretty dismal. You can’t trust anybody here minus Jeudy (and that’s pushing it), especially in the fantasy playoffs.


Week 15 Denver Broncos Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Not around these parts.

Keep Them Rostered: Courtland Sutton (when healthy), Jerry Jeudy, Greg DulcichLatavius Murray (deeper 12 and 14 team), Russell Wilson (deeper 12 and 14 team), Marlon Mack (deeper 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Detroit Lions

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR1077606433.5%89.5%83.8%27.8%29.4%
D'Andre SwiftRB95230-1-0.5%42.1%39.7%25.0%56.3%1.44-0.10.371-23.000
Kalif RaymondWR655304020.9%34.2%29.4%16.7%46.2%
Brock WrightTE21511168.4%21.1%47.1%5.6%25.0%6.388.00.1423.188
DJ CharkWR211802312.0%84.2%76.5%5.6%6.3%0.5611.50.1680.783
Justin JacksonRB21150-8-4.2%31.6%32.4%5.6%16.7%1.25-4.00.054-1.875
James MitchellTE2212063.1%21.1%23.5%5.6%25.0%1.503.00.1052.000
Shane ZylstraTE114042.1%42.1%36.8%2.8%6.3%
Jason CabindaFB100021.0%10.5%14.7%2.8%25.0%
Jameson WilliamsWR10004523.6%15.8%19.1%2.8%16.7%0.0045.00.2070.000
Josh ReynoldsWR000000.0%60.5%58.8%0.0%0.0%
Jamaal WilliamsRB000000.0%13.2%30.9%0.0%0.0%

The Lions were on the winning end of a slugfest with the Jets that didn’t see too much production given the opportunities afforded. Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-76, 10 targets) is week-in, week-out stud. D’Andre Swift (5-23) saw nine targets but is still splitting time here with Jamaal Williams. Still, he’s getting what we’re looking for from a passing-game standpoint, so we’ll take it as a low-end RB2.

DJ Chark (1-18, two targets) and Josh Reynolds (zero targets) were the only other receivers besides St. Brown to see more than 60% of routes in Week 15.


Week 15 Detroit Lions Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Keep Them Rostered: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, D.J. Chark, Jared GoffJameson Williams

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Green Bay Packers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Christian WatsonWR644601814.3%93.9%87.3%21.4%19.4%1.483.00.4212.556
Romeo DoubsWR555503729.4%30.3%32.4%17.9%50.0%5.507.40.4731.486
Aaron JonesRB54361-13-10.3%57.6%56.3%17.9%26.3%1.89-2.60.196-2.769
Randall CobbWR433202923.0%51.5%40.8%14.3%23.5%1.887.30.3751.103
AJ DillonRB3335000.0%39.4%36.6%10.7%23.1%2.690.00.1610.000
Allen LazardWR21703729.4%97.0%94.4%7.1%6.3%0.2218.50.3130.189
Robert TonyanTE2140118.7%45.5%52.1%7.1%13.3%
Marcedes LewisTE1114075.6%21.2%40.8%3.6%14.3%
Josiah DeguaraTE000000.0%30.3%28.2%0.0%0.0%
Tyler DavisTE000000.0%0.0%15.5%0.0%0.0%
Patrick TaylorRB000000.0%6.1%12.7%0.0%0.0%
Samori ToureWR000000.0%0.0%2.8%0.0%0.0%

The Packers skewed to the run as usual and didn’t need to expend many resources here against a woefully depleted Rams team.

Allen Lazard (1-7, two targets) has fallen by the wayside to the two rookie wide receivers, and he profiles much better as a team’s WR3 who is a better real-life NFL player than a team’s top target who was being selected in the seventh round in drafts before the season.

Romeo Doubs (5-55, five targets) returned to the lineup and only ran routes on 30% of dropbacks but seeing him command five targets on just 10 routes (50% TPRR) is a good sign for him gaining more routes through the home stretch as the Packers try to punch up and sneak into the playoffs.

Much was talked about Aaron Rodgers’ “hand signals” this week leading up to Monday’s contest, and it seems that Christian Watson (4-46, six targets) missed one, as he had a touchdown lined up for him at the end of the game, but some miscommunication prevented that. He’s a young receiver, things happen. 


Week 15 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Aaron JonesChristian Watson

Keep Them Rostered: AJ DillonAllen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers, Romeo Doubs (deep 12 and 14 team) 

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Houston Texans

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Chris MooreWR944209138.2%90.9%87.3%33.3%30.0%1.4010.10.7680.462
Jordan AkinsTE632214016.8%54.5%47.6%22.2%33.3%
Rex BurkheadRB42170187.6%27.3%19.0%14.8%44.4%1.894.50.2750.944
Amari RodgersWR322604117.2%51.5%50.8%11.1%17.6%1.5313.70.2870.634
Teagan QuitorianoTE2181125.0%63.6%81.0%7.4%9.5%0.386.00.1460.667
Brevin JordanTE119093.8%9.1%7.9%3.7%33.3%
Royce FreemanRB1150-2-0.8%12.1%38.1%3.7%25.0%1.25-2.00.050-2.500
Phillip DorsettWR10002912.2%90.9%85.7%3.7%3.3%0.0029.00.1410.000
Dare OgunbowaleRB000000.0%42.4%42.9%0.0%0.0%
Jeff DriskelQB000000.0%3.0%28.6%0.0%0.0%
Mason SchreckTE000000.0%9.1%15.9%0.0%0.0%
Troy HairstonFB000000.0%3.0%12.7%0.0%0.0%

The Texans stink. Somehow they’ve stayed with the Cowboys and Chiefs in consecutive weeks which seems to defy all facets of conventional logic and wisdom, but that’s the NFL in a nutshell. We press forward…

The Texans threw for a “robust” 129 yards, and Chris Moore (4-42, nine targets, 91% routes) led the way in all receiving volume categories. Something named Teagan Quitoriano (1-8-1, two targets) scored a touchdown on 63% of routes. It’s a hellscape. Stay clear.


Week 15 Houston Texans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Nope.

Keep Them Rostered: Chris Moore (I guess in deep 14 team leagues?)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Indianapolis Colts

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Chris MooreWR944209138.2%90.9%87.3%33.3%30.0%1.4010.10.7680.462
Jordan AkinsTE632214016.8%54.5%47.6%22.2%33.3%
Rex BurkheadRB42170187.6%27.3%19.0%14.8%44.4%1.894.50.2750.944
Amari RodgersWR322604117.2%51.5%50.8%11.1%17.6%1.5313.70.2870.634
Teagan QuitorianoTE2181125.0%63.6%81.0%7.4%9.5%0.386.00.1460.667
Brevin JordanTE119093.8%9.1%7.9%3.7%33.3%
Royce FreemanRB1150-2-0.8%12.1%38.1%3.7%25.0%1.25-2.00.050-2.500
Phillip DorsettWR10002912.2%90.9%85.7%3.7%3.3%0.0029.00.1410.000
Dare OgunbowaleRB000000.0%42.4%42.9%0.0%0.0%
Jeff DriskelQB000000.0%3.0%28.6%0.0%0.0%
Mason SchreckTE000000.0%9.1%15.9%0.0%0.0%
Troy HairstonFB000000.0%3.0%12.7%0.0%0.0%

Even in a game where the Colts lost Jonathan Taylor for the game early on, Jeff Saturday couldn’t help himself by giving Zack Moss 24 carries and trying to #establishit to no avail. Moss is #bad. So is Saturday.

In a game where the Colts scored 36 points, just ONE touchdown came from the offense — a dump-off touchdown to Deon JacksonMichael Pittman (10-60, 14 targets) earned 45% of the team’s targets by himself, and nobody else earned more than four.

This offense is truly in shambles without Taylor, who was placed on IR with an ankle injury. The team also shifted quarterbacks from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles, seemingly for the remainder of the season. It’s pretty vomit-inducing at this point.


Week 15 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Michael Pittman

Keep Them Rostered: Zack Moss, Deon Jackson (12 and 14 team PPR formats)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Jacksonville Jaguars

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Christian KirkWR10692013535.2%100.0%88.6%24.4%22.2%2.0413.50.6120.681
Evan EngramTE1086204612.0%88.9%85.7%24.4%25.0%1.554.60.4501.348
Zay JonesWR86109310226.6%97.8%95.7%19.5%18.2%2.4812.80.4791.069
Marvin JonesWR621717920.6%75.6%65.7%14.6%17.6%0.5013.20.3640.215
Travis EtienneRB3224020.5%55.6%72.9%7.3%12.0%0.960.70.11312.000
Jamal AgnewWR32120225.7%8.9%14.3%7.3%75.0%
JaMycal HastyRB1120-2-0.5%24.4%22.9%2.4%9.1%0.18-2.00.033-1.000
Chris ManhertzTE000000.0%4.4%22.9%0.0%0.0%
Tim JonesWR000000.0%8.9%12.9%0.0%0.0%
Dan ArnoldTE000000.0%2.2%10.0%0.0%0.0%
Snoop ConnerRB000000.0%4.4%4.3%0.0%0.0%
Luke FarrellTE000000.0%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.0%

For fans of NBA Jam, Trevor Lawrence would easily be categorized as “on fire!” at this stage. He’s thrown for 300 yards and at least three passing touchdowns in three of his last four games and his receiving weapons have obviously come along for the ride.

Zay Jones (6-109-3, eight targets) is first and foremost along for that ride over the past month, but as we saw with the Evan Engram (8-62, 10 targets) blow-up game last week, it seems like it’s the production carousel that’s just making its way around to the weapons here vs. hyper-concentrating to just one guy. It’s great for the offense as a whole, as defenses cannot key in on just one player. For fantasy, it’s not as great, but it makes useful options that we can plug in every week.

Christian Kirk (6-92, 10 targets) still had a solid game as well, so if you bought into this offense to any degree, you’re in on the ground floor. Imagine when this offense has Calvin Ridley in 2023?


Week 15 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Trevor Lawrence

Keep Them Rostered: Zay Jones, Evan Engram

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Kansas City Chiefs

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Travis KelceTE101010505525.1%80.4%75.3%24.4%27.0%2.845.50.5421.909
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR10108806027.4%87.0%88.3%24.4%25.0%
Jerick McKinnonRB88701-9-4.1%67.4%62.3%19.5%25.8%2.26-1.10.264-7.778
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR532615123.3%67.4%53.2%12.2%16.1%0.8410.20.3460.510
Noah GrayTE3331020.9%50.0%55.8%7.3%13.0%1.350.70.11615.500
Justin WatsonWR20006529.7%52.2%64.9%4.9%8.3%0.0032.50.2810.000
Isiah PachecoRB11110-5-2.3%21.7%35.1%2.4%10.0%1.10-5.00.021-2.200
Kadarius ToneyWR1150-4-1.8%6.5%6.5%2.4%33.3%1.67-4.00.024-1.250
Jody FortsonTE100041.8%19.6%15.6%2.4%11.1%
Skyy MooreWR000000.0%19.6%37.7%0.0%0.0%
Ronald JonesRB000000.0%0.0%2.6%0.0%0.0%
Michael BurtonFB000000.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%

PSA: You HAVE to start Jerick McKinnon at this point.

McKinnon (8-70-1, eight targets, 67% routes) seems like the league-winning running back to have at this point outside of the obvious guys and he’s been doing fine on the ground but making his money through the air with the hyper-efficient Patrick Mahomes, who completed 36 of 41 pass attempts.

Both Travis Kelce (10-105) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (10-88) nabbed 10 targets apiece and earned awesome volume in a surprisingly competitive game. Between Kelce, JuJu, and McKinnon, they accounted for 68% of the team’s targets. 


Week 15 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Jerick McKinnon

Keep Them Rostered: Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Dump ‘Em: Can drop Skyy Moore as this point, as he’s not slated to get a huge jump in routes so close to the fantasy championship. Even if he did in Week 16, you’re rarely if ever starting him the following week.


Las Vegas Raiders

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Davante AdamsWR9428010924.2%100.0%98.5%28.1%22.0%0.6812.10.5910.257
Mack HollinsWR8440117639.0%87.8%88.2%25.0%22.2%1.1122.00.6480.227
Darren WallerTE33481408.9%65.9%48.5%9.4%11.1%1.7813.30.2031.200
Josh JacobsRB32170102.2%53.7%75.0%9.4%13.6%0.773.30.1561.700
Hunter RenfrowWR311405211.5%58.5%42.6%9.4%12.5%0.5817.30.2210.269
Keelan ColeWR225014910.9%26.8%23.5%6.3%18.2%4.5524.50.1701.020
Foster MoreauTE22200122.7%43.9%55.9%6.3%11.1%
Ameer AbdullahRB2214030.7%24.4%22.1%6.3%20.0%1.401.50.0984.667
Jakob JohnsonFB000000.0%4.9%22.1%0.0%0.0%
Zamir WhiteRB000000.0%2.4%4.4%0.0%0.0%

Derek Carr’s inefficient day still produced three passing touchdowns (or two if you’re a Patriots fan) so there’s some silver (and black) lining there. In a game where the Raiders threw the ball downfield a ton (451 air yards — second-most in Week 15), they just could not connect with anybody for meaningful gains besides the one throw to Keelan Cole (2-50-1, two targets) that arguably shouldn’t have counted.

Davante Adams (4-28, nine targets) and Mack Hollins (4-40-1, eight targets) put up 53% of the team’s 32 total targets and only had a combined eight catches for 68 yards to show for it. The return of both Darren Waller 3-48-1, three targets, 66% routes) and Hunter Renfrow (1-14, three targets) should have made the offense MORE efficient, but both played relatively little compared to their typical healthy utilization.


Week 15 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams

Keep Them Rostered: Darren WallerHunter Renfrow, Derek CarrMack Hollins

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Los Angeles Chargers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Keenan AllenWR988607926.3%97.8%88.7%23.7%20.5%1.958.80.5401.089
Mike WilliamsWR8467011939.7%95.6%88.7%21.1%18.6%1.5614.90.5930.563
Gerald EverettTE64420237.7%62.2%62.0%15.8%21.4%1.503.80.2911.826
Josh PalmerWR554903210.7%66.7%64.8%13.2%16.7%1.636.40.2721.531
Donald ParhamTE33350175.7%22.2%31.0%7.9%30.0%3.505.70.1582.059
Austin EkelerRB32120-1-0.3%60.0%69.0%7.9%11.1%0.44-0.30.116-12.000
DeAndre CarterWR21150186.0%17.8%22.5%5.3%25.0%1.889.00.1210.833
Joshua KelleyRB2170134.3%13.3%35.2%5.3%33.3%
Tre' McKittyTE000000.0%11.1%32.4%0.0%0.0%
Zander HorvathFB000000.0%2.2%2.8%0.0%0.0%

The relatively stingy Titans defense held the Chargers in check by only allowing 17 points, and while Justin Herbert threw for 313 yards, he didn’t throw a touchdown pass as both touchdowns came from the run game. You can set your watch to Keenan Allen (8-86, nine targets) and Mike Williams (4-67, eight targets) earning volume and Allen is as efficient as ever.

Not much really changes here as when the Chargers are running smoothly, it’s Austin Ekeler, Allen, and Williams at the top of the target tree and guys like Joshua Palmer (5-49, five targets, 67% routes) and Gerald Everett (4-42, six targets, 62% routes) on a rung below them in the hierarchy


Week 15 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

Keep Them Rostered: Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Los Angeles Rams

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Tyler HigbeeTE542711011.1%55.6%88.9%25.0%33.3%1.802.00.4532.700
Tutu AtwellWR411003943.3%88.9%84.4%20.0%16.7%0.429.80.6030.256
Cam AkersRB33350-4-4.4%59.3%75.6%15.0%18.8%2.19-1.30.194-8.750
Ben SkowronekWR31302426.7%55.6%66.7%15.0%20.0%
Van JeffersonWR223203235.6%96.3%97.8%10.0%7.7%1.2316.00.3991.000
Brandon PowellWR2140-9-10.0%11.1%17.8%10.0%66.7%1.33-4.50.080-0.444
Malcolm BrownRB1000-2-2.2%22.2%15.6%5.0%16.7%0.00-2.00.0590.000
Austin TrammellWR000000.0%33.3%31.1%0.0%0.0%
Brycen HopkinsTE000000.0%18.5%11.1%0.0%0.0%
Kyren WilliamsRB000000.0%7.4%8.9%0.0%0.0%
Lance McCutcheonWR000000.0%3.7%2.2%0.0%0.0%


We’re not targeting anybody in this offense, even if Tyler Higbee (4-27-1, five targets, 56% routes on 89% snaps) scored a touchdown.

The Rams ran a Week 15-low 45 total snaps and 90 air yards as a team. This is not a serious NFL team, it’s a team that is looking to kneel out the remainder of the season to head into 2023.


Week 15 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: No.

Keep Them Rostered: Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee if you must, but it’s gross.

Dump ‘Em: The rest.


Miami Dolphins

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Tyreek HillWR1396918233.1%87.9%83.1%43.3%44.8%2.386.30.8810.841
Jaylen WaddleWR73114111446.0%69.7%69.5%23.3%30.4%4.9616.30.6721.000
Cedrick WilsonWR212103012.1%24.2%22.0%6.7%25.0%2.6315.00.1850.700
Raheem MostertRB21200-3-1.2%69.7%76.3%6.7%8.7%0.87-1.50.092-6.667
Alec IngoldFB2170-7-2.8%36.4%54.2%6.7%16.7%0.58-3.50.080-1.000
Mike GesickiTE116031.2%33.3%20.3%3.3%9.1%0.553.00.0582.000
Trent SherfieldWR100031.2%60.6%54.2%3.3%5.0%
Braylon SandersWR10002811.3%27.3%22.0%3.3%11.1%0.0028.00.1290.000
Durham SmytheTE11-20-2-0.8%27.3%64.4%3.3%11.1%-0.22-2.00.0441.000
Salvon AhmedRB000000.0%9.1%23.7%0.0%0.0%
Hunter LongTE000000.0%0.0%10.2%0.0%0.0%

Miami has been predictably condensed with their target hierarchy and Week 15 was no exception with Tyreek Hill (9-69-1, 13 targets) and Jaylen Waddle (3-114-1, seven targets) accounting for 67% of the team’s targets, 79% of air yards, and both touchdown grabs from Tua Tagovailoa.

Besides Raheem Mostert’s electric day on the ground (137 rushing yards) and Salvon Ahmed vulturing a rushing touchdown, it was pretty status quo for the Dolphins as no other Dolphin had more than two targets, one reception, or 21 receiving yards.


Week 15 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa

Keep Them Rostered: Raheem MostertJeff Wilson

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Minnesota Vikings

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
K.J. OsbornWR1610157112328.3%85.7%81.1%29.6%29.6%2.917.70.6431.276
Justin JeffersonWR161212319922.8%92.1%92.2%29.6%27.6%
T.J. HockensonTE9333011025.3%84.1%94.4%16.7%17.0%0.6212.20.4270.300
Dalvin CookRB44951-3-0.7%74.6%85.6%7.4%8.5%2.02-0.80.106-31.667
Adam ThielenWR434115011.5%92.1%90.0%7.4%6.9%0.7112.50.1920.820
Jalen ReagorWR20004410.1%7.9%7.8%3.7%40.0%0.0022.00.1270.000
Johnny MundtTE117000.0%6.3%17.8%1.9%25.0%1.750.00.0280.000
C.J. HamFB114030.7%4.8%15.6%1.9%33.3%1.333.00.0331.333
Jalen NailorWR100081.8%3.2%1.1%1.9%50.0%
Alexander MattisonRB000000.0%14.3%14.4%0.0%0.0%

In the greatest comeback in NFL history (not hyperbole), the Vikings got 16 targets EACH from Justin Jefferson (12-123) and K.J. Osborn (10-167-1). Utter madness. Both Jefferson and Osborn comprised almost 60% of the total targets.

Outside of T.J. Hockenson’s relative dud (3-33, nine targets), if you started a Viking in fantasy, you were rewarded. That also goes for Adam Thielen (3-41-1) and Dalvin Cook (4-95-1) who earned just four targets each, but Cook sprang loose for a 64-yard touchdown late to help tie the game after a two-point conversion.

It was actually one of the most perfect scenarios for an offense that is so condensed to the star players and why people make the case for a quarterback like Kirk Cousins that you can get late in drafts. At least in this specific case, Cousins getting 460 passing years to a condensed target group catapults the few options to amazing performances as we saw here. This is just one of the benefits of a narrow target tree where games with a few passing attempts funnel to the known commodities, whereas here, the options are raised significantly. It’s a win-win.


