Sunday baseball hits different. The weekend comes to a close with a full day of action that runs from early afternoon all the way through Sunday Night Baseball, giving us more windows to find value than almost any other day on the calendar. Our best MLB home run picks for today lean into that - we've scoured the full slate from the early games to the SNB nightcap to build the best MLB home run predictions for today.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Sunday's slate is the widest of the week and our MLB home run picks have something worth targeting from first pitch through the final out. Check our MLB expert picks for additional markets beyond the long ball today. Of course, this article is all about the plus-money. Here are the three names leading our top MLB home run picks for today:

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/17: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Sunday afternoon games carry some of the best wind and weather conditions of the week for home run hunting - warm temperatures, afternoon sun and afternoon breezes at several parks can turn warning-track flies into souvenirs. 

Our MLB weather report is the first stop before any MLB home run picks are locked in today. We're pairing that with each pitcher's HR/FB rate, batter barrel data and recent power trends to make sure our best MLB home run picks for today are built on genuine edge rather than gut feel.

Pete Alonso (+343)

Let’s lead things off with an AL vs. NL East battle with two teams that struggle on the mound to say the least. It was the Washington Nationals who allowed 15 runs heading into the series, and it was the Baltimore Orioles that allowed 13 yesterday. That means several opportunities for locking in MLB home run picks today.

Adley Rutschman has a solid opportunity to break out of his slump with Washington’s Miles Mikolas and the Nats awful bullpen today, but in case they give him Sunday off, we won’t give out the catcher. Instead, we’ll start with the new O’s member this year of the Polar Bear. After all, Miles Mikolas has the #1 worst home run to fly ball ratio!

It took the former New York Mets slugger some time to get his footing in Baltimore, but he’s settled in. So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Alonso to hit a HR (+343 at Novig Sportsbook).

Mike Trout (+440)

There has been just one other time that we’ve targeted one of the best players in baseball for a homer given the value that his odds generally provide, and this is another spot where they are simply too valuable to pass up. Seeing Mike Trout in the 400’s is as good as it gets, and facing Roki Sasaki, he has to be part of our top MLB home run picks.

Frankly, the matchup should make his odds shorter, not longer. Roki Sasaki may be part of the Japanese pitching arsenal for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he is NOT Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His home run to fly ball ratio rivals that of the aforementioned Miles Mikolas, so not good company.

He’s allowed a 1+ homer in EVERY start since his first one this season, and we all know that the Los Angeles Angels superstar speaks for himself. So, let’s add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Mike Trout to hit a HR (+440 at bet365 Sportsbook).

Isaac Paredes (+525)

We saw rockets getting launched in Houston last night, but not against their awful bullpen - all four of the Astros runs last night came on solo shots vs. Jacob deGrom. So, while you may see Nathan Eovaldi starting for the Texas Rangers, it’s clear that dingers are still in play. So, we’ve got a different Houston hitter as part of our top MLB home run picks today.

Eovaldi is coming off his best start of the season, but it wasn’t long ago when he allowed FOUR homers to the Athletics, and that was in the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Field. Therefore, it’s not a shock that the former Boston Red Sox starter also has a high home run to fly ball ratio.

The obvious pick here is Yordan Alvarez, but since our longshot pick is coming up, this is the perfect transition to it given the odds. Even without that, Paredes has been fantastic at avoiding swings and misses. It’s borderline longshot territory, but we’ll continue our best MLB home run picks for today with Isaac Paredes to hit a HR (+525 at BetMGM Sportsbook).

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Sunday is the best day of the week to swing for the fences on a longshot, and today's play comes with a matchup we genuinely love at a number that makes it well worth the risk:

A completely new series that we haven’t touched on yet is Reds vs. Guardians. It may not be in the hitter-friendly Cincinnati ballpark, but Reds starter Brady Singer presents great opportunities for MLB home run picks.

His home run to fly ball ratio is even worse than the aforementioned Roki Sasaki and Cleveland can take advantage. Of course, we’ll still need some things (maybe a nice gust of wind) to go our way for this huge underdog, but why not a leadoff homer? It’s possible with our best MLB home run longshot pick for today on Steven Kwan!

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our Sunday MLB home run predictions together for an easier approach or check out some new names paired with one of our favorites below for today's best MLB home run parlay:

Three featured MLB home run picks, the longshot play and the juiciest payout yet. Enjoy our best MLB home run picks for today and check back as lineups are confirmed across the full Sunday slate!