NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up, Odds & Spreads For All 4 Games

Welcome to our NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up! What a phenomenal weekend of football that the Wild Card weekend provided us with. Multiple one-score games, come-from-behind victories, and some amazing plays that I will not forget (Caleb Williams might just be Superman). Let's hope this slate can live up to the high standards the 2026 NFL Playoffs have set so far!

So without further ado, it is time to bring you our expert NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up. Below, you will find my picks, some highlighted matchups, and the odds and spreads for every game this week.

NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up & Odds For All 4 Games

With the NFL playoffs here, we have some great matchups on paper for the Divisional Round! In the following section, you will find my predictions, with the teams I anticipate coming away with a victory highlighted in bold. Odds are courtesy of BetMGM:

• Buffalo Bills -102 vs. Denver Broncos -118
• San Francisco 49ers +280 vs. Seattle Seahawks -350
• Houston Texans +140 vs. New England Patriots -170
• Los Angeles Rams -200 vs. Chicago Bears +165

NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up: Denver Broncos ML (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

I doubted Josh Allen last week before he was able to pull out a miraculous win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, carry the Bills on his back, and outplay Trevor Lawrence. Even with his heroic performance last week and proving me wrong, I am still picking against him here. 

In the Wild Card round, I noted that the Jaguars will likely be able to slow down the run game, forcing Allen and the Bills' defense to dictate the game. That ended up being the case, as the Bills were held to just 79 rushing yards as a team. I think the Broncos defense will be able to do the same, forcing a receiving group currently only three wide receivers deep (Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman) to step up, led by a still banged-up Josh Allen. The defense they'll be stepping up against just happens to be the best in the league, coming off an extra week of rest. Not the most ideal matchup. 

On top of the tough matchup between the Bills' offense and the Broncos' defense comes the fact of the matter that playing in Mile High is a very strong homefield advantage for the Broncos. This season, the Broncos were 8-1 at home, only losing to the Jaguars in a stunning upset. I think they will be able to protect their home field, thanks to a well-rested, healthier team and an elite defense, and advance to the conference championship.

NFL Divisional Round Picks Straight Up: New England Patriots ML (-170 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

After just picking an elite defense, I will be picking against another one here. The Houston Texans' defense put on one of the most elite playoff performances that I can remember, likely ending Aaron Rodgers' legendary career with a pick-six. That being said, C.J. Stroud and the offense looked… fine? If you read last week's article, I picked the Texans to win fairly easily due to the fact that the Steelers did not rank very favorably in terms of offense OR defense. Despite that, the Steelers' defense looked great against the Texans' offense, holding them to 16 points. Now, the Texans' offense will face off against a defense that just held Justin Herbert and the Chargers to three points.

Yes, I know the Patriots offense was ALSO held to 16 points, but this was Drake Maye's first playoff start against a defensive coordinator who is in almost all the head coaching conversations. He also seemed to find his groove in the second half of that game. Now, what I believe is a more well-rounded Patriots team that is getting healthier and finding a groove on defense, will face off against a Texans team likely without their leading receiver, all with home-field advantage. I think the run the Texans have been on has been incredibly impressive, but I think it ends here. While I would not be surprised to see another defensive takeover from Houston, I do like the Patriots to squeak away a win here.

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NFL Divisional Round Spreads For All 4 Games Provided By BetMGM Sportsbook

We just unveiled our NFL Divisional Round picks, and below are the spread odds for each matchup, provided by BetMGM Sportsbook:

• Bills +1.5 vs. Broncos -1.5
• 49ers +7 vs. Seahawks -7
• Texans +3 vs Patriots -3
• Rams -3.5 vs. Bears +3.5

Be sure to come back and check out our NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread, or take advantage of our BetMGM bonus code ALARM by signing up now!