The brooms were almost brought out, were it not for the sentimental 0.5 bet on the Kevin Durant versus LeBron James it would have been. All is well, as it was the fourth day in a row winning more bets than losing, and yesterday brought in a 1.73-unit gain. 

That moves the unit count to 36.40 through eighteen weeks of NBA action, an average of two units gained per week. That is what happened on February 25, 2024, but we are interested in what is going to happen on February 26, 2004.

 

There are four games in the Association tonight, two of which are nationally televised on NBATV. The lines are really tight today, but a few teams are playing in back-to-back games and Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets today look to take advantage of those angles. 

The Indiana Pacers host the Toronto Raptors after a high action game against the Dallas Mavericks last night. There is a Raptors player prop worth a wager in this game. Simone Fontecchio makes another appearance as he seeks another win for this column. 

The Bet of the Night is a same game parlay in the Miami Heat versus Sacramento Kings game, and it is on the big men.

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/26

Heat vs. Kings Same Game Parlay

Bam Adebayo Player Props: Over 10.5 Rebounds + Domantas Sabonis Player Props: Under 14.5 Rebounds (+238 SGP at FanDuel)

The Sacramento Kings were in a late-night match against the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday, which they won. The Miami Heat were resting in preparation for tonight, and they will be without at least four players. 

Bam Adebayo will be stepping it up and carrying a larger responsibility if the Heat are going to win. An interesting note in these two big men is Bam Adebayo made the All-Star game as a replacement averaging 20.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Pretty great statistics. 

Domantas Sabonis leads the league in rebounds (13.2 per game), has more triple-doubles than any player in the league with twenty, the Kings have a better record than the Miami Heat, and Sabonis did not play in the All-Star game. This should tell you all you need to know about the difference in competition in the Western and Eastern Conferences. 

Don’t get it twisted though: Adebayo is an elite center, and the best USA born center in the Association. His rebounding line is at +100 on FanDuel and -120 on other sportsbooks, and he has covered the line in three of his last four games. 

Sacramento allows the thirteenth most rebounds to opposing centers and allows an average of 50.7 rebounds per game. If you prefer you can bet Adebayo’s rebounding stand alone at even odds. He will have to be a force in the paint, and stop D. Sabonis from getting offensive boards.

Domantas Sabonis is one of the most dominant centers in the NBA, is on pace to be a back-to-back rebounding champion, and is the centerpiece of Sacramento’s game plan. He has had a triple-double in seven of his last nine games and the Kings have won three in a row. The Kings are 4-4 in back-to-back games this season, and the Heat are only one game from sixth place, and one game from being out of the play-in tournament. 

Sabonis might be the leading rebounder, but the sportsbooks have set his rebounding line extremely high. He has gone over 14.5 rebounds in just four of his ten games this month. He gives so much effort on the floor that it is almost unrealistic to expect him to cover this prop against a tough defensive team and three-time All-Star center. 

Adebayo to have eleven or more rebounds and Sabonis to have under fifteen rebounds is well within reach. It also has some of the best odds this column has seen. Put a unit on the big men for a big pay off. 

 

NBA Player Prop Bets for Today, 2/26

Jakob Poeltl Player Props: Over 8.5 Rebounds (-130 at FanDuel)

The Indiana Pacers were in an offensive battle against the Dallas Mavericks last night. They came out victorious, but their starters played several minutes. Tonight, they host the Toronto Raptors who may not be collectively as good as the Dallas Mavericks, but arguably have a better front court. 

The Raptors are finally getting in a rhythm after their trades, and also getting healthy. This has led to two wins in a row, and Jakob Poeltl has been a large reason for that success. His minutes are staying above twenty-five, he has gone over 8.5 rebounds in his last three games, and seven of ten games this month. Although the Pacers are tough against centers tonight could be a different story, at least for Poeltl’s rebounds. 

The Pacers play at a strenuous pace, and that is unlikely to change tonight. What will change is the team’s field goal percentage – it will go down with more missed attempts. This should allow more defensive rebounds for Poeltl tonight. He averages 8.6 rebounds per game and should exceed his average against a tired team tonight. 

Simone Fontecchio Player Props: Over 12.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)

‘The Well’ is back for more betting action. Going back to last month, this has potential to be a tenth successful bet on Simone Fontecchio for Fantasy Alarm. We were on his rebounds when he was with the Utah Jazz, and we are on his points now that he is playing with the Detroit Pistons. 

The Sportsbooks have FINALLY caught on to his new role with the Pistons and his point line has been moved up. Fontecchio is perfect in this column and with lines so tight today, the thought process is to trust ‘The Well’ in his new role despite the increase on his point line. 

Despite his line being moved to 12.5 points he has covered it in four of his five games with the Pistons. He has played over thirty-one minutes in three of those games, and he has sixty-five field goal attempts in his tenure with the Pistons, which is an average of thirteen attempts per game. The New York Knicks are a tough opponent but with Josh Hart expected to guard Cade Cunningham, it should free up high percentage opportunities for Fontecchio. 

The Knicks allow the fourteenth most points to opposing small forwards, they have a shallow bench, and Fontecchio is one of Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets ‘guys’. Put the unit on him and let’s hope he cashes for the tenth time!

 

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise