It was a rough outing yesterday, as Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets was so close, yet so far. Pascal Siakam had five rebounds with time remaining in the first half, but he could only secure one second half rebound, falling short of the teased player prop. The Knicks won but Denver was demolished, and Nikola Jokic did not score thirty points, not even close. In fact, that was the worst Denver Nuggets game I have personally watched in four years. It was also the largest halftime deficit in Nuggets playoff history.

 

Today is a new day and two new series are underway. The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden in the first game. The second game is a close geographic battle between neighboring states. A new Red River Rivalry takes place as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks at the Paycom Center.

There are three bets today, we look at a total bet in the later game, and two player props. The player props are on the respective captains of their teams, Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

NBA Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, May 7

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT BOSTON CELTICS

  • JAYSON TATUM UNDER 27.5 POINTS (-120 ON BET 365)

Jayson Tatum has been a profitable playoff wager for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, and hopefully that continues into round two. Fantasy Alarm has been successful betting on both his over and under point total, but twice as much has been won with the under. 

He is a popular name and the face of the franchise, and rightfully so. Despite recently turning twenty-six he is playing in his 100th playoff basketball game. It is not being spoken of enough in the sports media. That is an impressive statistic, but Tatum is not chasing any statistics… he’s chasing a championship. 

He has only one thing on his mind, and it’s winning what has avoided him. Although he can score at will, he has the best scoring teammates of his career. His assists and rebounding average are both up from the regular season as he does the less glorifying work to help his team. Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and even Sam Hauser have been providing excellent points.

With Kristaps Porzingis injured and not playing, some may believe that Tatum will score more. While that is a possibility, it’s far from certain. Tatum has been playing minutes with the second unit, particularly late in close out games. Also, in what was essentially two games without Porzingis, Tatum scored a combined thirty-six points.

In addition to that Tatum has scored twenty-eight points or more in just one of the last Celtics ten games. That is just one game over the last month. Granted some were blowouts and some he rested, but scoring is not something most people just turn on and off like a light switch. It takes rhythm, finding your spots, and hoping the defender is not giving too much for the player to handle.

Although Cleveland is not a great defensive team, they do have two big men to protect the paint (If Allen is healthy enough to play). Tatum is 6’ 8”, far from small, but Mobley has been playing great defense, and there is not an easy way to get around Jarrett Allen. Tatum will have to have an excellent mid-range game tonight to score twenty-eight or more points. 

The spread is currently twelve points in favor of the Celtics, which seems a bit high. However this game could be a complete blowout and Tatum could play closer to thirty minutes instead of forty. If that should happen it would help this bet, but ultimately Tatum is not playing with a score first mentality. Asking him to score twenty-five percent of the team’s projected total seems like a reach. Place a unit for Tatum to score under twenty-eight points tonight.

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

  • SHAI GILGEOUS ALEXANDER UNDER 28.5 POINTS (-102 ON DRAFTKINGS)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not played since April 29th, that is over a week. Maybe the rest does them good, or maybe they are rusty to begin the game. Odds are they will come out with adrenaline in front of the loud crowd at the Paycom Center, but will it sustain?

The Dallas Mavericks have a much improved defense as well. The Mavericks held the Los Angeles Clippers to ninety-three points or less in three of the six games played. There is a projected total of 218 points in this game, but that would not correlate with what has been taking place in the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs. 

Totals are down over ten points from the regular season compared to the playoffs. There is usually a drop in point production, however it usually is not this severe. The physicality of both games yesterday are a full display of why point totals are down. Due to that many fans and analysts feel as though the foul on Myles Turner last night was a bad (soft) call in the Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks game. It is also what caused the Denver Nuggets to blow a gasket in game two, and kept the Nuggets point total to a playoff low. The Mavericks at Thunder game will likely be more of the same.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored twenty-nine points or more just twice in over a month… go ahead and read that again. The narrative being pushed is/was that he’s a thirty-five point scorer every game, and that is simply not true. Before the rise of Anthony Edwards in these playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander was being touted as the best guard in the NBA…compared to Michael Jordan even. That is the NBA media’s job though, amplify anything better than average and make storylines out of each team’s best player. As bettors, it’s wise to stay away from narrative and look at the stats. 

He has been injured, and the Thunder have several players that can score, most notably Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Dallas will look to stop Gilgeous-Alexander first though. Another issue is Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington’s excellent defensive play. Gilgeous-Alexander is an excellent spot up shooter, but he prefers to drive to the lane. He made just ninety-seven threes this season and although he will attempt threes, 35.3% is not exactly confidence boosting.

Twenty-nine points are difficult to come by, especially in the playoffs… just ask Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Taum. Place the bet on his under tonight.

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

  • UNDER 218.5 POINTS (-103 ON BETTOR EDGE)

Another under to round out the day, this time on the entire game. The unders have been profitable bets this playoffs, and Fantasy Alarm will utilize the data and bet on several unders until the sportsbooks adjust. A game one of any series is always a mystery, but the odds are on this wager’s side.

In the first series the Dallas Mavericks had one game with the Los Angeles Clippers go over 218.5 points. The Oklahoma City Thunder did not have a single game over 216 points in their first series, yet due to the prolific regular season scoring (and possible bait by the sportsbooks) the total has been increased. 

As mentioned with the Shai Gilgeious-Alexander prop, the NBA is allowing much more physical play in the playoffs. This has caused for the dip of over ten points compared to the regular season. Both teams have had time to prepare for each other and will look to implement defensive strategies throughout the game. 

Without question Luka Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander are the primary focus for each team, but Kyrie Irving and Jalen Williams must be accounted for too. Both teams have big and tall rosters, as does most of the NBA, this too is making it difficult to get lay-ups and dunks. Unless one of these teams has an incredible night from behind the arc, this should be an easy cover. 

Place a unit on the point total of this game to be under 219 points. This bet coincides with the game plan of Gilgeous-Alexander having a lower scoring game as well. 

Thanks for reading my top NBA predictions for today! Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting needs.

 


Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise