Propelled by a strong spring, and prospect pedigree, Pete Alonso not only dropped the “r” from his first name, but moved up draft boards this preseason. With a litany of candidates for the Behind the Breakout series, Alonso won by a landslide in the Fantasy Alarm readers poll, so it’s time to see how he’s accomplished his record breaking season along with how sustainable his success will be.
As of this writing, Alonso’s already set the Mets franchise record for home runs in a rookie season with 27. It only took Alonso 77 games to set it compared to 133 for Darryl Strawberry to hit 26 in 1983. Of course, Strawberry did not benefit from a juiced baseball, but he also did not face bullpens full of relievers hitting 95 MPH-plus on radar guns. With an eye towards the future, Mark McGwire set the rookie home run record with 33 home runs prior to the All-Star break in 1987 with Aaron Judge next in line hitting 30 in 2017.
Alonso leads all major league rookies with his 27 home runs but also in the following categories:
RBI with 61
Extra-base hits with 46
On-base percentage (.373)
Slugging percentage (.642)
Total Bases with 181
Runs with 51
Hits with 79
Walks with 33
Through 78 games, Alonso’s slashing .280/.373/.642 with a 10.1 walk percentage and 25.7 strikeout rate which align closely with his discipline metrics in Triple-A last year. Imagine how many home runs he could have launched if Las Vegas uses this year’s baseballs? But, staying with this season, Alonso ranks third in the majors with an eye popping .362 isolated power trailing only Christian Yelich (.402) and Hunter Renfroe (.366). Armed with a 32.9 home run per fly ball percentage and 46.5 hard hit rate, Alonso’s power would be for real in any environment.
According to the Statcast leaderboards, Alonso ranks second in barrels this year with 40, one behind the leader Mike Trout with the same amount of Batted Ball Events (200). Alonso’s also 13th in average line drive and fly ball exit velocity at 97.7 MPH. After a strong start, and in season adjustments, note Alonso’s rolling weighted on-base average chart:
His most recent spike reflects him hitting safely in 11 of his last 13 games going 19-for-46 (.413) with 14 runs, five doubles, six home runs, 15 RBI and 12 walks. He’s been an on-base machine for the Mets hitting second in the lineup. Before delving into his other charts, here’s his projections from the preseason:
It’s tough to project a rookie and none of these systems could account for the new baseballs or the decline in pitching this season. However, questions about Alonso’s playing time lingered with many nervous the Mets front office would limit his at-bats early on. He’s already surpassed the home runs and could reach the RBI totals by the start of August. So, yes, Alonso’s in the midst of his breakout season.
How he finishes will depend on staying ahead of how pitcher’s will try to get him out. Knowing his statistics this year, Alonso owns a .278 expected batting average and .583 expected slugging on Statcast. Not far off from his actual numbers which means Alonso could carry this start throughout the season. Here’s a look at his zone profiles on Statcast to reinforce these numbers:
Knowing this, here’s his spray chart courtesy of Statcast and although Alonso pulls the ball more than 40 percent of the time, his power does not depend on pulling the ball:
Which leads to what will Alonso do the rest of the season? According to Steamer, Alonso could appear in 73 more games with 283 at-bats, 46 runs, 20 home runs, 49 RBI, a stolen base and a .252/.336/.519 slash line. THE BAT takes a more aggressive read projecting 74 more games with 274 at-bats, 48 runs, 22 home runs, 53 RBI, a steal and a .263/.345/.563 slash.
Even if Alonso achieved his Steamer numbers until the end of the season, this would translate to 47 home runs and 109 RBI. Currently, Alonso’s pacing towards 105 runs, 55 home runs and 125 RBI if he appears in 160 games.
How Pete Alonso will be ranked and valued in draft’s next year will rely on how he finishes this one. But, with the power spike in baseball and playing a premium position like first base, Alonso could rise to late second round or early third round average draft position based on how he’s projected to finish this year. Those speculating on his power after the 10th round this preseason will not see the same value on him going forward.
Not all breakouts occur within the same frame of reference. Alonso’s made the most of his opportunity and fueled his in season breakout by punishing baseballs. If his discipline and contact rates improve, 50 home runs could happen as early as this season. Time to enjoy the ride and figure out how the Mets kept him and Jeff McNeil in the minors as long as they did last year.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
Steamerprojections.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty