We have just one more slate to enjoy before the All-Star break, so why not add to it with some MLB home run picks and go back-to-back after Trent Grisham’s dinger yesterday? Don’t worry - we’ll have something for the HR Derby as well, but we still have a “normal” slate to capitalize on. We may not want to target Zack Wheeler vs. Tarik Skubal, which starts the entire Sunday, but there are still great spots for us to break down so that you get the best MLB home run predictions for today! 

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

With this being the final slate for a little while, you’ll want more than just MLB home run picks, which is what our MLB expert picks is here for! From strikeout props, hits+runs+RBI picks to standard game markets, you’ll want to check in with our bet tracker on a daily basis throughout the season.

Another tool worth bookmarking is our exclusive MLB home run prop tool, which pairs perfectly with the MLB home run predictions listed below…

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/12: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Speaking of bookmarking tools, you may as well set up a new folder for our content so that you can also save our MLB weather report, which is where we always start for our MLB home run picks. After that, it’s seeing which starters that we want to target - spoiler, it’s not Wheeler or Skubal.

Considering bullpen performances is also a must, and as for hitters, we love checking out their righty/lefty splits and how they perform against specific pitch types. Along with some other underlying metrics that don’t show up in box scores, you’ll see all sorts of factors while breaking down our best MLB home run picks for today!

Sal Stewart (+330)

Shocking - we’re getting started at the Great American Ball Park. We noted JJ Bleday as an added option last night, so naturally, he was the one that went yard. We also had the misfortune of Tyler Stephenson not catching, so it just wasn’t an ideal set up. What IS ideal, is the Reds getting to face a lefty, which is great for MLB home run picks.

They are a prime K target for right-handed pitching, but they hit southpaws much better, and on top of that, Cubs starter Matthew Boyd is a mediocre one. He had the luxury of facing the Orioles last time out, but allowed two homers in his start prior. He’s been far worse vs. righties this season, hence our target.

After his double dong game last series, it’s time to close this one out by cashing one of our best MLB home run picks for today (Spencer Steer is your secondary option) - we’re leading them off with Sal Stewart to hit HR (+330 at FanDuel).

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+313)

Ok, we won’t make you wait at all for a second GABP pick (at this point, abbreviating the ballpark seems appropriate). We’ve got another lefty on the mound with Cincinnati starting Andrew Abbott. Like Boyd, he is NOT one that scares us, and if you prefer to avoid lefty vs. lefty crimes, you could add to our MLB home run picks with Seiya Suzuki.

He’ll have the luxury of seeing primarily four-seamers, but even with the sweeper mixed in vs. lefties, PCA has simply proven too dominant these days to doubt. It wasn’t long ago that he became the only player with 20+ HRs and 20+ stolen bases this season as he looks ahead to his All-Star appearance for the NL.

He earned that nod in part thanks to a .333/.567/1.026 vs. southpaws last month, so let’s ride one of the hottest first halves of the season with our best MLB home run picks today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+313 at Novig).

Shea Langeliers (+325)

It feels like it’s been forever since we got to target the Triple-A stadium in Sacramento, but even with that not being the case today, we’re still on the A’s centerpiece. Even without the Nick Kurtz thumb issue, we’d be on the catcher with the White Sox starting a lefty in Noah Schultz. He’s been great for MLB home run picks against righties specifically.

Such hitters have a .479 slugging against him compared to just .219 for left-handed hitters. That’s already a nice set up, but it’s still only half the story. Shea has a .327 average vs. southpaws this season to pair with an amazing .614 slugging and 1.007 OPS. Furthermore, he’s in the 85th percentile or better in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate AND bat speed!

Along with his .357 xwOBA, we love adding to our best MLB home run picks for today with Shea Langeliers to hit a HR (+325 at bet365).

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We always take things beyond our top three targets, starting with a longshot pick. The plus-money prices above for our MLB home run predictions are great, but here’s an even bigger one…

We’re going to close out this first half of the season at the nation’s capital, where our Trent Grisham pick cashed last night. For an even longer shot, Jacob Young is on the board with four-figure odds! However, we still see plenty of value with Washington’s right fielder as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Let’s take another approach that can net us a monster potential payout, but this time, we won’t have to rely on an unlikely dinger. While we’ll need all of these to come through, we have some of the top names for MLB home run picks today in our parlay…

With those also being great names outside of a parlay angle, you could just pluck them out as individual picks. Similarly, you could also just piece together our first three targets for a for-fun parlay. There are “normal” baseball games for a little while, so you really don’t want to miss out on today’s best MLB home run picks!