Week 15 Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Justin JeffersonDalvin Cook

Keep Them Rostered: T.J. Hockenson, Adam ThielenAlexander Mattison, Kirk Cousins

Dump ‘Em: N/A


New England Patriots

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jakobi MeyersWR6247010937.7%69.7%61.5%20.0%26.1%2.0418.20.5640.431
Nelson AgholorWR61309633.2%81.8%83.1%20.0%22.2%0.1116.00.5330.031
Tyquan ThorntonWR412106622.8%97.0%92.3%13.3%12.5%0.6616.50.3600.318
Hunter HenryTE429031.0%78.8%80.0%13.3%15.4%0.350.80.2073.000
Jonnu SmithTE32240196.6%39.4%58.5%10.0%23.1%1.856.30.1961.263
Pierre StrongRB3312000.0%30.3%26.2%10.0%30.0%
Rhamondre StevensonRB32-40-8-2.8%51.5%66.2%10.0%17.6%-0.24-2.70.1310.500
Kendrick BourneWR100041.4%21.2%16.9%3.3%14.3%
Kevin HarrisRB000000.0%6.1%10.8%0.0%0.0%
Marcus JonesCB000000.0%3.0%3.1%0.0%0.0%

The play of Sunday that anybody wants to talk about is the Jakobi Meyers play and that’s been covered ad nauseum.

How about those pass-catchers? Well, Mac Jones only threw for 112 yards against one of the most porous pass defenses in the league, so that doesn’t seem all that good. Meyers (2-47, six targets) led the way in pretty much every receiving category for the Patriots. That should tell you everything you need to know about this team in Week 15.

Meyers is the only player you could even dream of putting in a serious fantasy lineup and even then, he’s a dicey proposition as anything more than a low-end flex option.


Week 15 New England Patriots Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Rhamondre Stevenson

Keep Them Rostered: Jakobi MeyersHunter Henry (deeper 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


New Orleans Saints

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Juwan JohnsonTE646727034.7%61.9%50.9%31.6%46.2%5.1511.70.7160.957
Rashid ShaheedWR439516029.7%95.2%70.9%21.1%20.0%4.7515.00.5241.583
Chris OlaveWR435305627.7%85.7%49.1%21.1%22.2%2.9414.00.5100.946
Alvin KamaraRB2213073.5%42.9%61.8%10.5%22.2%1.443.50.1821.857
Adam PrenticeFB1130-7-3.5%4.8%9.1%5.3%100.0%3.00-7.00.055-0.429
Jarvis LandryWR100084.0%66.7%34.5%5.3%7.1%
Adam TrautmanTE100084.0%28.6%65.5%5.3%16.7%
Taysom HillTE000000.0%42.9%43.6%0.0%0.0%
David JohnsonRB000000.0%47.6%32.7%0.0%0.0%
Tre'Quan SmithWR000000.0%0.0%32.7%0.0%0.0%
Marquez CallawayWR000000.0%0.0%16.4%0.0%0.0%

This just seems WRONG. Unfortunately, it is factually correct. Despite an at least “solid” day out of Alvin Kamara (2-13, two targets, 21 carries, 91 yards), David Johnson (no targets) did run 48% of routes to Kamara’s 43%. Please send offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael a lump of coal, Santa.

The Saints only had 19 pass attempts, but Andy Dalton was moderately efficient, throwing two touchdowns while Taysom Hill threw the other touchdown to Rashid Shaheed (3-95-1, four targets, team-high 95% routes) on a 68-yard deep ball. Juwan Johnson (4-67-2, six targets, 62% routes) caught the other two touchdowns, and Chris Olave (3-53, four targets, 86% routes) had an uninteresting day where routes were at least less capped from the previous few weeks as Olave had been stifled to a degree with 79%, 83%, and 63% in the previous three weeks.

I think Shaheed is a sneaky start in some 12-team formats as his routes got up into the 95% range this week and he’s clearly a deep threat in this offense alongside Olave. While that archetype of a receiver is generally boom-or-bust in nature and the quarterback throwing the ball hasn’t been too trustworthy, I’m still happy to take a shot on a guy who has given his offense a shot in the arm and where he’s clearly gained trust as well.


Week 15 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara

Keep Them Rostered: Rashid ShaheedJuwan Johnson (deep 12 and 14 team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: Jarvis Landry. He’s dust.


New York Giants

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Saquon BarkleyRB85330-1-0.9%64.7%85.7%26.7%36.4%1.50-0.10.394-33.000
Darius SlaytonWR752303127.9%100.0%93.7%23.3%20.6%0.684.40.5450.742
Richie JamesWR544202926.1%85.3%79.4%16.7%17.2%1.455.80.4331.448
Isaiah HodginsWR443703027.0%94.1%88.9%13.3%12.5%
Daniel BellingerTE41401917.1%97.1%98.4%13.3%12.1%
Nick VannettTE1115021.8%2.9%15.9%3.3%100.0%
Matt BreidaRB116010.9%11.8%17.5%3.3%25.0%1.501.00.0566.000
Chris MyarickTE000000.0%0.0%9.5%0.0%0.0%
Marcus JohnsonWR000000.0%2.9%3.2%0.0%0.0%
Kenny GolladayWR000000.0%2.9%1.6%0.0%0.0%
Lawrence CagerTE000000.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%

No Giant had over 42 receiving yards. While Saquon Barkley (5-33, eight targets, 65% routes) and Darius Slayton (5-23, seven targets, 100% route participation) saw a combined 57% of targets, the results were pretty middling. This isn’t a passing game to target outside of rostering Slayton as a deep threat, but even he hasn’t fulfilled that promise over the last few weeks.

It’s best to just stay away from the litany of mediocre options here.


