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2026 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile

Brandon Pfaadt's 2025 season was a case study in "bad luck" and volatility. While he took the ball every fifth day, making 33 starts and logging 176.2 innings, his surface numbers were ugly, resulting in a 5.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, his underlying metrics told a different story, as he posted a much stronger 4.22 FIP, suggesting he was punished disproportionately by poor sequencing or defense. His control remained elite with a 4.8% walk rate, but his strikeout stuff backed up significantly, dropping to 147 Ks (19.2% K-rate) after fanning 185 batters the year prior. Despite the struggles, Pfaadt solidified his long-term future in Arizona by signing a 5-year, $45 million extension in March 2025, keeping him under contract through 2030.

Entering 2026, Pfaadt is a classic post-hype sleeper and regression candidate, with the discrepancy between his ERA and FIP making him a prime target for a bounce-back season. Projections forecast him to pitch around 172 innings with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, while racking up approximately 153 strikeouts. Locked into the middle of the Diamondbacks' rotation alongside Merrill Kelly, he offers valuable volume and excellent WHIP potential due to his low walk rate. If his ERA normalizes to the low-4.00s as projected, he becomes a valuable roster stabilizer in mixed leagues, though his lowered strikeout ceiling caps his upside.