The 2023 MLB playoff picture is still very much in flux and we have tons of divisional matchups on Monday night's Major League Baseball schedule with postseason implications. Of course, the MLB trade deadline is just a day away as the MLB trade rumors and baseball trade news make our MLB betting picks even more interesting right now. Let's look at tonight's AL East matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, and the NL West tilt between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants for MLB best bets tonight. All of these squads could be playing October baseball this fall and might make more roster moves by this time tomorrow. Read on to find MLB bets, MLB player props, and baseball picks for Monday night's games. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props. Let's now jump into the MLB best bets and baseball betting picks for Monday, July 31st.

 

MLB Best Bets for July 31

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 pm ET

After besting the New York Yankees in a weekend series, the Baltimore Orioles now have to ramp the intensity back up for another AL East battle. The O’s head north to take on the Toronto Blue Jays in tonight’s series opener and we should see the home squad get out to an early lead. First off, Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt boasts strong home numbers this season with a 2.24 ERA, 3.20 FIP, .167 BAA, and .230 wOBA allowed in his Toronto starts this season. Meanwhile, the Orioles have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching lately. Baltimore has the league’s worst offense in a number of categories vs righties over the past two weeks (.253 wOBA, .197 BA, .122 ISO, and 57 wRC+ vs righties in this recent stretch). Though the O’s did plate nine runs last night, they’re still a bottom-5 lineup vs right-handers over the past week. On the other side, bank on the Blue Jays to provide Bassitt with some run support. Orioles starter Kyle Gibson has been decent at times recently, but he still has a 6.39 ERA over his last seven starts and a 4.75 ERA in the month of July. The Toronto offense has a .349 wOBA, .205 ISO, and .277 BA vs righties over the past week. We’re keeping this to the first five innings because the Blue Jays bullpen is a big wild card with Jordan Romano on the IL and Jordan Hicks just coming over in a trade. 

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-138 on FanDuel)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants – 9:45 pm ET

Sometimes we get home/road splits for starting pitchers that are just impossible to ignore at this point in the season. Ryne Nelson is one of those guys with some eye-opening numbers on the road compared to at home. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander boasts an impressive 2.67 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .223 BAA across 11 road starts this year compared to an 8.01 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and .356 BAA in 10 home outings. That’s some Jekyll-and-Hyde stuff from the second-year pitcher. Nelson has allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in eight of his 11 road starts so far, including four straight against some tough offenses like the Braves, Blue Jays, and Angels this month. Nelson tossed seven innings of one-run ball on the road against the San Francisco Giants a month ago as well. He could replicate that tonight against this inconsistent offense. Since the All-Star break, the Giants are below-average vs righties with a .306 wOBA, .167 ISO, and 28.7% strikeout rate. This team total for San Fran seems a bit too high considering the team has scored fewer than five runs in 10 of the last 11 games, averaging just 2.5 runs per game in this stretch. We’ll also add the Nelson earned runs prop because of the aforementioned track record on the road. 

Pick: San Francisco Giants Team Total UNDER 4.5 (-130 on BetMGM)

Pick: Ryne Nelson UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (+110 on DraftKings)