2021 MLB Draft Guide: COVID Rebound Candidates

Ah, 2020. We had a global pandemic.  We had lockdowns.  We had Murder Hornets.  

And, mercifully, we also had a Major League Baseball season. I don’t know about you, but even with no fans in the stands, just hearing the crack of the bat on my TV brought the hope that one day we would all be able to gather and enjoy friends, music, sports, and maybe even - The Wave (OK… maybe not The Wave) again soon. 

With the 2021 season just around the corner, fantasy baseball managers now face quite a few questions.  How do we value the shortened 60-game season?  It’s just over a third of a “full” season, but do we weigh it as such? How much do we buy into 60-game breakouts or slumps?   Take this example:

In 2019, José Ramírez had a 56-game stretch where he batted .213 with four home runs, 20 runs, and 17 RBI.

In 2020, in 58 games played, he was the runner-up for the AL MVP.  This begs the question: how much should we react to a 60-game sample size?  I mean, let’s face it: 2020 was weird.  

Oh, and did I mention José Ramírez ended the 2019 season mentioned above with 23 home runs, 68 runs, and 83 RBI?  I think you can guess where I am going with this.

Here are seven players I believe are poised to “bounce back” in 2021.   To get a baseline of at least 100 “consecutive” games played, I also include with each player their second half of 2019 stats averaged with their games played in 2020.

Yoán Moncada , 3B - Chicago White Sox

Moncada batted .225 with six home runs, 24 RBI, and ZERO stolen bases in 231 plate appearances in 2020.  Not exactly what managers hoped for when they went into their drafts. However, though Moncada played the entire season, it seems he never fully recovered from the longer-lasting side effects of COVID-19, which he had contracted in July.  Moncada reported lingering muscle soreness and fatigue, which would explain quite a lot of the regression we saw, especially the reduced exit velocity and zero stolen base attempts.  The good news? His eye improved in 2020, and so did his statistically scouted speed. Coming off a strong 2019 campaign where he batted .317 with 27 home runs, 88 runs, 84 RBI, and ten extra bags, I think we have to give Moncada a pass. He’s currently falling to the eighth round in early NFBC drafts. I’ll be taking the value on this young third baseman with power/speed potential hitting in what should be one of the most potent and competitive lineups in the game.

Austin Meadows , OF - Tampa Bay Rays

His 2020 debut was late due to a COVID-19 diagnosis, and quite simply, it looks like he fell off a cliff after his spectacular 2019 campaign. In 152 plate appearances, Meadows batted a measly .205 with four home runs, 19 runs, 13 RBI, and two stolen bases.  It was clear Meadows never felt right, nor did he have the time to really get into shape before rejoining the big club, which also likely contributed to the strained oblique that frequently limited him in September.   Meadows is young, plays on a competitive team, and has fallen to the end of the seventh round in NFBC drafts.  Some have raised concerns he will platoon, but I don’t see the Rays limiting a healthy Meadows and that power/speed combo if he gets rolling.  Can he return to 2019 numbers -33 homers, 83 runs, 89 RBI, and 12 extra bags?  Survey says: At this price, I’ll gamble on it.   

Jack Flaherty , SP - St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at the numbers from 2020, Jack Flaherty ’s 4.91 ERA and 4-3 record don’t look like the stuff of an ace, but if we break it down further, we find that inflated ERA was due mostly to one huge blowup vs. MIL mid -September. Flaherty didn’t show his best stuff in the shortened season, but his bad games alternated with excellent ones, and I’m willing to chalk this up to a shortened summer camp. The good news? Even with the inflated ERA, Flaherty induced a whiff rate in the 88^th percentile of the league and a strikeout rate in the 76^th percentile of the league – striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings in 2020.  Flaherty has had no known health issues, and he pitches in what is expected to be a weaker NL Central division. He’ll see lots of matchups with the Pirates, Brewers, and the Cubs. Given the longer season and a full Spring Training, I expect Flaherty to return to a 3.50 ERA and 200+ strikeouts. 

