It’s about that time to make the most of a day on the diamond before the first full NFL Sunday slate, and there is no better way to do so than with the best MLB home run picks! We’ve got plenty of afternoon action to enjoy as well, which features Paul Skenes, and the slate wraps up at the great target of Sutter Health Park. Of course, we’ll still break down everything in between so that you are able to lock in the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

If you want to target some K props with the aforementioned Skenes, another starter or just check out markets beyond MLB home run picks in general, no problem - just check out our MLB expert picks! After all, we’re here to cover everything for you, which includes more than the MLB entirely! Just swap sports within that tool, and speaking of tools, if you just want more MLB home run predictions, then utilize our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/12: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Speaking of tools, our very own MLB weather report is where we start to make sure that you’re getting the best MLB home run picks each and every day. That way, we know the best locations to start breaking down starters like Skenes and others. Of course, locations + starters don’t HAVE to align, it’s just nice when they do.

It’s also nice when hitters align for our MLB home run picks in terms of matching with starters’ righty/lefty splits and what they allow, such as barrel rates, hard-hit rates, ISO for power and more. It would make things a bit easier if we knew that those pitchers would be on the mound the entire game, but we have bullpens to consider as well. So, let us break down why the three names above made the cut for our top MLB home run picks today!

Elly De La Cruz (+550)

We just saw the Cincinnati Reds get absolutely boat-raced by the Milwaukee Brewers (20-0) last night, and now they MAY have Kyle Harrison on the mound. So, how on Earth are we going to lead things off with the Cinci lineup? Well, it’s in large part because Elly De La Cruz has been cashing MLB home run picks against anyone.

That’s no exaggeration - the Reds superstar switch hitter homered in five straight games before last night, which began against the Brewers, and better yet, included Kyle Harrison! That stretch also ended with homers in back-to-back games vs. Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto! With Kyle Harrison actually allowing a .225 ISO to righties and Elly’s .657 slugging vs. lefties, we’re leading off our MLB home run picks with Elly De La Cruz hitting a HR (+550 at bet365). 

Yordan Alvarez (+354)

This is another big name in the baseball world, but when we get to enjoy a chalk pick in the +300’s, we’re not going to pass it up. Admittedly, we like the guy on the mound opposite Yordan - Ian Seymour - but this is arguably the best hitter on the planet. Not only that, but we also love including him in our best MLB home run picks for today with the lefty vs. lefty matchup.

Even if you don’t think Yordan is the best hitter in baseball and was never going to get the Triple Crown, his prowess of hitting fellow lefties simply cannot be argued. His .513 slugging against southpaws this year is great and all, but over his CAREER, he’s a .308 hitter with a .569 slugging and .951 ISO against lefties.

Along with a .281 expected ISO vs. fellow lefties this season, we love adding to our top MLB home run picks today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (22%, so +354, at Novig). 

Corey Seager (+450)

Seeing the Seattle Mariners in Sutter Health Park still piques our interest, but we’re going to round things out in the desert with the Texas Rangers against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They weren’t able to fully exploit Merrill Kelly last night, but we still expect some MLB home run picks to cash against Brandon Pfaadt.

It’s not the worst we’ve ever seen, but his .192 ISO allowed to lefties is more than enough to have us on the two-time World Series MVP. When he’s healthy, he smashes, and against right-handed pitching this year, he has a .240 expected ISO. Similar to Elly, he recently had a stretch of three straight games homering, two of which came in pitcher-friendly Seattle!

So, let’s ride his 95th-percentile barrel rate and add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Corey Seager hitting a HR (+450 at bet365). 

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Our top three MLB home run picks and FREE bonus pick will set you up for an awesome Saturday, but why not go above and beyond? Let’s do just that with today’s longshot option…

Originally, Gavin Williams was supposed to toe the rubber for the Cleveland Guardians, but now, it’s Daniel Espino. The rookie reliever is getting his first big-league start and makes this a bullpen game, so we love targeting the Minnesota Twins with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today!

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

When it comes to going above and beyond, why not a for-fun parlay? Here are three MLB home run picks to piece together for the biggest potential payout yet…

We still love the spot for the Seattle Mariners in Sutter Health Park, Caminero can crush opposite Yordan in Astros vs. Rays and PCA is PCA. So, let’s have a day and watch these MLB home run picks play out!