Tyler Stephenson didn’t make us wait at all to start another streak with a first-inning homer to cash our +470 pick! To make it back-to-back days cashing MLB home run picks, our options are usually far more limited on Mondays compared to the weekend. Well, the league has done us a solid by giving us not only a solid slate, but one that is completely full with 15 games! While there are no afternoon clashes, we’ll gladly take 30 teams to break down. We’ve done so to make sure that you have the absolute best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with the top MLB home run picks today, you can enjoy even more skin in the game with our MLB expert picks. As you’ll see with our live records, it’s a profitable way to enjoy a loaded Monday MLB slate. Speaking of tools, we’ve got you covered across the board. That means for even more top MLB home run predictions courtesy of our exclusive MLB home run prop tool.

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 7/20: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Yes, you’ve already seen a ton of tools, but one of our most beneficial (and popular) is our MLB weather report. That makes it a must-bookmark, especially for MLB home run picks. You’ll see that we almost always refer to weather conditions, which come first, along with starting pitchers.

After also checking out how bullpens are looking, we also take a deep dive into hitter metrics. That means the basics like slugging percentages, plus the advanced aspects that don’t show up in box scores, like their hard-hit rates. It all plays a part in making the best MLB home run picks, and you’ll see plenty of other factors below as well!

Kerry Carpenter (+275)

Well, tonight features Wrigley Field with double-digit winds blowing out. Need we say more? Actually, we do. The Cubs are also featuring the return of Jameson Taillon. He’s been out since his June 7th injury, and it’s safe to say that he can allow some dingers. Across his 10 starts in April and May, he allowed 19 MLB home run picks to cash!

Again, that’s NINETEEN homers allowed in a 10-start span, and now he’s dealing with great hitting conditions and a Tigers lineup that can absolutely go yard in bunches. It’s why their lines are coming down in real time as this is being written. It’s lefties that have 12 homers against him, so our target lines up with that.

Fellow lefties Kevin McGonigle and Riley Greene hit bombs yesterday, so let’s make it a trifecta by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Kerry Carpenter to hit a HR (+275 at Caesars). 

Seiya Suzuki (+301)

Look, we know that it may not feel as exciting staying in the same game, but again, it’s Windy Wrigley, and we’re here to keep giving out winners. With that in mind, Dillon Dingler is also looking great, but we’ll at least swap teams for you. Therefore, we’re now picking on Jack Flaherty to cash some MLB home run picks.

It wasn’t long ago that we took the under on one of his K props, as he’s gotten a bit lucky this season. Regardless, we won’t call him the worst starter, but he does allow one of the highest hard-hit rates at 47.3% and average exit velocities at 90.7 mph. Interestingly enough, we’ve also seen righties with a higher slugging against Flaherty this season.

Therefore, we’re going to add to our best MLB home run picks for today with Seiya Suzuki hitting a HR (+301 at Novig).

Curtis Mead (+375)

We just focused on windy Wrigley in a big way, so how could we not go with Coors Field to round out the top three? Not only does the ballpark speak for itself, but we also get to enjoy Kyle Freeland on the mound starting for the Rockies. He’s amazing for helping us cash MLB home run picks with his 90.9 average exit velocity and other sub-10th percentile metrics.

Both sides of the plate can smash him, but there’s a slight lean towards righties with their monster .587 slugging (lefties still have a .473 slg). So, we’ll never fault you for rolling with James Wood, and frankly, after CJ Abrams went yard yesterday, you know a leadoff jack is coming. Still, let’s give some love to an under-the-radar righty hitting behind him.

That would be Curtis Mead, who is the guy in the Nats lineup that not many are talking about. Well, we’re going to make him part of our best MLB home run picks for today - let’s lock in Curtis Mead to hit a HR (+375 at BetMGM).

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up below to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

From our top three targets to an exclusive bonus pick, you’ve already got some great spots, but there is still more. How about the biggest potential payout (so far)? Here’s our favorite way to go beyond the MLB home run picks above.

We’re swapping to a different game than the ones above by checking out Pirates vs. Yankees. New York just went with a bullpen game for Sunday Night Baseball to round out their doubleheader, so even if this isn’t a lefty-on-lefty crime vs. Ryan Weathers, we could cash this MLB home run longshot pick late.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

We said “so far” above, and that's because we still have an even bigger potential payout for you to enjoy. That’s with a for-fun parlay to add to our top MLB home run predictions today.

Feel free to just use one of those names to replace one of our top three targets, or perhaps you could just make your own parlay using the first names that we broke down for you. No matter which approach looks best for you, start your week with the best MLB home run picks!