Need the best PrizePicks NFL picks today to close out Week 1? The Broncos and Chiefs meet at Arrowhead with both Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix returning from season-ending injuries suffered last January. Below, we cover our favorite PrizePicks NFL picks for this AFC West opener, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Broncos vs. Chiefs: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Kansas City missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 after Mahomes went down with a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15, while Denver won the AFC West outright before a Bo Nix injury derailed its own title chase. Both quarterbacks are back for Week 1, and both rosters retooled heavily around them, with Denver adding Jaylen Waddle to its receiver room and Kansas City signing Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker. Denver's defense, which led the NFL in sacks a year ago, headlines a game currently sitting at Chiefs -2.5 with a 43.5 total. Let's break down the PrizePicks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best PrizePicks NFL Picks for MNF, Week 1

Jaylen Waddle NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 7.5 1Q Receiving Yards

Waddle arrives in Denver via a blockbuster offseason trade that cost the Broncos a first-round pick, and he immediately becomes one of the most efficient weapons on the roster. He's finished as a top-15 wide receiver in yards per route in three of the last four seasons, and since 2022, an eye-popping 71.7% of his catches have gone for first downs or touchdowns. With Courtland Sutton commanding attention on the outside, Denver's offense should look to get its new toy involved early to set the tone. That plan gets even easier with Kansas City ruling out starting safety Chamarri Conner, who joins a Chiefs secondary that already lost Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson in free agency and traded away Trent McDuffie this offseason. An early-scripted target for a big-play weapon against a shorthanded secondary is a great early-game recipe.

Patrick Mahomes NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 14.5 Rushing Yards

Mahomes has quietly become a sneaky good runner, posting a career-high 422 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns across 14 games last season, an average of over 30 yards per game. He's officially cleared from the torn ACL and LCL that ended his 2025 season early and has looked sharp throughout camp heading into Monday. Denver's pass rush, which led the NFL in sacks a season ago behind Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, figures to test him early, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain anchors a secondary that can lock down first reads. When Mahomes doesn't have anywhere to go with the football against that kind of pressure and coverage, his legs have always been the release valve. Clearing 14.5 rushing yards against a defense built to make him uncomfortable in the pocket is well within range.

PrizePicks NFL Player Projections for Broncos vs. Chiefs

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Waddle and Mahomes as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every PrizePicks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

How to Play These PrizePicks NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Get Over $150 in Bonuses

Ready to build an entry around these picks? Sign up for PrizePicks with promo code ALARM and unlock over $150 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically, no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 1 finale that's already stacked with value.