Christian Yelich , OF - Milwaukee Brewers

Ouch. This one hurt. Likely one of the top three picks in your draft last year, this slump was costly. But, here’s why I am buying back in for 2021: though Yelich posted a career-low average (.205) and OBP (.356), he also posted career highs for walk rate and exit velocity. His walk rate was in the 98^th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 98^th percentile, and his exit velocity was in the 99^th percentile of the league. It’s tough to recover from a 1-27 start, but in a 162-game season, it would look like more of a blip than a blow. Yelich is a career .296 hitter and, after all, even with the slow start last year, he still delivered 12 home runs and four stolen bases for his fantasy baseball managers. Yelich plays in a hitter-friendly home park in a weaker division. He’s currently going at the end of the first round in most NFBC drafts. I’m more than happy to take another chance on his power/speed combo for 2021.

Francisco Lindor , SS - New York Mets

Lindor put up decent numbers in 2020, though it was not what fantasy baseball managers had hoped for in a first-round pick. The lefty’s .258 Batting Average, eight home runs, 30 runs, 27 RBI, and six stolen bases may have been affected by something many haven’t considered: The Cleveland Indians’ clubhouse. It was fractured, to say the least, and I cannot imagine that encouraged anyone to play at their best. Let’s also not forget that Lindor was constantly being talked about as a player on Cleveland’s trade block. Well, now Lindor is taking a Greyhound on the Hudson River line to a club that very much wants his skill and positive clubhouse vibe.    Lindor is entering his age 27 season, the year often expected to be an MLB player’s best, and he enters it hitting in a much more competitive lineup with a front office on a mission to win. I expect Lindor, a three-time Top Ten MVP candidate, to return to form and do it with his trademark smile as the new face of the Mets Franchise. Expect 30 home tuns and 20 stolen bases. This superstar will thrive in Queens.

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF - Boston Red Sox

Beginning in 2016, power-hitter J.D. Martinez hit for .300+ four seasons in a row. In both 2017 and 2018, he hit 40+ bombs and then followed up with a 36-bomb season in 2019. It’s unclear precisely what happened in 2020. His exit velocity was down, but his walk rate and strikeout rate weren’t off from his five-year range. I am chalking this up to small sample size and putting him on my buy-low candidate list at his current NFBC average draft position. Now, I understand when and why fantasy baseball managers don’t like to draft a DH. Depending on your league-settings, it can handcuff you in a lot of ways; but, when that DH is either Nelson Cruz or J.D. Martinez, it’s a move worth making. We expect Martinez to be the everyday DH for Boston in 2021, and he should get enough starts in the outfield to qualify more broadly in most leagues.

Gleyber Torres SS/2B - New York Yankees

Gleyber Torres had a massive breakout in 2019, batting .278 with 38 home runs during the regular season and posting a monster 1.155 OPS in the postseason. No huge surprise considering his pedigree. Let’s not forget, Torres was the jewel in the deal the Cubs made to rent Aroldis Chapman to win a World Series. Let’s also not forget the Yankees have made it to the postseason every year since, but I digress. Gleyber Torres had a down 2020. Why? He did deal with a few injuries, including quad, hamstring, and being hit in the elbow early in the season. In December, Brian Cashman was quoted as saying Torres didn’t show up to summer camp in good shape and that it took him about 40-45 games of the regular season to catch up.  Assuming Torres doesn’t spend his entire offseason binging Chipotle and playing PS5, I believe we can expect Torres to return to stud status. His 2020 postseason numbers (.434 BA with two home runs, five runs, and five RBI) indeed argue he has plenty of production in the tank. And the cherry on top? Gleyber improved on one thing in 2020, and it is perhaps the most crucial thing: plate discipline. Torres logged a career-high 14-percent walk rate while also logging a career-low 17.5-percent strikeout rate.

If you want to take advantage of other managers in your draft who only are looking at last season’s stat lines and not the whole picture, these seven players are a great place to start. A few others I expect to outperform their 2020 numbers include: Ozzie Albies , Alex Bregman , Jose Urquidy, Matt Chapman , Marcus Semien , John Means , and Jose Altuve . Do some research on your own, and remember, always, alwas follow your gut. Here’s to hoping you will find value others are passing up in your Fantasy Baseball Drafts!