Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today for Sunday Night Football? The 6-2 Steelers visit the 6-2 Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Sunday night, with Cincinnati a 3.5-point favorite and the total near 49.5, and the AFC North lead on the line. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 10 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Steelers vs. Bengals: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Pittsburgh leans on Jaylen Warren and a ball-control plan against a Bengals defense that allows a league-worst 5.04 yards per carry, while Cincinnati's Joe Burrow leads the NFL's best passing offense against a Steelers defense that leads the league in rush defense DVOA. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for SNF, Week 10
Jaylen Warren NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 64.5 Rushing Yards
Warren has 704 rushing yards on 119 carries through eight games, 88.0 per game at 5.9 yards per carry, and he ran for 127 yards on 17 carries against these same Bengals in Week 3. Pittsburgh is rested off its bye with a ball-control, run-heavy approach, and Warren has been the clear lead back, running 27 routes to Dowdle's seven in the game Dowdle returned. Cincinnati allows a league-worst 5.04 yards per carry and has surrendered 11 runs of 20 or more yards. Over 64.5 rushing yards looks like a strong play for a back averaging 88.
Joe Burrow NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 37.5 Pass Attempts
Burrow is averaging 37.0 pass attempts per game on the way to a league-best 114.8 passer rating, and he threw 37 times against these same Steelers in Week 3 and 48 times against Tennessee when the ground game failed. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in rush defense DVOA, which should steer Cincinnati toward the pass, and the Bengals are only 3.5-point favorites in a game with a total near 49.5. His 29 attempts in last week's win in Madrid came in a blowout, and a closer game should push the number up. Over 37.5 pass attempts looks like a fair play.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Steelers vs. Bengals
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Warren and Burrow as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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