Week 15 New York Giants Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Saquon Barkley

Keep Them Rostered: Darius Slayton, Daniel JonesDaniel Bellinger (deeper 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


New York Jets

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Garrett WilsonWR9498016633.7%100.0%98.4%26.5%22.5%2.4518.40.6330.590
Elijah MooreWR745107014.2%87.5%74.6%20.6%20.0%1.4610.00.4080.729
Braxton BerriosWR6114010120.5%45.0%42.9%17.6%33.3%0.7816.80.4080.139
Jeff SmithWR547708417.0%47.5%46.0%14.7%26.3%4.0516.80.3400.917
C.J. UzomahTE22412316.3%25.0%50.8%5.9%20.0%4.1015.50.1321.323
Denzel MimsWR21130163.2%7.5%9.5%5.9%66.7%4.338.00.1110.813
Tyler ConklinTE2170122.4%50.0%74.6%5.9%10.0%0.356.00.1050.583
Michael CarterRB11160132.6%57.5%52.4%2.9%4.3%0.7013.00.0631.231
Zonovan KnightRB000000.0%17.5%47.6%0.0%0.0%

I’d be feeling much, much better about the Jets going forward if their quarterback was anybody else but Zach Wilson. He’s proven that he’s overmatched in the NFL and missing easy throws consistently. Yet, Garrett Wilson (4-98, nine targets) still produces despite an inefficient day thanks to Wilson. 

As for the rest of Wilson’s passing-game cohorts, Elijah Moore (4-51, seven targets) stayed in the 88% routes range this week but as the trend goes, continues to be held back by the quarterback. 

The key in the short term for head coach Robert Saleh is knowing when to fold your hand instead of putting chips into a dead hand. The sooner, the better for the Jets.


Week 15 New York Jets Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Garrett Wilson

Keep Them Rostered: Zonovan Knight, Elijah Moore

Dump ‘Em: Probably as good of a time as ever to cut some dead weight on your roster, like Corey Davis.


Philadelphia Eagles

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
A.J. BrownWR169181025254.1%97.7%89.0%43.2%38.1%4.3115.81.0270.718
DeVonta SmithWR85126013428.8%100.0%95.9%21.6%18.6%2.9316.80.5260.940
Quez WatkinsWR64604710.1%65.1%65.8%16.2%21.4%
Kenneth GainwellRB229010.2%41.9%39.7%5.4%11.1%0.500.50.0839.000
Grant CalcaterraTE2000245.2%44.2%39.7%5.4%10.5%0.0012.00.1170.000
Jack StollTE116051.1%67.4%79.5%2.7%3.4%
Zach PascalWR1000102.1%20.9%24.7%2.7%11.1%0.0010.00.0560.000
Miles SandersRB11-130-7-1.5%41.9%54.8%2.7%5.6%-0.72-7.00.0301.857
Boston ScottRB000000.0%9.3%5.5%0.0%0.0%
Tyree JacksonTE000000.0%2.3%4.1%0.0%0.0%

The story of fantasy football this week is that a sprained shoulder is likely to keep Jalen Hurts from playing in Philadelphia's Week 16 matchup with the Cowboys. He gutted out the rest of the game with three rushing touchdowns and 315 passing yards. Gardner Minshew probably downgrades the offense a tick, but we’ve seen small samples of Minshew being awesome with the Jaguars, and we know he’s never had A.J. BrownDeVonta Smith, and a returning Dallas Goedert at his disposal.

Hilariously, both Brown (9-181, 16 targets) and Smith (5-126, eight targets) combined for 307 of the 315 passing yards as well as 65% of targets and 83% of air yards. Goedert should spread out some of the target consolidation, but this offense rolls through those three targets no matter who is at quarterback for the Eagles. 


Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert

Keep Them Rostered: Miles SandersGardner Minshew (if Hurts is out)

Dump ‘Em: With Dallas Goedert returning, you can go ahead and drop Quez Watkins. Watkins will be nothing more than an extremely boom-or-bust option without the increased target volume when Goedert was on IR. 


Pittsburgh Steelers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Diontae JohnsonWR10109806541.4%95.7%73.5%47.6%45.5%4.456.51.0041.508
George PickensWR525307950.3%95.7%66.2%23.8%22.7%2.4115.80.7090.671
Steven SimsWR211001710.8%65.2%42.6%9.5%13.3%0.678.50.2190.588
Jaylen WarrenRB11110-5-3.2%26.1%33.8%4.8%16.7%1.83-5.00.049-2.200
Zach GentryTE1140-2-1.3%26.1%61.8%4.8%16.7%0.67-2.00.063-2.000
Gunner OlszewskiWR113031.9%21.7%27.9%4.8%20.0%0.603.00.0851.000
Miles BoykinWR110000.0%8.7%36.8%4.8%50.0%
Najee HarrisRB000000.0%39.1%66.2%0.0%0.0%
Pat FreiermuthTE000000.0%69.6%55.9%0.0%0.0%
Derek WattFB000000.0%0.0%13.2%0.0%0.0%
Connor HeywardTE000000.0%0.0%5.9%0.0%0.0%

The Steelers decided to hide Mitchell Trubisky (a #good decision) with the second-lowest PROE (-14.5%) of Week 15, but we did see Trubisky hyper-target Diontae Johnson (10-98, 10 targets, 96% routes) to his best game of the season, catching all 10 of his targets. We know what Johnson can do when he’s on the field, but he hasn’t been trustworthy all season.

We’re really hoping for huge strides out of Kenny Pickett to prop up guys like Johnson, George Pickens (2-53, five targets), and Pat Freiermuth (no targets).

No other Steelers besides Johnson and Pickens had more than two targets or more than 11 receiving yards. So, yikes.


Week 15 Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: I can’t do it anymore with the Steelers.

Keep Them Rostered: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George PickensJaylen Warren (contingent play for Harris), Pat Freiermuth (unstartable as he’s playing hurt.)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


San Francisco 49ers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Christian McCaffreyRB8630063.9%113.0%89.1%30.8%30.8%
George KittleTE549325133.6%108.7%84.4%19.2%20.0%3.7210.20.5231.824
Jauan JenningsWR533103523.0%104.3%84.4%19.2%20.8%
Brandon AiyukWR421903925.7%121.7%96.9%15.4%14.3%0.689.80.4100.487
Ray-Ray McCloudWR3116042.6%73.9%42.2%11.5%17.6%0.941.30.1914.000
Tyler KroftTE112801711.2%8.7%21.9%3.8%50.0%14.0017.00.1361.647
Kyle JuszczykFB000000.0%47.8%51.6%0.0%0.0%
Jordan MasonRB000000.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%0.0%
Charlie WoernerTE000000.0%0.0%9.4%0.0%0.0%
Willie SneadWR000000.0%4.3%4.7%0.0%0.0%
Danny GrayWR000000.0%8.7%3.1%0.0%0.0%
Ross DwelleyTE000000.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%

Noted game-manager Brock Purdy game-managed his way to another 49er win as only a game-manager can. Under Purdy, you might as well call them the “4.9ers”, as that’s about what his aDOT has been through three starts —  5.8 yards. The downfield aspect of this offense just hasn’t been there, and that’s crippled the fantasy value of Brandon Aiyuk (2-19, four targets), who thrived in that role with more capable quarterbacking.

The offense is obviously run-oriented, but without Deebo Samuel, it seems like some of those targets would shift over. That hasn’t happened. George Kittle (4-93-2, five targets) was at least a Week 15 beneficiary.

Right now, this offense flows completely through Christian McCaffrey (6-30, team-leading eight targets, 108 rushing yards, one touchdown) and hey, that’s not a bad thing whatsoever.


Week 15 San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel (when healthy), George Kittle

Keep Them Rostered: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason (purely a handcuff/contingent play), Brock Purdy (deep 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Seattle Seahawks

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Tyler LockettWR976806734.2%93.8%89.1%22.0%20.0%1.517.40.5691.015
DK MetcalfWR975505126.0%97.9%95.3%22.0%19.1%
Noah FantTE653212412.2%45.8%51.6%14.6%27.3%1.454.00.3051.333
Kenneth WalkerRB54320-6-3.1%64.6%75.0%12.2%16.1%1.03-1.20.161-5.333
Marquise GoodwinWR52100199.7%64.6%59.4%12.2%16.1%0.323.80.2510.526
Travis HomerRB44250126.1%25.0%25.0%9.8%33.3%
Will DisslyTE1113073.6%45.8%57.8%2.4%4.5%0.597.00.0621.857
Penny HartWR113031.5%4.2%3.1%2.4%50.0%1.503.00.0471.000
Colby ParkinsonTE1000199.7%33.3%39.1%2.4%6.3%0.0019.00.1040.000
Dareke YoungWR000000.0%0.0%4.7%0.0%0.0%

The condensed target tree for Seattle stayed that way in Week 15 despite a broken hand by Tyler Lockett (7-68, nine targets, 94% routes) that knocks him out of Week 16 but somehow, could have him back by Week 17’s fantasy championships after what head coach Pete Carroll called “perfect” hand surgery.

DK Metcalf (7-55, nine targets) is obviously a lock for targets in this offense and should benefit greatly as the top target for Geno Smith, but in a potential one-game absence, targets could open up a little bit for somebody like Marquise Goodwin (2-10, five targets, 65% routes) or potentially Noah Fant (5-32-1, 46% routes). Fant’s issue is his own tight end room, which splits the work pretty evenly with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. There’s also a chance that “nobody” could be the right answer in terms of who steps up with Lockett out.


Week 15 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: DK Metcalf, Tyler LockettGeno SmithKenneth Walker

Keep Them Rostered: Noah Fant (deep 12 and 14 team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: N/A


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Russell GageWR1285927022.6%67.4%62.2%28.6%38.7%1.905.80.5870.843
Mike EvansWR10583013142.3%91.3%81.1%23.8%23.8%1.9813.10.6530.634
Chris GodwinWR888315517.7%89.1%89.2%19.0%19.5%
Leonard FournetteWR4430072.3%54.3%58.1%9.5%16.0%
Cameron BrateTE422504113.2%47.8%39.2%9.5%18.2%1.1410.30.2350.610
Rachaad WhiteRB2150-1-0.3%30.4%39.2%4.8%14.3%0.36-0.50.069-5.000
Cade OttonTE1120031.0%45.7%64.9%2.4%4.8%0.953.00.0426.667
Deven ThompkinsWR117041.3%8.7%17.6%2.4%25.0%1.754.00.0451.750
Ko KieftTE000000.0%15.2%27.0%0.0%0.0%
Scotty MillerWR000000.0%10.9%10.8%0.0%0.0%
Breshad PerrimanWR000000.0%13.0%9.5%0.0%0.0%

The leader in the clubhouse this week was, of course, Russell Gage (8-59-2, 12 targets, 67% routes), who I’m sure everybody had on their bingo card for Week 15. Gage was the beneficiary of the team not having Julio Jones healthy in this game, but you really shouldn’t be going out to get Gage at this juncture. The floor is too low here to even consider taking up a roster spot in the fantasy playoffs outside super-deep leagues as Gage could just as well disappear in the next week or two.

