The weekend isn’t quite here, and Thursdays generally mean lighter baseball days, so we’re here to make everything more exciting with your best MLB home run picks. After a longshot winner + Junior Caminero yesterday, let’s cash three straight days! It’s not even the lightest slate given 11 games on the board, but we do have some premier arms to avoid like Dylan Cease and Cristopher Sanchez. At the same time, we get to check out Wrigley Field, Great American Ball Park, and more. As always, we’ll break down everything so that you end up with the absolute best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

While the aforementioned premier arms and others like Bryce Miller may be ones to avoid in terms of MLB home run picks, that doesn’t mean that we can’t enjoy them at all, so check out our MLB expert picks for more market coverage. That means more hitter props, K props, basic game markets, and more. As for more MLB home run predictions, consider even more targets than the ones below with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 8/6: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

It’s not just about avoiding aces when it comes to making the best MLB home run picks; in fact, we start elsewhere - with our very own MLB weather report! After that is when we transition to breaking down starters in terms of slugging and ISO allowed, pitch mix, and more. Of course, we also have to consider relief units.

It’s then time to see how hitters match up against those pitch mixes, basic righty/lefty splits, and their expected numbers like slugging and other key metrics like hard-hit rates. Let’s get even more into those factors by fully breaking down our best MLB home run picks for today!

Elly De La Cruz (+295)

Despite the slate not featuring all the premier spots with the Colorado Rockies traveling to St. Louis today, we still have the Great American Ball Park on the menu. Better yet, the A’s are in town, and their bullpen just overtook the Kansas City Royals for the league’s worst ERA! That’s great news for our MLB home run picks, and it’s not the only part.

Before we even get to their relief staff, we have Mason Barnett on the mound starting for the A’s. Better yet, he was part of that relief staff before getting his first start the other night, allowing three runs. It’s lefties that have shelled him to the tune of a .518 slugging, and as a switch hitter, Elly can make sure he has a good matchup against the ‘pen later in the game as well.

He’s closing in on 20 dingers for the year, so let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Elly De La Cruz hitting a HR (+295 at bet365).

Bryce Harper (+305)

The Washington Nationals traded Curtis Mead away to the Boston Red Sox for Connelly Early, but with the lefty still on the IL, their starting pitcher situation for today was “undecided” for quite some time (now Miles Mikolas). That alone is bad news for Nats fans, and their historically bad bullpen makes things even worse - well, better when it comes to MLB home run picks!

They’re continuing their series against the Philadelphia Phillies, and with Cristopher Sanchez starting for them, we want to focus on their lineup rather than CJ Abrams and company. The usual suspects are the ones that always top the options for Philly, so let’s enjoy the much better odds for the guy who hasn’t been slumping since the HR Derby.

That means not taking nearly +100 odds and adding to our MLB home run picks with Bryce Harper hitting a HR (+305 at BetMGM).

Bobby Witt, Jr. (+313)

To round out our top three, we’re going to focus on one of the later matchups, which is the AL Central rivalry of Twins vs. Royals. Byron Buxton is still on the IL, but we recently saw the return of Bobby Witt, Jr. to help prove KC as a great hitter’s location. Of course, that will be by cashing one of our best MLB home run picks today.

We’re going to see Bailey Ober on the mound tonight for Minnesota, and while he loves throwing off-speed stuff, Witt loves hitting them just as much - he has a .385 average against righty change-ups this season. It’s not a huge sample size, but he’s just a guy we trust given his 94th percentile expected slugging and 95th percentile average exit velocity.

Along with his 94th percentile hard-hit rate, let’s add to our top MLB home run picks today with Bobby Witt, Jr. hitting a HR (+313 at Novig).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

We’ve hit our longshot multiple times in less than a handful of days, and with each one covering over a pick a day, here’s how we’re adding to the best MLB home run picks above.

We mentioned the Nats historically bad bullpen, as they’ve allowed 78 homers this year, and Mikolas is already one of the worst starters. So, why not just go back to Philly for our monster payout? If you consider +500s an MLB home run longshot pick, go with Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott, but we’re going big…again!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Another way to have multiple picks covered is by hitting a for-fun parlay! So, for yet another way to make the most of our top MLB home run picks, here are the guys we’re piecing together on the same slip…

Even if you just want to stick with single picks or even pluck just one name out of that trio, you simply can’t go wrong. Target our best MLB home run picks for today however you are comfortable and enjoy the all-day slate on the diamond!