It’s finally here! No, not the start of the NHL season - ok, well, that’s happening too - but it’s also the start of the 2026 MLB playoffs! We couldn’t ask for more on a night after an NFL slate ends; well, except for our best MLB home run picks for today, especially since we ended the regular season hitting our featured video target of Jo Adell (and Corey Seager)! We’re going to keep bringing them to you on days when they seem valuable, and for this opening night of the postseason, there was no way that we were going to pass up the excitement. Even if we’ll see top arms on the mound, we’ve still found spots worthy of the best MLB home run predictions for today.

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

As if the 2026 MLB playoffs starting wasn’t exciting enough, the very first matchup that we knew would be happening today is the classic Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry! That means more than just MLB home run picks will be wanted, so check in with our MLB expert picks. You can also swap through different sports, and getting early NFL lines is a must. That said, if you only care about MLB home run predictions right now, just use our exclusive MLB home run prop tool!

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/29: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

What doesn’t change from the regular season to the playoffs are the factors we consider for MLB home run picks. Pressure is one that could be added, but we still start with our MLB weather report. Mother Nature doesn’t care if the games matter more or not, and what the playoffs also bring is more commitment to the best pitchers possible taking the mound.

That may deter you from making MLB home run predictions, but even the best of the best aren’t immune to allowing dingers. In fact, some guys throw so much heat that they can allow some serious exit velocities. Along with barrel rates, hard-hit rates, expected ISO, and more, we’ll break it all down for both the pitchers and hitters.

While the playoffs will provide mostly stronger bullpens, we still need to consider those units for our best MLB home run picks today.

Yordan Alvarez (+387)

Based on the Wild Card matchups, we fully expected to lead things off with White Sox vs. Astros. That’s because when we know each team will have their aces on the mound, this one presents the matchup that we like best. We certainly aren’t going to call it ideal for MLB home run picks, but it’s still one that provides value.

Speaking of value, keep in mind that Yordan’s HR odds have been down in the +100s at times this season, so we love seeing this one start with a three. Even though the Triple Crown dream seemed to die earlier than it should have, he’s still arguably the best hitter in baseball with a handful of metrics in the 99th and 100th percentile.

Perhaps most importantly, the White Sox are starting Hagen Smith - a rookie reliever! It’s time to see that historic lefty vs. lefty prowess by leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Yordan Alvarez hitting a HR (20.5%, so +387, at Novig). 

Munetaka Murakami (+387)

We know that for many, tonight is all about the classic Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry. Both teams have stadiums that are quite friendly for dingers, but with Payton Tolle vs. Cam Schlittler leading off the series, we’re going to stick with White Sox vs. Astros, just like we expected. It’s simply the most likely matchup for multiple MLB home run picks to cash.

That includes multiple for both teams, as Houston is countering the aforementioned Hagen Smith with AJ Blubaugh. That makes this a bullpen vs. bullpen game, so this should be the most electric game of the quad stack. Blubaugh has historically allowed more power to lefties, and wouldn’t you know it - Chicago has a lefty with a ton of power.

Better yet, the rookie has a ton of power against righties specifically, with a whopping .302 ISO! So, we’ve got a pair of southpaws (about to be a trio) for our top MLB home run picks today by adding Munetaka Murakami hitting a HR (+20.5%, so +387, at Novig). 

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+360)

How could we not? Just like there was no way that we would omit such great odds for Yordan, we’re not going to omit the soon-to-be NL MVP. We’re even more excited for this Cubs vs. Padres series to shift to Wrigley Field (hopefully with out-blowing winds), but even still, we all know that PCA is matchup-proof when it comes to cashing MLB home run picks.

He’ll have to overcome both Petco Park in San Diego and starter Michael King, but if anyone can, it’s the guy who hit 45 homers this year. That was tied for the most in baseball, and he’s going to need to keep showing off against a guy who is known as more of a ground-ball pitcher. With a ridiculous .322 ISO vs. righties, we’re trusting the bat over the pitcher and rounding out our best MLB home run picks for today with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting a HR (+360 at FanDuel). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Now’s the time of year for unsung heroes to be made, which can be done by guys helping us cash more MLB home run picks with our longshot play…

We know that so much focus on one series may not be the most “fun” approach, but we go where the value takes us. We already have a White Sox lefty going yard, and now we have another one but for about triple the payout! The young southpaw made the cut for our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Fans can also feel like heroes during this Wild Card Round by hitting a for-fun parlay! So, here are the MLB home run picks we’re piecing together for this first slate of postseason action…

You already knew what was coming - clear pivots from our top three! If those are the top spots, then it only makes sense. Let’s enjoy the aces in the other matchups while cashing our best MLB home run picks for today!