Mike Evans (5-83, 10 targets) earned double-digit targets, and Chris Godwin (8-83-1, eight targets) was pretty damn efficient with his targets. Not much new here.

Leonard Fournette (4-30, four targets, 54% routes, 58% snaps) retook the backfield a bit here as Rachaad White (1-5, two targets, 30% routes, 39% snaps) has been fine but nothing requiring an immediate spike in playing time like Tony Pollard did in Dallas. Still, White should be started as Tampa Bay is one of the hotbeds for high-value touches (HVT) in the NFL. 


Week 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans

Keep Them Rostered: Leonard Fournette, Rachaad WhiteTom Brady, Julio Jones (deep 12 and 14 team leagues), Russell Gage (deep 12 and 14 team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: I’m over the headache of rostering a Buccaneers’ tight end and Cameron Brate and Cade Otton are both sharing one role and running routes on less than 50% of dropbacks. Drop both and pick up the other if one gets hurt.


Tennessee Titans

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Chigoziem OkonkwoTE545403220.6%56.3%59.7%19.2%27.8%
Derrick HenryRB4459063.9%40.6%71.0%15.4%30.8%4.541.50.2589.833
Austin HooperTE423303421.9%53.1%48.4%15.4%23.5%1.948.50.3840.971
Robert WoodsWR421201912.3%93.8%80.6%15.4%13.3%0.404.80.3170.632
Chris ConleyWR331901610.3%59.4%50.0%11.5%15.8%
Hassan HaskinsRB2270-6-3.9%25.0%19.4%7.7%25.0%0.88-3.00.088-1.167
Racey McMathWR21103321.3%31.3%22.6%7.7%20.0%0.1016.50.2640.030
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR20002113.5%87.5%82.3%7.7%7.1%0.0010.50.2100.000
Geoff SwaimTE000000.0%15.6%51.6%0.0%0.0%
Kevin RaderTE000000.0%0.0%12.9%0.0%0.0%
Julius ChestnutRB000000.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%

The ankle injury to Ryan Tannehill when it comes to either starting or rostering Titans’ pass-catchers should put the final nail in the coffin for us gluttons for punishment. You’re already starting Derrick Henry (4-59, four targets, 41% of routes) no matter what; that should be more than enough. He’s their entire offense and was in Week 15 as he led not only the expected rushing workload but led the Titans with 163 total yards and leading in all receiving categories too besides targets. 

Chigoziem Okonkwo (4-54, five targets) would be the only other fantasy asset you’re realistically considering in a fantasy playoff lineup, and that’s only because tight end is just so gross. The rub on Okonkwo is that even if he’s producing to a degree, he’s not getting a bump in routes (57% in Week 13, 52% in Week 14, 56% in Week 15) for any kind of volume spike that we want, so that keeps him in the streaming categories as long as the Titans still mix in dusty options like Austin Hooper (2-33, four targets, 53% routes) and noted blocking sled Geoff Swaim (52% snaps, no targets).

The other side of that coin is the fact that with Tannehill “very likely” to be out for the season, Malik Willis is the starting quarterback for the rest of 2022, so he downgrades the already downgraded options there.


Week 15 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Derrick Henry

Keep Them Rostered: Treylon Burks (when healthy), Robert Woods (deep 12 and 14 team leagues), Chigoziem Okonkowo (deep 12 and 14 team leagues)

Dump ‘Em: Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury is likely keeping him out for the rest of 2022, so if you’re rostering him, he’s a safe drop.


Washington Commanders

NamePos.TargetsRec.Rec. YardsTDAir YardsAir Yards %Route %Snap %Target Share %TPRRYPRRaDOTWOPRRACR
Jahan DotsonWR6410519629.0%88.2%79.4%22.2%20.0%3.5016.00.5361.094
Terry McLaurinWR667003811.5%91.2%92.1%22.2%19.4%
Curtis SamuelWR534406619.9%64.7%58.7%18.5%22.7%2.0013.20.4170.667
Antonio GibsonRB426030.9%67.6%60.3%14.8%17.4%
Logan ThomasTE3160329.7%76.5%63.5%11.1%11.5%0.2310.70.2340.188
Dyami BrownWR20009428.4%5.9%15.9%7.4%100.0%0.0047.00.3100.000
Brian RobinsonRB1118020.6%14.7%38.1%3.7%20.0%3.602.00.0609.000
John BatesTE000000.0%23.5%57.1%0.0%0.0%
Cole TurnerTE000000.0%5.9%27.0%0.0%0.0%
Cam SimsWR000000.0%8.8%7.9%0.0%0.0%

A completely bizarre penalty took points off the board for the Commanders, and it’s interesting to see the general conversation about what typically happens on plays and what kind of leeway referees give to receivers pre-play:

On the field, Jahan Dotson (4-105-1, six targets) and Terry McLaurin (6-70, six targets) both ran routes on 88% or more of dropbacks and were by far the most productive Commanders pass-catchers in Week 15. Considering the rest of them combined for seven receptions and 74 receiving yards, it’s best to ignore the secondary guys here, including Curtis Samuel, who has trailed off considerably after a hot start to 2022.


Week 15 Washington Commanders Fantasy Takeaways:

Start Your Studs: Terry McLaurin

Keep Them Rostered: Brian RobinsonAntonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel (deep 12 and 14 team)

Dump ‘Em: N/A

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