Ohhhh, we were so close to reaching the goal yesterday, as Bam Adebayo left us on the hook. Domantas Sabonis was successful, by 0.5 rebounds and my words yesterday proved true – the prop lines are getting tight from the sportsbooks. 

Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets is still on pace to achieve the forty-unit goal, and even though our guy Simone Fontecchio didn’t reach his prop, nine out of ten is not bad for the role player. There are eleven games today, two of which are on TNT, but today’s NBA best bets focus on games away from the national spotlight.

 

There are two straight bets in today’s column, one is on the first listed tip-off of the day. The Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers begins with a 7:00 PM ET tip off, and the sportsbooks may have an off line. The Utah Jazz travel to Georgia to take on the Atlanta Hawks at the State Farm Arena in what should be a great game. There is a positive bet in that match as the Atlanta Hawks are without their leader, Trae Young. 

The Bet of the Night is on a player that was recently mentioned in this column. His bet was successful last time and should be successful tonight. So, let's jump right into my expert NBA best bets today.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/27

Damian Lillard Player Props: Over 6.5 Assists (-135 at BetMGM)

Damian Lillard is arguably the hottest player since the All-Star challenges. He won the three-point contest, was named the All-Star MVP, and won both of his games since the break including a double-double performance. The Milwaukee Bucks are hosting the Charlotte Hornets tonight with an 8:00 PM ET tip-off. 

The Hornets have the worst point differential in the Association with -10.0 and are playing with essentially only one player from the projected starting five before the season began. The Bucks are finally getting in a rhythm with mid-season appointed coach Doc Rivers. Lillard seems to be the beneficiary of Rivers becoming the new head coach, and his numbers are on the way up. 

Lillard has covered this line in three straight games, the Hornets give up the eleventh most assists to opposing point guards, and there is an average point differential of 13.5 between these two teams. In addition to that his assists per game average is 6.8. All data indicates this should be an easy cover for the All-Star MVP.

 

NBA Predictions for Today, 2/27

Jazz vs. Hawks Prediction: Utah Money Line (+105 at BetMGM)

The Utah Jazz are playing the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena tonight. Both teams have had a day’s rest, and the line is tight, only a 1.5 points spread in favor of the Hawks. Trae Young is out at least four weeks after surgery on his left hand, and some are of the belief that the Hawks are playing better without him.

That is foolish, for Trae Young was their only All-Star, and was the closer for this team. He had several assists, and the stat line could trick some, because come the last half of the fourth quarter it was almost always Trae Young. 

The Hawks are currently in the play-in with the tenth seed of the Eastern Conference, but the Jazz are on the outside looking in as the eleventh seed of the Western Conference. The Jazz are better at home than on the road, but the Hawks have a losing record on their home court, so it seems they are even or at least neither team has an advantage. 

The Jazz have better playmakers with Lauri Markkanen, Colin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson off the bench. The Utah Jazz have a completely healthy roster and are three games out of the play-in, with a chance to gain a game on the road. The Jazz have the better back court and Lauri Markkanen is the best player on the court, which tilts it towards an advantage for the Jazz.

 

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Prediction: Dallas Money Line (+150 at BetMGM)

The Dallas Mavericks are in Ohio to play the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Cavaliers are massive favorites in this game with the return of a healthy Donovan Mitchell. They are currently second in the Eastern Conference with a 37-19 record, meanwhile the Mavericks are in eighth place of the Western Conference with a 33-24 record. 

There is a peculiar fact about the Cavaliers though: eight of their last nine wins have come against teams currently not in the playoffs. They had a favorable January schedule including playing the Bucks in transition with their head coach. Simply put, the Cavs are not as good as their record indicates. 

Dallas does have a winning record on the road, 15-11, have a +1.2-point differential, and have a backcourt that when hot is the best in the league with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic is listed as probable but expected to play, and the addition of PJ Washington has given the Dallas Mavericks the tough presence that was absent in their front court. 

This seems like an inflated line and one Fantasy Alarm hopes to capitalize on with +150 odds across the four sportsbooks looked at for this column. Trust Doncic and Irving to outscore Mitchell and Max Strus, and for Dallas to deliver at great odds.

 

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise