They’re finally here - weekend series are set to get underway - and that means one thing: MLB home run picks. Having some Friday night fireworks is also ideal, as tomorrow is the 4th of July! We’ve got a slightly earlier slate as well, with a Wrigley Field first pitch at 4:05 PM ET, and we’ve recently seen how much wind has launched some balls over the fence. So, let’s dive into things to check out if we should make any MLB home run predictions in the Cardinals vs. Cubs NL Central rivalry.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Since we indeed have divisional rivals on deck, like the one in Chicago, Padres vs. Dodgers, and more, you’ll also want to make the most of our MLB expert picks. That said, if you are truly only focused on MLB home run picks, then you simply can’t miss our exclusive MLB home run prop tool! As for our top three targets for today…

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/3: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’re also here to break down the factors that led to us locking in the MLB home run predictions that you see above. We always start with our MLB weather report, leading into today’s starting pitcher matchups. From there, it’s all about how those starters perform against righties and lefties, their HR/FB ratios, ground-ball rates, and more.

Of course, it’s not only the starters that we’ll see - bullpens absolutely have to be factored in. In fact, you’ll see that within our very first breakdown. Along with some underlying hitter metrics and their righty/lefty splits, let’s not waste any more time and fully dive into our best MLB home run picks for today!

Pete Alonso (+319)

Yes, Wrigley Field starts our Friday afternoon baseball slate, and there were about a million homers hit there on Wednesday alone, but we’re going to first begin with another spot that we love - the Great American Ball Park. Along with it being a great stadium for home run picks, we get the trifecta we’ve mentioned before by pairing it with Brady Singer and the Reds bullpen.

While the Orioles' lineup may not get a ton of love, they can absolutely hit some dingers. Believe it or not, they are among the league’s best with a .410 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, and Brady Singer has a 5.56 xERA, 91.3 mph average exit velocity, plus just about every other metric you love to see for dingers like HR/FB ratio.

With all of the above in mind, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Alonso to hit a HR (+319 at Novig). 

James Wood (+310)

We’re going right down I-95 from Baltimore to Washington. In the nation’s capital, it’s set to be 99 degrees and extremely humid, as much of the country is dealing with right now. Not only is that great news for the long ball, but while it may sound silly, we like targeting these guys that are DH-ing or chilling on first base with our MLB home run picks.

Let them be as fresh as possible at the plate, but of course, we still won’t mind if the Nats leadoff man is in the outfield, given how great he’s been this season. Wood went yard prior to Washington’s off day to give him 22 on the season to fuel his league-leading HRR. He’s simply a lefty that Mitch Keller wants no parts of.

Avoiding Paul Skenes for the Pirates will feel nice (for now), so let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with James Wood hitting a HR (+310 at bet365).

Rafael Devers (+300)

We’re going to wrap up at Coors Field rather than Wrigley since we may have some rain issues in Chicago. While it looks like the game will still be played, we’ll avoid the chance of providing you with a pick that doesn’t even have a chance. With Colorado starting Ryan Feltner, we have the Giants on our radar with our best MLB home run picks for today.

They’ve been part of one of those crazy Cubs games where 20+ runs were scored this season, and Willy Adames has cashed for us this season as well. This time, we’re going with the lefty against the Rockies righty. We’ll admit that the San Francisco bats haven’t been the easiest to predict this season, but at a very warm Coors Field, it doesn’t take much.

Expect several dingers in this game, including the addition to our top MLB home run picks of Rafael Devers hitting a HR (+300 at BetMGM).

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As always, we also dive into some true value picks for you, and no, we aren’t referring to the Wal-Mart brand. The addition to our MLB home run picks above provides

We’re going to Yankee Stadium and targeting the home team, enjoying rookie starter Mike Paredes. The Bronx Bombers will be throwing plenty of lefties at him, but for an MLB home run longshot pick, we’re on the bottom of the lineup with a righty! 
 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Speaking of the Yankees, our best MLB home run parlay for today includes another New York hitter in what is an all-AL East play…

Those guys are more than playable as individual picks as well, and of course, you can also just piece together our original best MLB home run picks or even mix and match any of the names above!