Denver Broncos fans had about 20 minutes or so to celebrate last week’s win over the Buffalo Bills. That was before the news came that starting quarterback Bo Nix had broken his ankle in the final minutes of the game. Now it’s up to Jarrett Stidham to keep the team afloat and rely on their elite defense, offensive line, and special teams.

On the flip side, the New England Patriots have faced criticism of their “soft schedule” all year. If they lose this week to a backup quarterback, the ruthless ranks of the internet will make sure that hangs over their head. Backup quarterbacks are professional football players too, so we’ll have to factor all these narratives and more into our Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and picks for the Conference Championship round this week. 

Even if you just want to see the Patriots vs. Broncos odds and have Patriots vs. Broncos picks of your own, stick around so that you can also learn how to snag a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up bonus!

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions For Sunday 3:00 PM ET, NFL Conference Championship Round

The Patriots and Broncos used to play quite often when they both led the division and made the playoffs virtually every year. Over the seven-year span from 2011 to 2017, they played 10 times. In the seven years since, they have only played twice (each team won once with the Broncos winning most recently in 2023). They have yet to play since drafting Bo Nix and Drake Maye, so that doesn’t affect us much here. Especially with Nix not even playing.

Both teams have been spectacular - which is how you make it this far. The Patriots this year are 8-0 on the road while the Broncos are 8-1 at home. Both teams are 9-1 over their last 10 games. It’s hard to argue that any other AFC teams deserve to be here. 

New England Patriots: Healthy At The Right Time

The Patriots were missing some key pieces on defense throughout the year. Early in the year, they missed Christian Gonzalez. Towards the end, they were missing Milton Williams and their leading tackler/defensive play caller, Robert Spillane. Those three players are all healthy, though unfortunately, Harold Landry has been ruled out for this week. . 

The Patriots' offense also missed a key contributor - left tackle Will Campbell. He returned to action last week. To a lesser extent, they were without Mack Hollins the last few weeks, but it sounds like he will be back this week. Drake Maye even commented that Hollins was “all gas, no breaks” in practice on Friday.

Denver Broncos: The Jarrett Stidham Show

There’s no getting around this discussion. Everything falls on the shoulders of Jarrett Stidham. By all accounts, he is a very smart quarterback, so I don’t see any issues with knowing what to do. But can he execute in his first game of the year as a starter against a tough Patriots defense? Even locked in starting quarterbacks have had a hard time playing clean football against them, so it would be an incredible performance by Stidham if he simply doesn’t turn the ball over.

On defense, the Broncos have very few flaws. Pat Surtain is defensive player of the year caliber. Nik Bonitto has been a terror for opposing quarterbacks. The one guy who has had his noticeable struggles is Riley Moss, who leads the team in penalties and has allowed seven touchdowns. But he’s more of the weak link in a very strong chain than an actual bad player. 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Broncos: New England Patriots -4.5 (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

I understand where a lot of bettors are coming from. They LOVE trends. So they see that, in the conference championship games, home underdogs with a spread of four or more have played 9 times and they have covered nine times. They also are looking at the Nick Foles narrative. He did it,  so why can’t the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham?

Well, for starters, Nick Foles had already been starting since Week 15 when that happened. He wasn’t coming right off the bench to start in the NFC Championship. In fact, Nick Foles had already started 39 games in the NFL by that point, not four like Stidham. They also didn’t fit the underdog narrative in that game as they were 2.5-point favorites against the Vikings, not underdogs.

All those narratives are painting this picture that going from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham here isn’t that big of a problem. But the truth is that the Broncos weren’t even a lock to cover the spread with Nix out there. The Patriots are getting healthy at the right time here, especially on defense, and I think they handle business pretty handedly at this stage. Asking Stidham to step up and run this team after playing 14 snaps all season is just too big of an ask. 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Broncos Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

New England Patriots

Denver Broncos

 

 

 

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