The 2025 Thanksgiving triple-header is built for big scores and massive totals, giving us perfect spots for Underdog Higher/Lower plays. We’ve got Packers-Lions to open, Chiefs-Cowboys in the afternoon, and a Bengals-Ravens prime-time shootout with a 52.5 total that feels too low. With Joe Burrow returning early from turf toe surgery and several key injuries shaking up usage, these two picks below are the sharpest free plays on Underdog for Thursday.

Underdog NFL Free Picks for Thanksgiving Day

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Joe Burrow Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Burrow is officially back and starting after missing nine games, and he’s returning almost a full month ahead of the initial timeline. Baltimore is giving up 1.5 passing TDs per game and multiple scores in seven of their last ten. When Burrow has been healthy in this rivalry, he’s thrown 3+ TDs in four of the last five meetings. Cincinnati is in a must-win, and they figure to do that on the right arm of Joe Burrow.

 

 

 

Kareem Hunt Underdog NFL Pick: Higher Than 0.5 Anytime TD

Yes, Isiah Pacheco is being activated, but Hunt has still scored in four of his last five games and five of his last seven while remaining Kansas City’s primary goal-line back. The Chiefs have the league’s most efficient red-zone offense, and Hunt has gotten virtually every carry inside the 5-yard line over the last month. Dallas has allowed 13 rushing TDs (tied-6th most) and multiple ground scores in four games this year. In a game KC should control late; Hunt is the highest-probability TD scorer on the entire slate.

 

 

 

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