Week 1 is far and away the craziest DFS week of the entire year. We have zero data to go off of from this year. Every single team is playing. And, on top of that, these platforms released pricing a long time ago and, by the nature of the game, they can’t change it. So a LOT of things have been shaken up, leading to a lot of value for us. Let’s dive into the top DFS tight end plays for Week 1 and look at some landmines you should avoid as well. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 1

Tyler Warren TE, Indianapolis Colts

DraftKings: $4,900 | FanDuel: $5,600

Brock Bowers is hurt and Trey McBride is expensive with a tough matchup so we are looking elsewhere this week. That bring us to Mr. Tyler Warren, who finished as the TE4 in PPR last year and is hoping to build on that success. 

Michael Pittman is now gone, which removes the top target getter from last year's equation. Both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are expected to play, but both have been limited with injuries in recent weeks. Keenan Allen has joined the team, but he’s been a part-time guy for a couple years now. I’m not sure why Colston Loveland has to be priced so much higher than Warren when I feel either one could be better in any given week. Warren also has the gadget upside that comes with a converted QB - last year we saw a tush push, a wildcat snap, and he attempted a pass, so that is always on the table. 

Kyle Pitts TE, Atlanta Falcons

DraftKings: $4,700 | FanDuel: $5,500

Kyle Pitts gets a lot of hate which should help keep his rostership low. The reality here is that the Falcons had every opportunity to go get a meaningful WR2 but they didn’t, instead settling for journeyman Jahan Dotson and rookie Zachariah Branch. Instead, they gave that money to Kyle Pitts with a shiny new contract.

The offense Kevin Stefanski runs also primarily focuses on the X (Drake London) and the Y (Kyle Pitts), so it should be an upgrade for him over the previous scheme. The Steelers were one of the worst teams vs. the tight ends last year and I’m not sure they made enough improvements there for us not to like Pitts this week in this matchup. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Week 1

Mark Andrews TE, Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $5,200

Dallas Goedert is also interesting in this range with a good matchup vs. the Commanders, but that game has a lower over/under of 44 points which makes me a little nervous about pace and scoring. This matchup with the Colts is set at 48, making it one of the higher games on the slate.

Declan Doyle has taken over as the offensive coordinator, so I expect a little more tempo and passing with this offense. With Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar gone, Andrews could be set for a full-time role similarly to how Doyle used Colston Loveland last year. The Colts were also a plus matchup for tight ends all last year and it’s hard to drastically change that from one year to the next. 

Juwan Johnson TE, New Orleans Saints

DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,400

This is our play of the week by far. And that’s partially because the pricing came out before we got more information on some of these injuries. On the Saints side, rookie WR Jordyn Tyson was put on IR which opens the door for Johnson to once again be a top-two target behind Chris Olave. That alone would be intriguing before we even look at the Lions' side.

The Lions are not only missing one starting safety - they are missing BOTH. Both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are out for this game. The over/under is set at 50.5 points, the highest of this slate, so it could be a pass-heavy affair. Rarely do things come together this well for a guy, but Juwan Johnson is an absolute smash this week. 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Week 1

Greg Dulcich TE, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $4,000

Opportunity is king in fantasy football. I’ve seen some pretty weird tight ends not only have good individual games with a shot, but run for entire seasons with the right opportunity. Converted QB Logan Thomas finished top five. Robert Tonyan brute forced his way to top five via touchdowns. Even Jonnu Smith came from completely undrafted to finish top five in fantasy a year ago.

The Smith one is interesting because it was on this team with this scheme. Bobby Slowik last year continued that, having Darren Waller run 70% of his routes from a WR spot. This team has no proven guys up top at the WR spot, so Dulcich has a golden opportunity here to run with a big target share. The floor is scary because he might be bad, Malik Willis might be bad, and the Dolphins might be bad, but the ceiling is there. 

Michael Mayer TE, Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,800

This is the kind of free square that we end up getting Week 1. Michael Mayer actually would have been an intriguing dart throw in Klint Kubiak’s scheme from his inline role. The team was set to use a lot of two-tight-end sets. But now that Brock Bowers has been ruled out after minor knee surgery, Mayer is a player that you HAVE to mix into lineups if you play any sort of volume. The pricing is broken because it comes out way too early. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 1

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

Kincaid is a player we generally like. But the bet on him in redraft is hoping that he gets a new, expanded role. We don’t even know for sure that will be the case, but he’s priced that way in DFS. With DJ Moore there, he now HAS to get more targets than Khalil Shakir or he’s in trouble. This week, he also has a brutal matchup with the Texans, so we would rather see this new role of his at least once before we start leaning on him.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $4,600

There were some folks that were upset that I have Tucker Kraft ranked TE8 this week. I think those folks are ignoring that this guy is set to play his first game after a pretty major knee injury. Players, more often than not, either start slow or have a complete down year after that kind of injury. We don’t even know for sure if Kraft is going to be a full time player. And it’s not even a good matchup. No thank you.