Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The Falcons make the first-ever Thursday trip to Lambeau Field with their season on the line at 0-2, while the Packers look to build on a shaky 1-1 start of their own. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 3 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Falcons vs. Packers: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

This is a huge game for both offenses trying to find their footing. Michael Penix makes his first start of the season for Atlanta after recovering from a torn ACL, taking over a Falcons offense that hasn't run a single play in the red zone through two games. Green Bay, meanwhile, has been without Josh Jacobs all year and has leaned heavily on Jordan Love's arm as a result. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 3

Bijan Robinson NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 18.5 Rushing Attempts

Robinson has been the one constant for this offense, carrying it 21 times in Week 1 and 16 times in Week 2 regardless of which quarterback was under center. Atlanta remains the only team in the NFL without a single red zone snap through two games, and head coach Kevin Stefanski has been explicit that establishing the run is part of the solution. Michael Penix finally gets his first start of the season this week after recovering from a torn ACL, and while that should help the offense overall, there's little reason to think it comes at the expense of Robinson's workload. Protecting a quarterback in his first start back from a major knee injury is often exactly when teams lean on the run the most. Clearing 18.5 carries fits right in line with how this offense has operated so far.

Jordan Love NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 30.5 Pass Attempts

Love has thrown 42 and 29 passes through two games, a heavy workload driven almost entirely by a running game that has gone nowhere without Josh Jacobs, who's stuck on the Commissioner's Exempt List with no timetable for a return before Week 7 at the earliest. Green Bay has managed just 66 and 63 rushing yards in its first two games, and the offensive line took another hit when right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele went down for the season. With the ground game still searching for answers, there's no reason to expect Green Bay to suddenly pull back on Love's workload against Atlanta. Clearing 30.5 attempts is very much in line with how this offense has had to operate so far.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Falcons vs. Packers

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Robinson and Love as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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