An atrocious day yesterday, no need to discuss it. We are now on to the games at hand. There are eight games today, two of which are on ESPN. The Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers is the first game, but Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets focuses on bets away from the first ESPN game. 


Tonight is an individual stack of points, rebounds, assists. D’Angelo Russell and the Los Angeles Lakers host Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings. Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors play Damian Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks which is the second match on ESPN. 

James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers take on Alperen Sengun and the Houston Rockets, and it happens to be that the Bet of the Night comes from that game too. Let's tap into my expert NBA best bets today, March 6!

Expert NBA Best Bet & Pick Today, 3/6

James Harden Player Props: Over 7.5 Assists (-160 on Fanatics Sportsbook)

James Harden's assists line has moved to 8.5 assists with positive odds on the over across most sportsbooks. This bet is found under the ‘ALT Player Props’ tab on Fanatics Sportsbook and near the bottom of the options provided. 

It seems the sportsbooks either had a shark make a move on the over 7.5, or they are trying to bait people into a plus odds over. James Harden has eight or more assists in six straight games, and all but one game since the All-Star break. However, he has exactly eight in four of those six games. 

The Houston Rockets are coming off an impressive win against the San Antonio Spurs, which featured a career night for Alperen Sengun. Houston is a great defensive team, allowing the fourth fewest assists per game, but they are playing on the second of back to back games, and the Los Angeles Clippers are well rested. 

James Harden is familiar with Houston and has stepped up with more minutes since teammate Russell Westbrook’s hand injury. Harden has played thirty-four or more minutes in five of his last six games, and he could see that many minutes again tonight. If he does, he should keep his pace of eight or more assists, as the Clippers try to catch first place in the Western Conference.


NBA Prop Bets for Today, 3/6

D'Angelo Russell Player Props: Over 17.5 Points (-140 on DraftKings)

D’Angelo Russell’s odds have moved since last night in favor of the over. The line is juiced from -120, and Russell has been playing much better basketball since the All-Star break. He has scored eighteen or more points in all but one game since the break. In the game he did not score eighteen, he scored seventeen and it was his lowest amount of minutes played since the break.

The Lakers host the Sacramento Kings who haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed lately. They are allowing the second most points to opposing guards and second most points to teams with 117.8 per game average. Both of these teams are currently in the play-in with Sacramento seventh and Los Angeles ninth. The Lakers are 1.5 games back from the Kings and only 0.5 games ahead of the Warriors.

The Kings at Lakers game has the highest total tonight by over ten points. Russell will have to score his average if not more in order for the total to be accurate. Put a unit on the Laker guard to cover his average against a bad defensive team.


Draymond Green Player Props: Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)

Draymond Green has been playing the center in games for the Golden State Warriors lately. In four of his last six games, he has more rebounds than points, as he focuses on being a paint presence for his team. Tonight, the Golden State Warriors host the Milwaukee Bucks who now have the longest winning streak in the Association with six in a row.

The Warriors are favorites tonight with a four-point advantage, which seems a bit odd. The Warriors are coming off of one of their worst defeats as a franchise, and they rested most of their starters for the second half against the Boston Celtics. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable and missed the Bucks previous game. If he is declared out, almost all betting lines in this match will change.

Green has an advantage if Antetokounmpo is out, but still gives maximum effort regardless of his opponent. Milwaukee allows 51.8 rebounds per game and Green could have several defensive rebounding opportunities with Brook Lopez, Milwaukee’s starting center, averaging less than four per game in his last six games. The odds have shifted down on most books but Fanatics has kept it at +110 for now. Most sportsbook odds are at +100 and that is more than reasonable.


NBA Parlay Today, 3/6: Futures Bet

NBA Western Conference Winner: Nuggets + NBA Eastern Conference Winner: Bucks (+1187 on DraftKings) *Placed With $35 Bonus Bet

Yesterday’s draftkings bonus bet was on Darius Garland to make the first three of the game. Although he made several three-point attempts, he did not make the first of the game. However the stats were true, and the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers made thirty-five three-point attempts. The bet required only twenty-five dollars and if you placed the minimum the bonus bet is actually a ten-dollar increase. 

Most of the time it would be advised to place it on a bet available tonight, after all this column still has a goal of forty units to gain. But to maximize our value on a 'bonus’ bet, a parlay on futures is recommended. DraftKings has it located under the NBA tab, and ‘TEAM FUTURES’ sub tab. 

You must then click the section listed ‘CONFERENCE WINNER’. Once there the Eastern Conference is listed first, with ‘MIL Bucks’ listed at +290, select that option. The Western Conference is listed below and ‘DEN Nuggets’ are listed at +230. 

Once parlayed the odds shift to +1187. Select your $35.00 BONUS BET instead of placing a value for your wager. The payoff for this essentially zero-value wager is $415.45. It is a gamble but the winners of four of the last five NBA MVP awards, and two of the last three NBA Finals MVP awards, are more than capable of leading their teams back to the NBA Finals.


Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise