Welcome back to another week of MLB best bets and baseball betting picks! The 2023 MLB playoff race is in full swing and we have plenty of matchups tonight that can impact the postseason picture. Our top MLB bets today feature a few teams that would love a win tonight to bolster their Wild Card chances. The top MLB picks and baseball bets for tonight feature an NL showdown between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds with Eury Perez back on the mound. Plus, we look at the Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup and the Kansas City Royals taking on the Boston Red Sox. Read on to find MLB bets, MLB player props, and baseball picks for Monday night's games. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props. Let's now jump into the MLB best bets and baseball betting picks for Monday, August 7th.

 

MLB Best Bets for August 7

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 pm ET 

This is an interesting matchup between two teams who are battling for an NL Wild Card spot but are also both slumping over the past couple of weeks. The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins are both 3-7 in their last 10 games while slipping behind the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, respectively, in their divisions since the All-Star break. This series has plenty of postseason implications and we’re backing the visiting Marlins to have the advantage tonight. Top prospect Eury Perez is back in the Miami rotation after spending the past month down in the minors. Perez has been excellent this year with a 2.36 ERA in 11 big-league starts. He may not go deep into this game, but all of the Marlins’ top relievers are well-rested. The Reds offense, meanwhile, has just a .298 wOBA and 78 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over the past two weeks and the righty Perez has the stuff to blank them.

On the other side, look for the Miami offense to provide run support for Perez in its own matchup. Red starter Brandon Williamson has a 4.85 ERA this season and just coughed up five runs to the Cubs last start. The left-hander looked solid in July, but he also benefited from some easier matchups. The Marlins come in with a dangerous lineup in this split with a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+ vs lefties this season (both third in MLB). Over the past week vs southpaws, they have a .374 wOBA and 140 wRC+ with help from trade deadline additions Jake Burger and Josh Bell. 

Pick: Miami Marlins Money Line (-148 FanDuel)

Pick: Miami Marlins 1st 5 Innings -0.5 Runline (-120 DraftKings)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 pm ET

Both the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies have been playing in some higher-scoring games lately, so let’s bank on that continuing tonight in their series opener. Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia here and his home/road splits are pretty drastic. The left-hander has a 5.70 ERA at home compared to a 2.76 ERA on the road this season, continuing a trend as also saw last year. Suarez isn’t far removed from posting a 6.11 ERA in July, which included five runs allowed to Washington a month ago. The Nationals can easily get to him again as they’re in their better splits vs lefties (.335 wOBA, 108 wRC+) than righties (.303 wOBA, 87 wRC+). This offense has been tough on southpaws all year and have a .347 wOBA against them since the All-Star break. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies should also put up runs against Nationals starter Trevor Williams. The right-hander has a 6.06 ERA over his past seven starts and has a 5.02 ERA/1.60 WHIP on the road this year. The Phils offense has picked it up lately and boasts a .346 wOBA and 117 wRC+ vs righties over the past week. In two starts vs Philly this season, Williams has given up seven runs over 10.2 combined innings. It’s also worth mentioning that four of the last five Nats games have featured at least nine total runs. As for the Phils, four of their last five have seen 12+ total runs. Look for these trends to continue as the offenses get the upper hand tonight. Let’s also throw in a player prop for Nick Castellanos, who has some excellent BvP numbers vs Williams with a .393 BA (11-for-28), two homers, and four doubles.

Pick: Nationals/Phillies OVER 10 Total Runs (-105 BetMGM)

Pick: Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET

Although the Kansas City Royals are way out of the MLB playoff picture, the offense is rolling right now and presents a scary matchup for any opposing pitcher. In fact, the Royals are averaging 6.3 runs per game over the past nine contests and have scored 4+ runs in 11 of the last 15 games. This young KC lineup is not going quietly and Brayan Bello could have issues limiting the runs tonight. The Boston Red Sox right-hander has struggled lately with a 6.55 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break with 3+ runs allowed in each outing. It’s worth noting that Bello’s 4.40 FIP and 4.14 xERA are both higher than his current 3.79 ERA as well. Meanwhile, the Royals offense is hammering right-handed pitching right now with a .351 wOBA, .285 BA, and 121 wRC+ in the split over the past two weeks. After Bello, the bullpen won't help much as the Red Sox relievers have a 5.22 ERA over the past week. The Kansas City team total of 3.5 runs seems a bit too low with how hot the offense has been and the shaky Boston pitching. 

Pick: Kansas City Royals Team Total OVER 3.5 Runs (-145 DraftKings)