Today’s MLB slate may not be as loaded as yesterday’s, but it’s still one that features early action, so why not lock in the best MLB home run picks right now? We’ve got four afternoon games leading up to the six-pack of matchups in the evening, so it’s far from a small slate anyway. From Tampa Bay’s lefty Shane McClanahan to start it all to Bryan Woo vs. Roki Sasaki to wrap it up, we have so much to check out for the top MLB home run predictions today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

As if we haven’t name-dropped enough already, with Eury Perez also on the slate, you’ll want to make the most of our MLB expert picks as well. For those only laser-focused on MLB home run picks, be sure to utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool for even more targets!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/30: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Before we even start breaking down starters like the ones previously mentioned, we always begin our MLB home run picks with our very own MLB weather report. That way, we can see which ballparks have the best conditions for dingers from wind, humidity, and more. Then, it’s time to check out the starters on the mound and the bullpens coming in behind them.

That handles weather and the mound, but of course, it’s the guys actually at the plate who are cashing in our MLB home run picks. So, we’ll check out their splits in terms of hitting righties/lefties, how well the matchup is with pitch types, and some expected metrics like slugging. So, let’s break down today’s top MLB home run predictions!

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (+360)

We actually wanted to see Nathan Eovaldi get this scheduled start; he’s one of those guys that can both rack up K’s and allow some homers (think Gerrit Cole). While we don’t get that matchup, we’re certainly not going to be sad - Jake Irvin is back! That Nationals righty is no stranger to allowing some MLB home run picks.

Irvin’s been off the mound since May 23, and he’s already not considered a great starter. The Braves also have the bats to capitalize (Drake Baldwin cashed in the +400s for us the other night), and Washington continues to have a historically bad bullpen. Well, we finally have a spot where we can pivot away from their arsenal of lefties.

Prior to missing time, it was righties that were having more success vs. Irvin, and we get to enjoy a healthy outfielder. So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Ronald Acuna, Jr. to hit a HR (+360 at BetMGM).

Ryan O'Hearn (+499)

We just noted the difference in righty/lefty splits for the matchup above, and there is another glaring one as we head to the NL Central rivalry of Pirates vs. Reds. This time, we’re picking on Reds righty Rhett Lowder, and of course, we always love when we can focus on the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for MLB home run picks.

Lefties vs. Lowder have launched balls, recording a .473 slugging, and let’s not forget about the Reds' lousy relief staff. They have the league’s sixth-worst bullpen ERA, and Pittsburgh has notable lefties that can mash. Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds hit back-to-back homers just the other night, in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game no less. 

Even still, it’s the right fielder with the better numbers vs. righties, including a .508 slugging, so we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Ryan O'Hearn hitting a HR (+499 at Novig). 

James Wood (+260)

You already saw us on the NL East rivalry, but to reiterate, the Atlanta Braves have to host the Washington Nationals. We say “have to,” as they have such a scary lineup, and it’s particularly scary with Grant Holmes starting. Well, scary for their fans - it’s great news for more MLB home run picks hitting in the nation’s capital.

He’s the polar opposite of lefty ace Chris Sale that we saw last night, as the righty has one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball. That’s what we love to see when facing the likes of James Wood and CJ Abrams, so it’s a classic pick-your-poison scenario. The difference-maker here is Wood being more successful vs. sliders, with Holmes loving to throw vs. lefties.

In fact, we’d actually recommend Luis Garcia, Jr. for a top value play in addition to our MLB home run picks focused on James Wood hitting a HR (+260 at bet365).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Having our top three MLB home run picks AND a bonus pick sounds great and all, but let’s get an even juicier payout with a longshot target for today.

You saw that we’re already on a Pittsburgh bat, so let’s continue picking on Lowder and the Reds bullpen. The ballpark is still elite for homers, and getting a switch hitter is nice to be a lefty vs. Lowder and a righty when needed after he gets pulled. It’s still an MLB home run LONGSHOT pick, but it’s one that we love!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

It may be a somewhat lighter slate, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t continue finding more value. Consider going beyond our favorite MLB home run picks for today with the for-fun parlay below.

That wraps things up here, but remember, our FREE newsletter hooks you up with that bonus pick! That way, you’ll have every last one of our best MLB home run picks for today!