Losing a bet on a last second, behind half court, buzzer-beater is similar to feeling scammed. The math was correct, the thought process was correct, the +150 ticket was about to cash, then Max Strus threw up a prayer of a shot and it went through. Brutal, absolutely brutal. 

That successful three-point attempt was the difference in +1.24 units to -1.26 units, a 2.50-unit swing. A last second, two percent success rate field goal attempt ruined our Meat Loaf. Such is the amazing spectacle of sports, and a large reason we are so passionate about it is the thrill of the unknown.

 

That was yesterday. Today, Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets searches every prop and straight bet to bring the best angles. There are six games today and we are going to bring WINNERS! One of three doesn’t cut it. I would have been more than happy with Meat Loaf, and we are at least serving that up if not a sweep. 

The Sacramento Kings travel to Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets. The Kings have owned the Denver Nuggets this season, and there are several tempting proposition bets on two teams with premiere centers. It is not the centers we bet on tonight, but the Nuggets small forward Michael Porter Jr. 

There is a double-down on a player that was once as automatic as slobber on a Saint Bernard. Scottie Barnes is back, and he is featured in the Bet of the Day. Check out my full analysis regarding these NBA best bets today below.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/28

Scottie Barnes Player Props: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-145 at DraftKings) *2 UNITS

Welcome back Mr. Barnes. Scottie Barnes has statistics across the board, and at one point was everything for his team. He then became a transition player, trying to figure out a fit during the Toronto Raptors massive trade extravaganza. Now with injuries plaguing the Raptors, he is back to playing with the ball in his hands more. 

He earned a triple double in his last game which was his second this month. At one point we won eight bets in a row on Scottie Barnes under 8.5 rebounds; he is now back to a rebounding machine. His rebounding statistics in his last seven games are: 12, 5, 12, 12, 9, 10, 10. The 2024 All-Star is back to all-star form, and the Raptors are hosting the second worst rebounding team in the Association, the Dallas Mavericks. 

The Mavericks allow the second most rebounds in the league with 54.5 per game, allow 55.0 on the road, and the most rebounds to opposing guards. The data indicates a massive night for Barnes. The Mavericks are coming off the heartbreaking loss at Cleveland last night and will be tired – some players may not play. 

Barnes has come full circle, and we are back to betting his over on the rebounds. The sportsbooks are simply accounting for his year average, and not recent play. Put two units on one of Fantasy Alarm’s favorites. 

 

NBA Player Props for Today, 2/28

Scottie Barnes Player Props: To Record a Double-Double (+105 at BetMGM)

Barnes could be a potential second team All-NBA player which is required for maximum contracts. It appears the Toronto Raptors want to build around Barnes, and if he is selected to the All-NBA team, he would have a significant change in his pay as well. He is playing with maximum effort and the Raptors are only four games out of the play-in. 

Barnes has been lights out since controlling the ball more. He has a double-double in his last four games played (every game since the All-Star break), and six of his last seven. Jakob Poeltl, Toronto’s starting center, is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain. If Poeltl does not play tonight the two bets on Barnes would have a higher percentage to be successful. 

Barnes can also achieve this with assists as he has three games this month with ten or more. Dallas allows the sixth most assists to opposing guards as the Mavericks are not a good defensive team. Barnes is a true guard/forward but with the ball in his hands he excels in the big three categories: points, rebounds, and assists. 

If you are feeling bold a 0.5 unit bet on his triple-double at +850, it's worth a wager, but for the purpose of this column will not be registered in the tally. His double-double at positive odds is more than enough for a smart bettor.

 

Michael Porter Jr. Player Props: Over 2.5 Threes Made (-110 at BetMGM)

Michael Porter Jr. was in this column three days ago, and he cashed on his over 6.5 rebounds. He is back after three days' rest, and we are trusting him from behind the arc. The Denver Nuggets host the Sacramento Kings tonight, and the Kings have dominated the Nuggets this season winning all three of the previous games. 

The Nuggets just swept the Golden State Warriors three days ago and could be swept themselves by the Kings tonight. The spread is 8.5 points in favor of the Nuggets, and if they are going to cover that high of a spread, Porter Jr. will have to score points. He covered his rebounding line against the Warriors but had his lowest point total in over a month with nine. 

Championship players bounce back from bad scoring performances, and Porter Jr. is a champion AND great scorer. He made three threes against the Kings on the fourteenth of this month and sat out for one of just his three missed games this season on their match February ninth. He has sixty-one attempts in nine games this month or an average of 6.78 per game. 

He has had three full days of rest, playing back on his home court, and should have several open attempts as the Kings will focus on stopping Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. A near even odds prop at his average (2.6) made per game is worth the unit.

 

Thanks for reading. Besides my NBA best bets and player props today, remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise