Thursdays are generally small slates during the MLB season, especially with NFL Thursday Night Football games now being featured; however, we still have a solid 12-game slate to enjoy with MLB home run picks today! Better yet, nearly half of them are in the afternoon window, so there is action leading up to TNF. Therefore, it’s a no-brainer to enjoy some plus-money plays before Week 3 kicks off. We’ve done the digging for you to ensure that you’ve got the absolute best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Not only do we have afternoon action, but the entire slate also kicks off with Paul Skenes taking the mound. With great matchups leading up to the SoCal showdown of Padres vs. Dodgers to close out the slate, you can go beyond MLB home run picks with our MLB expert picks. That said, for more longball options, just use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/24: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

So, why did those guys make the cut for our MLB home run predictions? For starters, we check in with our MLB weather report, especially having seen postponements this week. We want to avoid giving you picks that may not even see the diamond, but we do want to give you picks where the starting pitchers are prime for the taking.

We determine those by analyzing righty/lefty splits, slugging and ISO allowed, barrel and hard-hit rates allowed, and so much more. Then, we go from the mound to the plate and do the same for hitters, adding in their launch angles. Combine all that with bullpen analysis, and here is why the names above made the cut for our best MLB home run picks today!

Corbin Carroll (+332)

Not only is this still one of the more loaded “small” slates, but it also still features Coors Field! That’s always great news for homers, and with the Arizona Diamondbacks starting Eduardo Rodriguez, taking last night’s target of Hunter Goodman is a very strong option. That said, we’re still going to switch things up with our MLB home run picks for you.

We’re also not doing so just to avoid a repeat pick; it’s also because we get to exploit Tanner Gordon and the Colorado Rockies bullpen. The Rockies righty starter has allowed plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so there’s really no going wrong between lefty Corbin Carroll and switch hitter Ketel Marte.

While we often harp on Carroll’s lefty vs. lefty prowess, he also has a .223 ISO vs. righties! So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Corbin Carroll hitting a HR (+332 at DraftKings). 

Isaac Paredes (+354)

Along with Coors Field remaining on the menu for today, so too does Sutter Health Park! Again, that is great news for homers, but the switch-up is the team that is visiting. Rather than Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels, it’s now Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros. So, he’s the obvious choice when it comes to MLB home run picks today.

However, that’s also why we see some extremely short odds for the lefty power hitter. We can provide you with better value since just about anyone can homer at this Triple-A ballpark and against this A’s bullpen. With starter Mason Barnett being a righty, we’d love to go with Jeremy Pena here, but he may be held out of the lineup again.

Take Yordan if you’re ok with such short odds, but we’re going to add to our top MLB home run picks today with Isaac Paredes hitting a HR (22%, so +354, at Novig). 

Jac Caglianone (+450)

Another spot we love, along with those clear and obvious hitter-friendly parks featured earlier in the slate, is Kauffman Stadium. Although Miguel Vargas didn’t come through for us in the series opener here, we did see 25 runs scored! So, even while the weather in KC cools down, it continues to be a solid spot for MLB home run picks.

That’s especially true since it will always feature the Kansas City Royals bullpen, which is awful. Along with the Chicago White Sox starting rookie David Sandlin (just five career starts), both lineups in this matchup should hit multiple homers. As tempting as it is to just have an entire top three here, we’re going to lock in a lefty vs. Sandlin’s .266 ISO allowed to southpaws.

It is a small sample size for the rookie, but given the KC slugger’s .241 expected ISO vs. righties, we love rounding out our best MLB home run picks for today with Jac Caglianone hitting a HR (+450 at bet365). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

As if a top three MLB home run picks with great plus-money odds and a FREE bonus pick weren’t enough, we always love taking things a step further; here’s today’s top longshot option…

It’s only fitting to have a longshot at the Triple-A ballpark, but of course, there is never a bad time to enjoy Coors Field as well. Regardless, we’re going to go with a lefty that can make it a double-digit homer season before it’s all said and done with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today. 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

To make the action on the diamond leading up to and during Thursday Night Football even more thrilling, how about a for-fun parlay? Here are the MLB home run picks that we’re piecing together for exactly that…

Just some clear pivots from our top three, but if there was one where more swapping could be done, it would be Jensen to either Miguel Vargas or Munetaka Murakami. However you decide to use our MLB home run picks, enjoy the extra action alongside Thursday Night Football!