MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For July 11th, 2026
Time to dig up the best stolen base picks for today. Our streak did not continue as we had hoped with yesterday’s picks. These things happen, especially when you look at the stolen bases from Friday’s action – not as abundant as we would have hoped. We saw a stolen base from Jose Caballero and Esteury Ruiz was mentioned in the article, but overall, there wasn’t a ton of action on the bases and certainly not much from any of our usual suspects. We simply dust ourselves off and get right back onto that horse. Let’s dive into the stolen base picks today, shall we?
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Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!
Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.
- Jose Caballero, New York Yankees (+237)
- Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+256)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (+271)
- Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees (+275)
- Kahlil Watson, Cleveland Guardians (+284)
- Jorge Mateo, Atlanta Braves (+291)
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today
When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.
- Eury Perez, Miami Marlins – 18 SB allowed
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins – 14 SB allowed
- Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals – 14 SB allowed
- Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers – 11 SB allowed
- Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves – 11 SB allowed
- Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies – 10 SB allowed
Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases
The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.
- Mickey Gasper, Boston Red Sox – 0% CS (12 att.)
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals – 0% CS (20 att.)
- Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves – 4% CS (23 att.)
- Austin Hedges, Cleveland Guardians – 7% CS (28 att.)
- Victor Caratini, Minnesota Twins – 11% CS (38 att.)
- Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates – 12% CS (17 att.)
- Brett Sullivan, Colorado Rockies – 12% CS (26 att.)
- Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox – 12% CS (17 att.)
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays – 13% CS (24 att.)
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:
Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Saturday, July 11:
Favorite Bets:
Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Guardians (+336)
Once again, I’m looking at both Rocchio and second baseman Travis Bazzana as both hit righties well. I’m also looking at Khalil Watson who has the lowest odds of the three, but in the end, I’m going to lean on Rocchio once again. Perez is coming off his best start, a near-perfect game – perfect for seven – but he’s still allowed the most stolen bases (18) of any pitcher in baseball right now. His catchers also have a combined 25-percent caught-stealing rate which is below average. Rocchio’s got a .342 wOBA against righties, nine steals against them and he doesn’t strike out. He’s also got three steals and one caught-stealing over his last 12 games, so we’ll land here again.
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (+489)
We’re digging deeper here in the odds bin, as Braves righthander Reynaldo Lopez has allowed 11 stolen bases this season and his catchers have been terrible. Drake Baldwin has just a four-percent caught-stealing rate on 23 attempts and Joey Bart is at 19-percent on 21 attempts. Obviously, we prefer Baldwin behind the dish, but we’re betting this anyway. Walker is posting a .370 wOBA with 10 stolen bases against righthanders this season, so I expect to see him on base and running.
