2026 Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers: Biggest Movers Ahead Of Week 10

Week 9 of the NFL season is in the books, and I’ll remind you that it’s important to not just look at the box score when evaluating players and stating whether their fantasy football stock is up or down. Many times, the numbers under the hood can paint a more accurate or complete picture of a player’s usage, value, or role. That’s the idea behind our Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers series. Throughout the season, we’ll monitor these underlying metrics and trends to identify fantasy football breakout candidates, waiver wire targets, trade targets, sleepers, and players who have seen their fantasy football stock go up or go down. Also, be sure to check out a few players I identified as possible fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates! If you want to stay ahead of your league, these are the fantasy football trends and fantasy football values you need to know as Week 8 is in the rearview mirror, and we head into Week 9 of the NFL season.

Biggest Fantasy Football Risers Before Week 10

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

Since returning from his devastating knee injury, Dell has caught five of 10 targets for 148 yards and a TD, good for an average of 13 fantasy points per game. The encouraging thing is that after the bye, he saw a big jump in his usage and workload. In his debut, he posted a 20.4% snap share and 13.3% route share, but in Week 9, those numbers jumped to 47% and 55%, respectively. The team has said they are going to continue to ramp him up, but it’s worth noting that in the two games since his return, he’s second on the team in target share (15.4%), while posting an excellent 0.38 targets per route run, 5.69 yards per route run, and absurd 29.6 yards per reception, per FantasyPoints Data.

I’d expect the wide receiver production to fluctuate weekly, given that Houston has five receivers that play, but Dell provides something that no other receiver on the team does, which is breakaway speed, juice, and an incredible rapport with C.J. Stroud. There’s some risk, sure, but those who stashed Dell or picked him up around when he returned might get rewarded with a solid flex option the rest of the way, especially if Houston remains pass-heavy and relies heavily on 11 personnel (second-highest usage of 11 personnel in Week 9 at 83.3%, per FantasyPoints Data).

Pat Bryant, Denver Broncos

In Weeks 1-4, before his injury, despite trailing both Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton in snap share, route share, and targets, Bryant was actually second in yards per route run (1.58) and had a higher first downs per route run metric (0.083) than both Waddle (0.073) and Sutton (0.045), per FantasyPoints Data. Also, Bo Nix had a 138.5 passer rating when targeting Bryant, and in terms of fantasy points per game and fantasy points per route run, he was the team’s WR2.

He missed a few weeks, but then in Week 9, he returned, played 70.8% of the snaps and had a 73.7% route participation rate, both of which were season-highs! He managed to catch four of five targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in that game, and his deployment on the field was similar to Sutton before the injury, so it’s not as if this was solely based on Waddle’s departure.

Sure, Bryant did get a bump after Waddle exited, but I don’t think it would have been terribly long until Bryant was the true WR2 for this team. Regardless, post-Waddle’s concussion in Week 9, Bryant ran a route on 82.1% of the team’s dropbacks, had a 14.8% target share, and posted 2.43 yards per route run (compared to Sutton’s 1.68), per FantasyPoints Data.

Biggest Fantasy Football Fallers Before Week 10

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In terms of fantasy points per game, Egbuka is a back-end WR3 on the year, and while I’m not saying that a WR1 on a run-first team can’t be fantasy viable, it’s proven difficult for Egbuka in recent weeks. He did put up 17+ fantasy points in Weeks 5-6, but then he missed a few games, and in Week 9, he saw just five targets and posted 6.9 fantasy points. Even when he was healthier earlier on, he’s posted a subpar separation score and route win rate, per FantasyPoints Data, and Tampa Bay is currently throwing the ball at the league’s lowest rate! The Bucs have a negative pass rate over expectation in three straight games, and in five of the last six, per FantasyPoints Data.

Egbuka sits at just 5.15 yards per target and 1.22 yards per route run on the year, and his average depth of target (aDOT) is two-plus yards lower than where he sat last season, per FantasyPoints Data. He’s yet to top 65 receiving yards in a game this season, and quarterbacks have a 60.6 passer rating when targeting him, per FantasyPoints Data.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as some numbers under the hood are very strong, like his 29.6% first read rate, 33.1% air yards share, and 0.24 targets per route run, per FantasyPoints Data. However, amongst 28 receivers with at least 50 targets on the year, he has the third-lowest yards per route run, second-lowest first downs per route run, worst yards per target, and worst yards per target over expectation, per FantasyPoints Data.

The only potential saving grace here is that he potentially gets healthier, and his next four games come against Detroit, Carolina, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Baltimore.

Marvin Harrison, Houston Texans

It might not come as a surprise here, but Dell’s ascension might coincide with Harrison slipping a bit. It’s very concerning that after the team’s bye week, he was essentially the WR5 in Week 9. Check out some of the Week 9 numbers yourself, courtesy of FantasyPoints Data:

When a player joins a team mid-season, it takes time to get acclimated and ramped up, and the bye week is normally perfect for that. However, Hutchinson isn’t coming off the field; the team clearly loves Dell and has publicly said they are going to continue to ramp him up. It seems like Harrison’s battle is for the WR4 spot with Boutte. In three games now with Houston, Harrison Jr. has an 11.3% target share, 2.07 yards per route run, and 6.0 fantasy points per game, per FantasyPoints Data.

If you can hold onto Harrison another week or two, I would try to do so, and while Harrison Jr. has looked good on some of his routes and receptions, there’s just a lot of mouths to feed in this wide receiver room.

Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Anything will be better than Joe Fagnano for Zay Flowers moving forward, as Flowers posted 0.25 yards per route run and nine receiving yards on 36 routes with Fagnano, per FantasyPoints Data. YIKES! Fortunately, Baltimore made the move for Jacoby Brissett, a competent NFL passer, and Brissett will have some extra time to get acclimated to his new digs, thanks to Baltimore playing Thursday in Week 9 and the team playing on Monday this week. Amongst quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks on the year, Brissett has the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate, 6th-highest accurate throw rate, and sixth-highest catchable ball rate, per FantasyPoints Data.

Flowers is the alpha in the passing attack, and while Brissett is throwing the ball deep downfield, Flowers’ elite separation ability should present a nice target for Brissett, who has a 74% completion rate and 93.5 passer rating on passes within 15 yards downfield. Flowers has a 98th percentile separation score and 96th percentile yards after catch per reception on the year, per FantasyPoints Data, and Brissett coming into town will help elevate Flowers closer to where he was when he had Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.

Oh, Baltimore gets the Chargers, Panthers, and Texans across the next three weeks before its bye.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is a fringe QB1 on the year, but since the team’s Week 7 bye, he’s averaging just 226 passing yards per game, 4.5 rushing yards per game, and 17 fantasy points per game. To his credit, he still has 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four, but he’s yet to record a rushing touchdown this year, and on pace for a career-high turnover-worthy play rate (6.7%), per FantasyPoints Data. The lack of rushing production is concerning, because that can really help elevate a quarterback, and through eight games on the season, he’s accrued just 7.9 fantasy points per game with his legs and a would-be career-low 3.7% designed carry share, per FantasyPoints Data.

However, I’d be looking to buy low on Lawrence, because perhaps the rushing production ticks up a bit as we start to enter crunch time of the season, and Jacksonville clearly has Super Bowl aspirations. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s schedule is a cakewalk the rest of the way, and it’s great for QB production. Over the next four weeks, the Jags get the Titans, Giants, Titans again, and the Bears.

This is the last time you’ll likely have a reasonable chance to acquire Lawrence.

Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates

Darren Waller, Carolina Panthers

In the four games before the team’s Week 9 loss to the Broncos, Waller caught five of eight targets for 97 yards and a TD (20.7 fantasy points). In Week 9, Waller caught eight of 10 targets for 90 yards and a TD (23 fantasy points). It’s just the second time this year he’s surpassed 15 fantasy points (PPR) in a game, and he still has more games with five or fewer fantasy points (3) than games with 15+! Carolina’s 11 personnel usage in Week 9 was their second-lowest in a game this year, while they deployed both 12 and 13 personnel at the second-highest clip, per FantasyPoints Data. Here are Waller’s numbers by personnel, per FantasyPoints Data:

Also, those numbers out of 12 personnel aren’t boosted by the Week 9 performance, as he posted 3.92 yards per route run and a 158.3 passer rating when targeted prior to that Week 9 game! If Carolina commits to playing 12 and 13 personnel more frequently, Waller stands to benefit from that, but ultimately, if you can use Waller’s big Week 9 numbers to upgrade him on your team, I’d be doing that in a heartbeat.

DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots

Thanks to an elevated role in recent weeks and a 91st-percentile separation score on the year, per FantasyPoints Data, Douglas has been very, very good for fantasy managers in recent weeks. Since Week 5, he’s the WR15 in fantasy, posting an 18.4% target share, 2.73 yards per route run, and a 155.5 passer rating, per FantasyPoints Data. You’d like to see more than just 22.4% of the team’s air yards and a 19.6% first-read rate, but from Weeks 5-9, he’s posted the same fantasy points per route run (0.63) as Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Here’s why now might be the time to capitalize on Douglas’ production and put him in a package to acquire someone superior to him.

• With A.J. Brown: 43.0 receiving yards per game, 1.57 yards per route run, 19.8% target share
• Without A.J. Brown: 50.8 receiving yards per game, 2.12 yards per route run, 13.5% target share

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• With Mack Hollins: 36.8 receiving yards per game, 1.37 yards per route run, 14.6% target share
• Without Mack Hollins: 62.5 receiving yards per game, 2.72 yards per route run, 17.1% target share

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• With BOTH Brown and Hollins: 20.0 receiving yards per game, 0.63 yards per route run, 21.2% target share
• Without BOTH Brown and Hollins: 51.8 receiving yards per game, 2.13 yards per route run, 14.9% target share

Sure, the target share with the guys on the field has been higher, but the yardage and yards per route run numbers take a hit. Hollins is back in the mix, and while I believe Brown misses the Week 10 game, he could be back after the team’s Week 11 bye. Douglas is a fine player, and everyone knows that the slot WR in a Josh McDaniels offense is fantasy-viable, but a crowded WR room could complicate things a bit for that narrative moving forward.