The MLB slate going from a colossal 17 games to just a measly five means that there is no better time to make sure that you have the best MLB home run picks. After all, we cashed TWO of them yesterday with Ben Rice and Luis Garcia, Jr. (our newsletter exclusive pick)! Dingers are the perfect way to add both excitement and value to the slate, and despite so few games, it starts nice and early with mostly afternoon action! From Chris Sale in Atlanta to more advantageous targets, let’s get into our top MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Even though there may not be quite as many games to target, we still always go beyond MLB home run picks with our MLB expert picks. In fact, perhaps today is the best day to pair other markets with the longball since the spots are tougher to find. Speaking of finding spots, our exclusive MLB home run prop tool can help you find even more. As for our top MLB home run predictions…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/23: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

With our very own MLB weather report helping us lock in the best MLB home run picks, we have to point out the unfortunate reality that we don’t have some top locations like Coors Field or Sutter Health Park on the menu. Even still, the weather conditions are pivotal, as are starting pitchers on the mound.

We also have the factor of bullpens, and with Kansas City and Minnesota in action today, there are ones worth picking on for sure. As for hitters, there are countless factors as well, ranging from basic slugging percentages to how they perform versus righties/lefties and even against specific pitch types. With some of those aspects in mind, let’s further break down our best MLB home run picks for today!

Drake Baldwin (+422)

We mentioned Chris Sale from the jump, but it’s safe to say that the lefty ace is not a starter that we want to go out of our way to pick on. However, the guy opposite him in that Padres vs. Braves series is a solid option for us. That would be Griffin Canning, who simply can’t get guys to chase, making him great for MLB home run picks.

His 24.7% chase rate ranks in the fifth percentile, leading to something we love even more - a 48.8% hard-hit rate. That ranks in the third percentile, so we could absolutely see multiple Braves hitters go yard this afternoon (or morning for you). It’s lefties that have been far superior vs. Canning with a .537 slugging, and we know Atlanta has several great ones.

That makes this a pick-your-poison situation, but we’ll lock in one of them by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Drake Baldwin hitting a HR (+422 at Novig).

Junior Caminero (+265)

Another one of the earlier matchups today is north of the border, which means the AL East clash of Rays vs. Blue Jays. Tampa lefty Ian Seymour has been able to rack up some K’s with his change-up, but it’s Toronto’s righty that loves throwing the same pitch that’s on our radar. After all, Shane Bieber has been great for MLB home run picks.

While that wasn’t the case last time out, in each of his first four starts after making his debut on June 23, he allowed at least one homer. Although the sample size doesn’t make him a “qualified” starter just yet, his 8.54 xERA and 53.2% hard-hit rate are juicy targets for us. Interestingly enough, righties have a .708 slugging against the fellow righty!

That’s a massive number, but for what it’s worth, lefties also have a .479 slugging against Bieber. Even still, we’re going to grab some value with our best MLB home run picks for today with Junior Caminero hitting a HR (+265 at FanDuel) before he’s officially cooled off. 

Alec Burleson (+505)

The St. Louis Cardinals are heading back home to Busch Stadium after a series in LA at Angel Stadium, and we’ll admit that isn’t the best ballpark transition. However, with Arizona coming into town, we’re still comfortable with this spot against Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt. He’s fantastic for lefties cashing MLB home run picks.

Opposing southpaw hitters have .516 slugging against him, and that’s despite him throwing slower curveballs to them more than he does vs. right-handed pitching. Even without that factor, the Cards first baseman has a 98th percentile xSLG of .539 to pair with his actual slugging vs. righties of .546!

We could rattle off even more metrics like his 48.1% hard-hit rate and more, but it all adds up to adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Alec Burleson hitting a HR (+505 at bet365).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

While ideal spots are more difficult to come by today, there are still some valuable ways to add to the MLB home run picks above. For example, with today’s longshot pick…

As you can see, we’re circling back to the first target we broke down, as we consider the Braves to be the team that is most likely to have multiple guys hit homers. It’s also not every day that you’re going to get a guy with 10 homers at such a massive price tag! So, let’s sit back and enjoy four-digit odds with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

That longshot is a way for a monster potential payout, but there is also another way for one while not needing to trust a guy not known for power. That’s with a for-fun parlay, so here is yet another way to utilize our MLB home run picks…

As you can see, there may only be five games on the slate, but we’ve found so many different ways to attack it! Not only that, but extremely valuable ways to boot! Lock in our best MLB home run picks for today in any way that looks best to you!