Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Thursday, July 13th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some quality pitchers in Payton Tolle, Logan Gilbert, Parker Messick, and Max Fried all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 6-Games | Lock Time: 1:10 pm ET, Thursday, August 13th, 2026

Vegas Totals: CHC/WAS (highest-projected game), CIN/CWS & PHI/MIN (tied for second-highest game total), PIT/MIA & CLE/DET (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Logan Gilbert 6.5 O/U (-149), Max Fried 5.5 O/U (-138), Payton Tolle 5.5 O/U (-134), Braxton Ashcraft 5.5 O/U (-121), Parker Messick 5.5 O/U (-101)

MLB Weather Today, 8/13

Reds vs White Sox - They've moved the game up to try and avoid the storms that are likely on the way. The end of the game feels like it'll be wet no matter what they do. Should get the entire game in with the time change.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Payton Tolle (BOS)

Analysis: Tolle is coming off arguably his best start to date and gets a fantastic matchup here on Thursday. The Blue Jays are 30th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year.

Logan Gilbert (SEA)

Analysis: Since June 1st when Aaron Judge exited the lineup, the Yankees have a 92 wRC+ and a 25.9% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Elite matchup for Gilbert who has bizarre home/road splits and keeps the ball in the yard away from Seattle. 

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Max Fried (NYY)

Analysis: You could make the argument that Max Fried's the best pitcher per dollar on this slate for sure. He's being rostered that way too. At just $8.5K on DK, Fried threw 90 pitches in his last start and draws a matchup against the Mariners who rank 27th in wRC+ (88) against lefties while striking out 23.8% of the time. Fried's Ks have been on the rise since returning from his elbow bruise.

Parker Messick (CLE)

Analysis: Messick lands here because of the pitcher he is more so than the matchup. Messick's been one of the best pitchers in the league and is under priced on DK under 9K. The Tigers are a league average 100 wRC+ offense against southpaws this year. Messick's one of five pitchers getting 20% or more ownership.

Kevin Gausman (CHC)

Analysis: The pitcher with the highest win and outs odds today are Kevin Gausman. All of his pitching + defense metrics fit the Chicago Cubs perfectly and we saw in his debut he pitched to a lot of contact and got through seven innings because of it. Gausman is a very safe option today.

Davis Martin (CWS)

Analysis: Here's your risk/reward play of the day. Davis Martin has undoubtedly been terrible since the end of June. No denying it. This is a spot that could get him back on track. The Reds are simply a pathetic offense against righties posting a 25.6% K-rate and 85 wRC+, which are league worsts in both categories.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Payton Tolle: 28.5% K% (10.4 K/9)

Braxton Ashcraft: 26.6% K% (9.9 K/9)

Logan Gilbert: 26.4% K% (9.4 K/9)

Cade Cavalli: 25.5% K% (9.9 K/9)

Parker Messick: 25.1% K% (8.9 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE) & Chase DeLauter (OF, CLE)

Analysis: Keider Montero has a three year history of struggling with lefties and here lie the best two lefty bats on the Guardians.

Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) & Willson Contreras (1B, BOS)

Analysis: BOTH splits have a .240 ISO or higher against Max Scherzer this season. What more do you want on the other side as both players here are .200+ ISO guys against righty hurlers?

Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN)

Analysis: I like Davis Martin today but De La Cruz is catching a LOT of ownership and for good reason. He's been a bright spot against righties posting a .209 ISO and .361 wOBA agaisnt them.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC)

Analysis: The possible MVP of the league has a .252 ISO and 24 HR against right-handed pitching this year. Lefties – although some luck is attached – has given Cade Cavalli fits this year.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Chase Meidroth (2B, CWS) & Brenton Doyle (OF, CWS)

Analysis: Meidroth has a near 1.000 OPS against lefties this year and Doyle has rated out as a plus hitter against lefties in both ‘25 & ’24. Hasn't had a big enough sample this season.

Griffin Conine (OF, MIA)

Analysis: Big, big, big power. .331 ISO, .301 xISO, .419 wOBA, & .398 xwOBA agaisnt righties. Ashcraft has had a lefty home run problem of late.

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, CLE)

Analysis: Keider Montero has a three year history of struggling with lefties and Lowe has a .250 ISO against right-handers.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Chicago White Sox vs Andrew Abbott (CIN LHP)

Targets: Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas, Brenton Doyle, Munetaka Murakami, Randal Grichuk

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Cade Cavalli (WAS RHP)

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Pedro Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki

“Contrarian” Stack: Cleveland Guardians vs Keider Montero (DET RHP)

Targets: Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Nathaniel Lowe, Travis Bazzana, Angel Genao

Primary Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Max Scherzer (TOR RHP)

Targets: Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Adley Rutschman

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Gilbert (SP, chalk)Gausman (SP, lower owned)More win equity attached to Gausman, Gilbert highest owned SP of day.
Red Sox (Chalk)Guardians (pivot stack)Guardians facing SP that doesn't get whiffs & struggles w/ lefties.
Rutschman + Yoshida (chalk)DeLauter + Lowe (lower owned)Higher home run ceiling with lower owned options here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Payton Tolle (SP1)
  2. Max Fried (SP2)
  3. Elly De La Cruz (Core Bat)
  4. Jose Ramirez (Core Bat)
  5. Chase DeLauter (Core Bat) 
  6. Nathaniel Lowe (Core Value Bat)
  7. Chase Meidroth (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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