Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Friday, September 25th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some quality hitters in Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Shohei Ohtani, and Zack Gelof all digging into the box. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 10-Games | Lock Time: 7:07 pm ET on DK, Friday, September 25th, 2026

Vegas Totals: HOU/ATH (highest-projected game), ATL/MIA, COL/CWS & STL/MIL (tied for second-highest game total), ARI/SD & LAD/SF (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Tarik Skubal 7.5 O/U (+112), Gavin Williams 6.5 O/U (-137), Reid Detmers 6.5 O/U (-124), Jacob deGrom 6.5 O/U (-102), Bryce Miller 6.5 O/U (+113), Sean Burke 6.5 O/U (+116), Joe Ryan 6.5 O/U (+117)

MLB Weather Today, 9/25

Guardians vs Royals - There's a chance that there's a little rain that causes a small delay, but nothing we should worry about.

Astros vs Athletics - There's 80 degree weather with winds blowing out. Slight bump to bats and simply the best environment on the slate.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Tarik Skubal (LAD)

Analysis: We'll see if Tarik Skubal pitches a full workload here but we did see Tyler Glasnow strike out 11 and pitch into the 7th last night. Vegas loves Skubal too and the matchup is as good as it gets. Vegas thinks they're going to get Skubal full run but let's not forget who manages the Dodgers.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Analysis: The Guardians are still playing for their division and we should see Gavin Williams extended for as long as they need him for. The Royals have been a good offense since the break but Williams has the highest K-rate on the slate and is consistently putting up 30+ DKP games.

Jacob deGrom (TEX)

Analysis: The Twins offense has hit the skids without Byron Buxton and rank 19th in wRC+ at 95. deGrom, before last start, pitched really well in four straight games putting up 20+ DKP in each and twice topping 35. He has a big ceiling.

Reid Detmers (LAA)

Analysis: Detmers has a big ceiling because he's an elite strikeout artist. This spot is a good strikeout spot too. The Mariners have struck out 23.7% of the time versus lefties since the ASB.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Sean Burke (CWS)

Analysis: The White Sox have made it clear they're going for the division, so we should see a full workload out of Sean Burke today. He's looked good in three of four allowing 1 ER or less in 3-of-4 starts and has a dream spot against the Rockies. The Rockies have a 90 wRC+ vs. RHP since the break.

Bryce Miller (SEA)

Analysis: Regardless of what happened to Bryan Woo last night, Bryce Miller has the best spot on the board. We saw Woo throw his most pitches of the year last night despite being eliminated from the playoffs. Miller has pitched well in two straight starts and gets the Angels, who are last in wRC+ and have the highest K-rate in baseball vs. RHP since the break. 

Robert Gasser (MIL)

Analysis: The Cardinals have struggled against southpaws since the break and Gasser has pitched well. They have a 97 wRC+ and strike out 22.9% of the time. Gasser's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight games and has 14+ DKP in four of his last five outings.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Gavin Williams: 33.5% K% (12.1 K/9)

Jacob deGrom: 30.4% K% (11.1 K/9)

Tarik Skubal: 29.5% K% (10.4 K/9)

Reid Detmers: 28.4% K% (10.3 K/9)

Hunter Brown: 28.1% K% (10.6 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU), Jeremy Pena (SS, HOU) & Christian Walker (1B, HOU)

Analysis: The Astros look fantastic against Jacob Lopez today who's turned into a pumpkin pitching to a 10.3 ERA along with a .358/.398/.691 slash allowed. All of that plus the fact that it's in Sutter Health Park puts Alvarez, Pena, Walker, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Altuve on the forefront of our minds.

Brice Turang (2B, MIL), Jake Bauers (1B/OF, MIL) & Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL)

Analysis: Michael McLucky is really his name. That's been the case all year long. Lefties have hit him hard despite the luck allowing a .439 SLG% and .331 wOBA. The expected stats are worse allowing a .218 xISO and .368 xwOBA. All three of these guys have a .178 ISO and .200 xISO against right-handed pitching this year.

Miguel Vargas (3B, CWS), Munetaka Murakami (1B, CWS) & Chase Meidroth (2B, CWS)

Analysis: Home runs are the name of the game and that's what Tomoyuki Sugano is good at doing; serving them up. Lefties have a .282 ISO and righties have a .202 ISO against Sugano. Vargas has a .213 ISO, Murakami is a .294 ISO, and Meidroth hasn't been as good vs. RHP this year, but is raking at the dish right now.

Kazuma Okamoto (3B, TOR)

Analysis: Okamoto has hit every split, but has really dominated lefties. He has a .269 ISO, .312 xISO, .366 wOBA, and .367 xwOBA against southpaws as well as having 10 HR in 163 plate appearances. Okamoto faces Lodolo who has allowed righties to post a .226 ISO, .206 xISO, .359 wOBA, and .377 xwOBA against him.

Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI)

Analysis: It's been his entire career, but Casey Mize is a reverse splits pitcher. He's been an awful pitcher in general as a Padres. Righties have a .243 ISO, .227 xISO, .355 wOBA, and .351 xwOBA against Mize this year. Gabriel Moreno has a .178 ISO and .395 wOBA

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Nolan Arenado (3B, ARI)

Analysis: It has been a treat to see Nolan Arenado hit lately as he's homered eight times in 20 games in September while hitting .351. Arenado has a .187 ISO and 18 HR vs. RHP this year and Casey Mize is super reverse splits, so it's very live Arenado gets to 30 homers.

Kyle Teel (C, CWS)

Analysis: Kyle Teel is starting to heat up and it's been due to a power surge. Teel has a .177 ISO and .184 xISO against righties this year and has belted three bombs since 9/6. Sugano has allowed a .282 ISO vs. LHH this year. Great spot to homer.

Corey Seager (SS, TEX) & Josh Jung (3B, TEX)

Analysis: Joe Ryan has not been good since his last arm injury and he's struggled against both splits. Over the last 90 days, he allowed a .273 ISO (453 pitches) to lefties and righties have a .259 ISO (357 pitches). Seager and Jung are FAR too cheap for their upside and both are big-time home run upside plays.

Cam Smith & Nelson Velazquez (OF, HOU)

Analysis: Since Jacob Lopez turned into a pumpkin, it's righties that are demolishing him. He has a .338 ISO and .442 wOBA against right-handed hitters and we should see Smith and Velaquez in the lineup. Both guys are pinch hit candidates later in the contest, but Smith has a .215 ISO (145 PAs) and Velazquez has a .254 ISO (74 PAs)

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Houston Astros vs Jacob Lopez (ATH LHP)

Targets: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith, Nelson Velazquez

Primary Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs Michael McGreevy (STL RHP)

Targets: Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich, Luis Lara, Jackson Chourio

Primary Stack: White Sox vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL RHP)

Targets: Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci

“Contrarian” Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Casey Mize (SDP RHP)

Targets: Nolan Arenado, Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Lars Nootbaar, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo

“Contrarian” Stack: Texas Rangers vs Joe Ryan (MIN RHP)

Targets: Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, Wyatt Langford

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

Skubal (SP, chalk)deGrom (SP, lower owned)
Astros (Chalk)White Sox (pivot stack)
Baldwin + Harris (chalk)Vargas + Meidroth (lower owned)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Gavin Williams (SP1)
  2. Bryce Miller (SP2)
  3. Yordan Alvarez (Core Bat)
  4. Miguel Vargas (Core Bat)
  5. Christian Walker (Core Bat)
  6. Cam Smith (Core Value Bat)
  7. Nolan Arenado (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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