MLB Stolen Base Picks Today: Best Stolen Base Predictions For September 29th, 2026
The postseason starts today, and four Wild Card Game 1s fill the slate. The day opens with Phillies-Braves at 2 p.m. ET from Truist Park and closes with Cubs-Padres at Petco Park. In between, Houston and Chicago open with a bullpen game on both sides, and the Yankees host the Red Sox in another October rivalry meeting.
Our MLB stolen base picks today weigh each runner's volume and success rate against the pitcher and catcher he will actually face, because the battery matters as much as the legs. Before you lock anything in, check the numbers against our MLB Player Prop Tool and shop prices with our MLB Odds Finder. Let's get into the best stolen base predictions for today.
Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today
A short slate still has plenty of speed, and several runners outside our two featured picks have matchups worth a look. These best stolen base predictions pair season volume and efficiency with the battery each runner draws tonight.
- Trea Turner, Bryson Stott and Justin Crawford (PHI) vs. Chris Sale: This is the friendliest battery on the board. Sale has allowed 7 steals on 8 attempts, and Atlanta's Drake Baldwin has thrown out just 8.1% of runners. Stott is a perfect 27-for-27, and Turner brings 21 steals with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed
- Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Matthew Boyd: Tatis has 38 steals at a 74.5% success rate. Boyd has not allowed a steal all season and has two pickoffs, but Carson Kelly grades 4.2 caught stealing below average if he catches
- Ronald Acuna (ATL) vs. Jesus Luzardo: Luzardo gets run on more than any starter on the slate. The catch is J.T. Realmuto's strong arm, which is why Acuna's 72.4% success rate gives us pause
- Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Cam Schlittler: Duran is 21-for-25 with a 29.0 ft/sec sprint speed. Austin Wells has thrown out only 14.3% of basestealers this season
- Miguel Vargas and Luisangel Acuna (CWS) vs. AJ Blubaugh: Houston's bullpen game means the White Sox will see several arms. Vargas is 22-for-24, and Acuna's 29.8 ft/sec sprint speed is among the fastest on the slate
Pitchers Most Vulnerable To Stolen Bases Today
Tonight's starting pitchers vary widely in how well they control the running game, and that gap shapes our MLB stolen base picks today. Ranked from most to least vulnerable:
- Jesus Luzardo (PHI): 10 SB, 6 CS allowed; 1.67% attempt rate, the highest among tonight's starters. He is the only one of the eight in negative territory on runs prevented against the running game (-0.8)
- Chris Sale (ATL): 7 SB, 1 CS allowed; runners have succeeded on 87.5% of their attempts against him
- Michael King (SD): 7 SB, 7 CS allowed; runners test him often (1.32% attempt rate) but have been thrown out half the time
- AJ Blubaugh (HOU): 4 SB, 3 CS allowed across 558 opportunities, and he is starting a bullpen game
- Cam Schlittler (NYY): 4 SB, 2 CS allowed
At the other end, Matthew Boyd (0 SB, 1 CS, 2 pickoffs) and Payton Tolle (3 SB, 2 CS) have been the hardest to run on. Hagen Smith has allowed just one steal, but in only 186 opportunities.
Catchers Allowing The Most Stolen Bases
The catcher is the other half of any stolen base read, and he often matters as much as the pitcher. These are the weakest throwers among tonight's expected starters, ranked by caught stealing above average:
- Drake Baldwin (ATL): 34 SB allowed on 37 attempts, 8.1% CS rate, -4.9 caught stealing above average
- Carson Kelly (CHC): 50 SB allowed on 61 attempts, 18.0% CS rate, -4.2
- Austin Wells (NYY): 30 SB allowed on 35 attempts, 14.3% CS rate, -3.0, with a 1.97-second pop time, the slowest of this group
- Christian Vazquez (HOU): 49 SB allowed on 64 attempts, 23.4% CS rate, -1.6
At the other end, the strongest arms on the slate are Freddy Fermin (SD, +6.4), Adley Rutschman (BOS, +5.6) and Luis Campusano (SD, +4.3). Rutschman gets the start for Boston tonight, and he has thrown out 36.2% of runners. Both of our featured picks have to beat one of these catchers, which is why these best stolen base predictions lean on elite volume rather than a soft battery.
Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
Nobody on this slate combines volume and efficiency on the bases like Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished the regular season with 45 home runs and 41 stolen bases. He converted 41 of 48 attempts for an 85.4% success rate, and his 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed is among the elite marks in the sport. His on-base skills have kept pace, with a .278/.372/.570 slash line giving him far more chances to run than he had a year ago. King is not a pitcher runners avoid: he has faced 14 attempts, split evenly between seven steals and seven caught stealing, and San Diego's catchers all grade above average. The case here is volume.
The Cubs are an extremely patient lineup facing a pitcher who does not fill up the zone, and one projection has King at roughly 85 pitches, so extra walks and extra bullpen innings mean more green lights for the likely NL MVP. At plus money, you only need one clean jump from the best base stealer in the field.
Jose Caballero Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
Jose Caballero does not need an invitation to run, and his 34 steals ranked fifth in the American League this season. He went 34-for-45 on attempts, a 75.6% success rate backed by a 28.0 ft/sec sprint speed. He has run in big spots recently, too, going 1-for-3 with two stolen bases in the first game of a Sept. 22 doubleheader against the Rays.
The matchup is not easy: Tolle has allowed just three steals on five attempts, and Adley Rutschman has thrown out 36.2% of runners. What tips the scale is how New York wins this series. The Yankees finished sixth in stolen bases, and with Aaron Judge's availability in question, Aaron Boone has every reason to manufacture runs in a tight rivalry game. Caballero is projected to bat eighth at third base, so his plate appearances are limited, but when he reaches base, he goes.
These are our MLB stolen base picks today, and they round out our best stolen base predictions for Wild Card Tuesday.