Happy Monday, April 13th. We have a 9-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings starting at 6:40 pm ET and six games on FanDuel, starting at 7:05 pm ET.

It's an interesting day of baseball as DraftKings are including the three games at 6:40 while FanDuel cut them off. We have some stud pitchers taking the mound as Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sanchez, and Garrett Crochet are all taking the mound. We have a Sacramento slate today and somehow the over/under in that game is only nine runs.

For updated MLB DFS projections, lineup generator, and ownership projections, visit FantasyAlarm.com.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

Slate6-Game Slate on FD | Lock: 7:05 PM ET | 9-Game Slate on DK | Lock: 6:35 PM ET 
Top Game TotalsLAA/NYY (O/U - 9.5)  •  NYM/LAD (O/U - 8.5)  •  TEX/ATH (O/U - 8.5)  •  MIA/ATL (O/U - 8.5)  •  AZ/BAL (O/U - 8.5)
SP Ownership TierGarrett Crochet (BOS, 37% DK)  •  Paul Skenes (PIT, 35% DK)  •  Cristopher Sanchez (PHI, 25% DK)  •  Will Warren (NYY, 22% DK)
Highest K-ProjectionsGarrett Crochet (BOS, 7.5)  •  Cristopher Sanchez (PHI, 6.5)  •  Gavin Williams (CLE, 6.5)  •  Paul Skenes (PIT, 6.5)   •   Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, 6.5)
WeatherWAS/PIT - Delay possible. - LAA/NYY - Wind blowing out & warm, but possible delayed start. - BOS/MIN - has real PPD risk with the amount of rain in the area.

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Garrett Crochet (BOS) | vs MIN

It's all about the weather here. There is a lot of rain in the forecast and that could ultimately postpone the game. Minnesota's offense has been better than expected, ranking 12th in OPS vs. LHP. They do strike out at a 23.5% clip against lefties and Crochet has the highest strikeout O/U on the board.

Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | vs CHC

The Cubs have been pretty bad against left-handed pitching this year and have been striking out a LOT. The Cubs have a 27.8% K-rate against left-handed hurlers this year. Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in the game no matter how poorly he pitched last game.

Paul Skenes (PIT) | vs WSH

This matchup is interesting because the Nationals do not strike out a lot but Paul Skenes can dominate any singular lineup in the game. Washington is top-10 in OPS vs. RHP but Skenes got up to 87 pitches last start and is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Value Plays

Will Warren (NYY) | vs LAA

The strikeout upside is where the appeal is here. The Angels have struck out at a 25.9% clip against righties this year and that's what they do. They also have a fairly low OPS against righties ranking 23rd there while also ranking 23rd in wOBA and 22nd in wRC+.

Gavin Williams (CLE) | vs STL

Gavin Williams needs to throw strikes, that's his primary issue. When he's dialed in, he misses a ton of bats and the matchup today is pretty good. The Cardinals rank 25th in OPS and wOBA and 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) | vs NYY

This is a risky one and not for the weak, but the numbers are what the numbers are. The Yankees are the worst team in baseball against lefties. It's a small sample, but they've been horrendous. They have a .405 OPS, .196 wOBA, 23 wRC+ and all three are the worst in baseball. They've also struck out 28.1% of the time. Kikuchi could rack up the punch outs here.

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) | vs BAL 

Corbin Carroll is absolutely smashing baseballs and crushes right-handed pitching. Carroll has a .241 ISO, .263 xISO, .381 wOBA, and .385 xwOBA against righties this year and Dean Kremer is being called up to make his debut this year.

Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL) | vs ARI

I'm not sure Ryne Nelson has gotten any lefties out this year and if you haven't heard, Gunnar Henderson is homering OFTEN. Henderson has a .269 ISO and .345 wOBA against righties. Henderson has allowed a .323 ISO, .399 xISO, .339 wOBA, and .443 xwOBA.

Nick Kurtz & Tyler Soderstrom (1B/OF, ATH) | vs TEX

Nathan Eovaldi's ownership is high and I think that's incredibly risky considering the ballpark he has to navigate here. Lefties have crushed Eovaldi in the early going allowing a .268 ISO, .206 xISO, .482 wOBA, and .348 xwOBA. Kurtz has a .244 xISO and .400 xwOBA vs. RHP while Soderstrom has a .205 ISO and .351 wOBA versus righties too.

Corey Seager & Brandon Nimmo (SS/OF, TEX) | vs ATH

Luis Severino couldn't get anyone out at home last year pitching to a 6.01 ERA and he was very vocal about how much he did not enjoy pitching in Sacramento. Seager has a .300 ISO vs. RHP while Nimmo is cooking with gas against them too, posting a .238 ISO and .476 wOBA.

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

  • Willson Contreras (1B, BOS): If the rain holds off, righties are crushing Bailey Ober allowing a .207 ISO & .388 wOBA. Contreras has a .190 ISO & .422 wOBA vs. RHP.
  • Jordan Walker (OF, STL): Can anyone slow this man down? He just keeps homering. He has a .316 ISO and .423 xISO, so it could even be better.   
  • Amed Rosario (2B/3B, NYY):  Rosario does one thing well and it's hit lefties. He should hit in the heart of the Yankees order and is definitely a solid value option.
  • Josh Jung (3B, TEX): Josh Jung has woken up a bit and is 6-for-13 over his last four games. Elite ballpark and price tag.

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Texas Rangers

Targets: Seager, Nimmo, Burger, Carter, Jung, Smith

Opponent: Athletics | TEX 5.0 implied

The splits Luis Severino had at home versus the road last year were crazy. He pitched to a 3.02 ERA on the road and 6.01 ERA at home. He allowed a .288/.352/.442 slash and 10 of his 16 homers allowed in Sutter Health Field. The Rangers are priced so fairly too.

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles

Targets: Henderson, Alonso, Ward, Basallo, Beavers, Jackson, Cowser

Opponent: Arizona Diamondbacks | BAL 4.5 implied 

Ryne Nelson takes the mound today and he hasn't been able to get lefties out this year after not getting righties out last season. He's been quite inconsistent. Lefties have already hit three bombs with a .484 SLG% and righties were at .442 SLG% last year. They have a good mixture of righties & lefties.

Contrarian Stack: Athletics

Targets: Kurtz, Soderstrom, Langeliers, Muncy, Butler, Cortes 

Opponent: Texas Rangers | ATH 4.1 implied 

Some of Nathan Eovaldi's expected numbers look way better than his actual numbers do but lefties have had a TON of success against him thus far. Lefties have a .390/.432/.659 slash with three home runs and despite being a little unlucky, he's still allowed a .206 xISO and .348 xwOBA. The A's can throw a bunch of lefties Eovaldi's way.

Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

Targets: Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, Del Castillo, Fernandez, Vargas

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles | ARI 4.5 implied 

Lefty power was the primary issue that Dean Kremer had last year as he allowed a .189 ISO and .199 xISO to them last year. The DBacks have a bunch of lefties right at the top of their lineup that could give Kremer fits today and the wind is blowing out on a warm day.

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The Chalk (Popular)

The Pivot (Low Owned)

The Winning Logic

Crochet (highly owned)Sanchez (lower-owned)Bad weather in MIN and Sanchez (by the numbers) has the better matchup for a cheaper price tag.
Warren (highly owned)Kikuchi (low-owned)Everyone's playing Warren and nobody is playing Kikuchi despite the Yankees being the worst team in baseball vs. LHP.
NYY Chalk Stack (Judge, Stanton, Rosario, Goldschmidt all highly owned )TEX Stack (lower-owned)Yankees have been baaaad vs. LHP and Texas faces a pitcher who can't pitch in Sacramento; also a MiLB Stadium.
ARI Chalk Stack (Tawa, Marte, Fernandez, Perdomo all getting ownership)BAL Stack (all pieces under 10%)Winds blowing out in BAL on a hot day against a pitcher struggling with keeping the ball in the yard.

🎯 HEART OF THE ORDER

The core pieces for every lineup you build today. Ownership drives the cash versus GPP label.

SP1Garrett Crochet (BOS)
Core BatGunnar Henderson (BAL)
Core Bat Corey Seager (TEX)
Core BatBrandon Nimmo (TEX)
Value CoreWillson Contreras (BOS)
Value CoreAdrian Del Castillo (ARI) 
Value CoreJosh Jung (TEX)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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