The New York Knicks did something they haven’t done this century, close out a playoff series at Madison Square Garden. This -2.5 spread was covered with ease and could have been teased up by much more. They defeated the Boston Celtics by 38 points, in a dominating statement win that will stay in the hearts of Knicks fans for the rest of their lives.

The statement was not kind to the over 210 points prediction. It fell short by 10 points, and had the Celtics not waved the white flag at the end of third quarter, it likely would have been successful. In doing that Jalen Brunson was not able to cover the 30+ alternate point line because he was not needed in the fourth quarter. He did score 23 points, but if it was not a blowout, he likely would have scored more than 30. 

The logic and data were correct, but blowout wins in a close out game against defending champions are rare. Still the damage was kept to a minimum thanks to the spread being covered. 

 

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/18

There is only one match remaining in the Conference Semifinals, and it is guaranteed to be a thriller. All three NBA best bets today come from this crucial game seven.

 

 

 

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Denver Moneyline (+240 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT 

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets at the Paycom Center in an afternoon game seven. The stakes can not be much higher and both teams have valid reasons as to why they could win this match. Oklahoma City has the regular season record and deep bench to ease the burden. Denver has the playoff experience and the best statistical tandem on the court, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

Denver has been underdogs in every game of this series, and almost all of their 14 playoff games of 2025. If a bettor placed a unit on their moneyline of every game they would be up over three units. Tonight they are +8.0 point underdogs, and there is plenty of value on the moneyline once again. 

The bad news is Aaron Gordon is expected to be out, and he is an important piece of their success since they traded for him. However it is the core of Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr that have been in these high pressure moments since being drafted by Denver.

They thrive in these moments, and are no stranger to the pressure. They will not feel the burden of a game seven as it is their second of the 2025 playoffs. Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, and Russell Westbrook have played important minutes in the playoffs and paired with Jokic, Murray, Porter, and Christian Braun have proven the ability to outplay the Thunder.

Put a unit on the Nuggets to upset the Thunder, and defy the sportsbooks in game seven. For those new to Bet365, make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article.

 

 

 

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Fantasy Alarm has discussed at length the playoff tenacity of Jamal Murray. Although some players have the nickname of “playoff _____”, playoff Jamal has the numbers, and the championship to back it up. When it comes to game seven there are few players in the history of the Association that have experienced the level that Murray has.

Not even Michael Jordan can compare to the greatness that is “game seven Jamal”. Jordan played in three game sevens, half as many as Murray. In his six game sevens Murray has averaged 24.7 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. That is more than his career regular season average of 18.0 points and his 2025 average of 21.4 points. The numbers and game tape have proven his ability to rise to the moment.

The expectation is for him to do it once again. No one has played more minutes in this 2025 Conference Semifinals, and Murray is poised for another 40 or more minutes tonight. He has scored over this line in three of the last four games of this series (25, 28, 27), and has proven that the Thunder are unable to stop his hot streaks. 

With Gordon projected out, Murray must be an offensive powerhouse. He can score from three, excels at the mid-range, is one of the most underrated finishers at the rim in the Association, and has one of the highest playoff free throw percentage of all-time. Put simply he is unstoppable. Put a unit on this best bet today, and make sure to place it at DraftKings, at near even odds. For those new to DraftKings, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for free bonus bets.

 

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/18

The last NBA best bet today is also a player proposition. As it so happens it will be on a player that is no stranger to game sevens at the Paycom Center.

 

 

 

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Russell Westbrook 5+ Rebounds (+175 on BetMGM) *2.0 U

Russell Westbrook may be forced into his largest role of the playoffs. He leads all bench players in points during the 2025 playoffs, and he may not come off the bench for game seven. It would be either him or Peyton Watson that starts if Gordon does not play, but Westbrook brings a tenacity to the basketball court that few have ever been able to match.

That tenacity leads to points, rebounds, assists, and trips to the foul line. He will need to do all four things to give the Nuggets their best chance to win today’s game. However if Gordon is unable to play, the rebounds must be replaced, and Westbrook is the best candidate to do it. He recorded 8 in game six, and has four or more in his last ten games. 

His line is set at 3.5 with juice across almost all sportsbooks. Instead of taking the offered line, tease it up to 5+, and get fantastic odds. Although over 3.5 rebounds for Westbrook is the safest bet of the day, he has recorded 5+ in six of his last ten games. He knows what his task is, and rebounds are rewards for those that put in the effort. 

Data and tape are the driving force for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, but the romance of a good narrative should not be ignored. Westbrook has played in five game sevens, four of them involving the Thunder, three of them with Oklahoma City, and one against. This will be his sixth game seven and second in back to back series. He has five or more rebounds in all of the previous game sevens (including the last round against the Los Angeles Clippers), and has a career average of 8.2 rebounds per game in game sevens.

This will be Westbrook's fifth game seven involving the Thunder, and there is not a better narrative then the old veteran surprises everyone with his best performance of the playoffs. Put two units on this NBA best bet, and expect Westbrook to continue his streak of five or more rebounds in close out game sevens. 

Enjoy watching him remind the Thunder fans how great he can be, while ripping out the hearts of those that once loved (and some still do love) him dearly. Place this wager at BETMGM and for new customers make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for up to $1,500 in best bets.

 

 

 

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