The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and with it comes the always exciting array of NFL DFS contests. We could ask you the question, “Who wants to be a millionaire?” but we already know the answer – everyone. That’s why we’re here. We are looking to consistently win cash games each week, take down as many GPP tournaments as we can, and make this season our most profitable yet. So, let’s just put the fries in the bag, bro, and dish out those top NFL DFS Week 1 picks, right?

OK, maybe slow your roll just a bit. You’ll get the best in NFL DFS Week 1 picks, but let’s outline what we are trying to do here: why you subscribed to the Fantasy Alarm All-Pro. And that is to make you a better NFL DFS player. Sure, you can just take the picks I give you in the NFL DFS Playbook and pop them into whatever contests you like, but what we try to do here is help you consistently turn a profit as often as we can. You’re not going to win every week. Let’s make that clear. No one wins each and every week, and if they tell you they do, they are lying to you. 

But what we can do is make you a better player; a more profitable player. NFL DFS can be a tough nut to crack sometimes, but if you have the right NFL DFS tools and you’re breaking down the weekly matchups properly, your DFS game can and will be taken to another level. And it all starts here each week in the NFL DFS Week 1 Watch List. Allow me to explain.

NFL DFS Week 1 Watch List & Top Picks

What you are looking at in this article is the NFL DFS Week 1 Watch List, which covers NFL DFS Week 1 picks for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can, obviously, use it on other DFS sites as well, but their pricing won’t be listed. Not the end of the world, and typically, good bargains are similar from site to site, but just to be aware.

If you have been a longtime Fantasy Alarm subscriber, then you know what this DFS Watch List is all about. If not, allow me to properly introduce it using my favorite adage:

Give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he’ll eat for a lifetime.

We take this to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.

Therefore, we will begin each week with this Weekly NFL DFS Watch List, which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays, and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries, which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to kickoff. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.

This week is always the most difficult when making your NFL DFS Week 1 picks. While you can look back at last season’s numbers and see which teams struggled the most against the pass or the run, that data may be outdated and, in some cases, irrelevant as coaches, player personnel, and schemes change so often from year-to-year. A team that struggled mightily against the run last year, for example, may have added some help on the defensive line, thus fortifying their weakness. The same can be said about a weak secondary from 2025, which changed from zone to man-to-man coverage. We’ll still be able to use some of the data, but as we’ve seen before, it takes a few weeks before we spot some of the more noticeable trends.

Once again, our focus here is the Sunday main slate. This list will start out with some of my favorite plays, but again, keep in mind that I will be adding more names throughout the week, as well as possibly even removing some. 

Let’s get to those NFL DFS Week 1 picks we're watching.

 

 

 

Best DraftKings DFS Picks for Week 1

Remember, this is just a first glance at some of the top NFL DFS Week 1 picks. The article comes out on a Tuesday, so most people are still very reactionary to what they witnessed over the weekend and Monday Night Football. For this week, though, we get a little bit less reactionary noise. You’ll still hear some, but just wait until next week when the saxophones grow louder.

Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,900) 

Anchoring one of the slate's highest game totals (Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, implied total around 51.5 points), Burrow offers immense ceiling paired with surprisingly low single-digit tournament ownership. Because the field heavily gravitates toward stacking the skill players (like Ja'Marr Chase) while ignoring the signal-caller, pairing Burrow with a full-game stack creates elite GPP leverage.  

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100) 

Projected strongly by baseline models for his raw point-per-dollar value, Herbert sits at a very manageable mid-tier price tag that allows you to comfortably fit elite running back chalk (such as Jahmyr Gibbs) into your build while maintaining a high projected passing floor. We've witnessed over the years the impact Mike McDaniel can have on a quarterback's offensive output, and Herbert is no exception.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints ($5,600)

Shough proved to be a bit of a gunslinger last season, and that resonated well with Kellen Moore, who always prefers to see his quarterbacks looking downfield rather than out in the flat. This should work even better as the Saints face a Lions team that is expected to be missing at least two key components in their secondary, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Should the Lions grab an early lead and try to run the clock in the second half, we can expect Shough to try and keep his team in the game.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions ($8,000)

While the Saints have done some things to improve upon their defense, we expect this to be a big Week 1 for Gibbs. No more David Montgomery to poach touches, and the current backups will probably be just that. The Lions are a seven-point favorite in this one and are expected to utilize Gibbs in all facets, including running out the clock in the second half. 

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,900)

The Eagles made the change to Sean Mannion as their offensive coordinator, and he knows all about establishing the run and using it to set up the pass. He also knows he’s got a head start over the opposition because the Eagles are returning the same starting five offensive line members. You don’t need me to spew data as to why Barkley is one of the best. Let’s just enjoy the fact that he’s the seventh most-expensive guy on the slate, and that’s a value we probably won’t see very often, especially against a Commanders run defense that didn’t fill as many defensive needs as they would have liked in the offseason.

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,600)

If my preseason research is right, this will probably be the cheapest you see Jeanty all season. Head coach Klint Kubiak has fully adopted his father Gary’s run-first philosophy and even took it another step by continuing to hire his father’s best friend Rick Dennison as his offensive line coach. The Kubiak/Dennison zone-blocking scheme has been churning out 1,000-yard rushers since the mid-90s, and against the Miami Dolphins, one of the absolute worst run defenses out there, we’re going to get an early look at why we were so bullish on Jeanty from Day 1. 

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,800) 

Whether the belief in the Bengals is there or not (they seem to always get off to a slow start), you have to believe in the overall talent that is Chase. Standing out as one of the premier plays on the 12-game main slate, he anchors the highest game environment total of the week. Though projected for high tournament ownership (around 32%), his ceiling in full-PPR DraftKings scoring makes him an elite core piece to absorb, especially when paired with low-owned quarterback configurations.  

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints ($6,700) 

Positioned in an indoor game environment with a high implied pace, Olave commands heavy target share and frequently surfaces near the top of projection models for raw volume. Our expectations are that the Lions will try to slow the pace down and keep the Saints from escaping the loss with crazy, big plays; you know Tyler Shough is going to take numerous chances and test a banged-up Lions secondary.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,200) 

Poised for an expanded offensive role out of the gate, Egbuka offers massive tournament leverage inside the Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game stack. His mid-tier price tag allows you to capture a piece of a high-total environment without over-allocating salary. What should also help is the fact that Egbuka has been dealing with a toe injury throughout the preseason, so we'll continue to check to make sure we are getting him at low ownership too.

Tight End

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,900)

A continued attack on the Miami defense is warranted, and one thing that hasn’t changed in the offseason is that their coverage of the tight end is soft. What you’re also likely to see is Bowers being covered by slot corner Chris Johnson, because we know Kubiak is going to move his best pass-catcher all over the field. Kirk Cousins is just getting himself started here, so we know he’s going to lean on the best options. Outside of Bowers and Jeanty, I don’t know if there even is another on this roster.

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears ($5,300)

Well, Ben Johnson did say he wanted to break the NFL record for most points per game, right? It all starts here. Following a stellar finish to his rookie campaign where he dominated high-leverage routes and commanded targets at an elite rate over the final month, Loveland enters Week 1 firmly inside the upper tier of tight end options. As a focal point for high-value red-zone targets, his touchdown equity provides a multi-touchdown ceiling that makes him a premier tournament play when building lineups that fade higher-priced chalk. 

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints ($3,700)

Johnson closed out the previous season on a major upward trajectory once Tyler Shough took over under center, ranking inside the top 12 in target share and yards-per-route-run metrics among qualifying tight ends. The Saints-Lions matchup features one of the highest game totals on the Week 1 main slate (49.5 at press time), creating an ideal indoor track setting where New Orleans will need to aggressively throw to keep pace. With Chris Olave drawing all the coverage and the Lions missing both their starting safeties, we like Johnson as a strong pay-down.

 

 

 

Best FanDuel DFS Picks for Week 1

It’s only Week 1, so we aren’t really seeing any out-of-proportion discrepancies going from DraftKings to FanDuel. For example, Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka is $6,200 on DK but just $5,000 on FanDuel. That’s the kind of half-point PPR discount we are looking for. There will be significantly more as the season rolls on, but for now, it’s fairly limited. You should consider any and all of the above players for FanDuel contests, but we can sneak in a few more for this week’s Watch List.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings ($7,200)

His cost puts him down in the range of guys like Tyler Shough and Jacoby Brissett, and considering his rushing upside, this looks like it could be a nice GGP tournament target. The Packers' pass rush loses a lot without Micah Parsons, and their secondary is going to be tasked with stopping the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings. The 48.5 game total definitely has me stacking some Vikings at home.

Running Back

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300)

Hampton anchors the Los Angeles backfield as a central focal point under the team's new offensive scheme, possessing the clear inside track for high-value touches and goal-line work. He excels at breaking tackles and generating yards after contact, translating efficiently to raw fantasy points on limited touches when his blocks materialize cleanly in space. Positioned into an early-season matchup where the offense is projected to control the line of scrimmage, Hampton offers a stable median floor alongside multi-touchdown upside that makes him a strong tournament or cash-game anchor.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears ($6,700)

This is the perfect opportunity to remind you that the NFL DFS Week 1 Watch List is a fluid piece. Odunze was not at practice so far this week, and he is currently listed as “day-to-day.” I’m guessing he plays for Week 1 and we get him at a major discount. The half-point PPR scoring favors a guy like Odunze over someone like Luther Burden, as Odunze’s value isn’t necessarily tied to his target volume. The Panthers corners are going to be under fire plenty in this one.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans ($5,100)

Functioning as a premier salary-saver, Schultz projects heavily across high-stakes tournament lineups. His very affordable price tag fails to reflect an expected role that captures consistent target volume, making him an ideal piece to unlock expensive running back and wide receiver chalk.

 

 

 

DFS Value Plays & Sleepers to Target in Week 1

Jacoby Brissett, QB Arizona Cardinals

Standing out as a top-tier quarterback-plus-two stack shape for tournament lineups, Brissett provides the ultimate salary relief mechanism. This enables you to load up on high-priced skill talent elsewhere on the board while capturing necessary correlation.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB Green Bay Packers

Stepping into a clear lead-back role for Green Bay following roster adjustments, Lloyd provides immense salary relief. His sub-$5,000 price tag, on both the main sites, unlocks the ability to build heavily balanced lineups that feature multiple high-priced receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR Philadelphia Eagles

You know you have to pay attention when I start recommending a guy I’ve been cracking on for his entire career. Wicks is now the WR2 in Philadelphia, and while I expect DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to see the majority of targets, Wicks has the explosiveness to be a difference-maker in GPP tournaments. Ownership will likely be low considering no one like poor Jalen Hurts anymore, but against this Washington secondary, I’m expecting a little something extra here.

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Our sweet, sweet baby Cade Otton, all 6-foot-5, 250 pounds of swaddled goodness, could prove to be an intriguing option this week. While we expect Egbuka to return to action, we are less confident about Jalen McMillan, and that could lead to extra targets over the middle to the tight end. The Bengals did some work to bolster the defense, but the middle of the field is still likely to be exposed. And the price…on either site, is yummy delish.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Strategy Tips for Week 1

First and foremost, it is my personal recommendation that you play light this week. I know there is plenty of excitement for Week 1, but understand that very few of these starters have played a ton of preseason snaps. It’s why sharp bettors take a lot of unders here in the first week, because most players are still working on their timing and developing a rhythm. You will have numerous opportunities to play bigger contests and more lineups. But the smart move is to use NFL Week 1 as an opportunity to learn – learn the coaching tendencies, learn the coverage schemes, learn which players are seeing the majority of snaps, carries, and targets. Don’t just work off last year’s data and assume it will be the same, because it won’t be. Remember, 10 new head coaches and 20 new offensive coordinators change a lot from team to team.

Other helpful tips include:

Exploit Soft Salaries Created by Late-Summer News

Week 1 salaries are typically locked weeks before kickoff, meaning they do not account for late-summer injuries, sudden depth-chart climbs, or suspension shifts. Target high-leverage value plays whose roles changed drastically after pricing occurred (such as backfield injuries or newly appointed starters) while their price tags remain artificially low.  

Target Inefficient Game Stacks Over Single-Player Focus

Focus heavily on correlation by deploying game stacks (Quarterback + primary pass-catcher + opposing bring-back). In tournaments, prioritize spots where a high-end receiver carries heavy chalk ownership, but the quarterback's individual ownership is low. This lets you capture the upside of the offense's ceiling without swallowing the entire field's roster construction.  

Embrace Variance Instead of Fading All Chalk

Do not automatically fade popular players simply because they carry high projected ownership. Evaluate whether the field's ownership is justified by projection and role. If a high-owned player's expected output matches simulation data, swallow the ownership and differentiate your lineup elsewhere using low-owned defenses or unique flex options.  

Prioritize Floor at Running Back, Ceiling at Receiver

Because full-PPR or half-PPR scoring penalizes pass-catchers whose volume fluctuates, running backs who inherit bell-cow workloads or heavy snap counts offer superior stability. Treat wide receiver positions as high-variance spots where chasing ceiling and targeting secondary pieces in fast-paced offenses wins large-field GPPs.

Leverage Positional Scarcity at Defense and Tight End

On sites where tight ends or defenses exhibit tight pricing tiers, look for extreme value or leverage plays that free up cap space for elite core stacks. Defenses facing turnover-prone quarterbacks often provide the highest raw value-per-dollar metric on the slate. 

Do you feel like you’re ready now? Great! Now keep reading the rest of the content we’ve got here on Fantasy Alarm and stay attentive to all the latest news and injury reports. And keep checking back here for more potential NFL DFS Week 1 picks to be added.