Following the Labor Slate to start the week is one that features the entire league back on the diamond, as we’d expect for a Tuesday. You’ve also come to expect us hitting some MLB home run picks, so that’s exactly what we’re here to do with more than just the FREE newsletter bonus pick that hit last night! The slate starts with Pete Alonso, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Schwarber at the dish, so how could we not? Thankfully, there are enough great spots where it’s easy to avoid Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski so that we can lock in the best MLB home run predictions for today!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Along with the two aces we already mentioned, we also have Sandy Alcantara and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the slate, so you’ll want to add to our MLB home run picks by checking out our MLB expert picks. Other hitter props, K props, game markets, and everything in between are up for grabs. You can also pair that bet tracker with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool; you’ll be able to find even more MLB home run predictions worth targeting!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/8: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We already know that we need to break down the guys directly allowing/hitting the MLB home run picks, but before we can do that, we need to check our very own MLB weather report. Even without Wrigley Field on the menu, we still care about wind, not to mention humidity, possible postponements, and other outdoor factors.

Those can also affect pitchers, which is why many guys struggle in spots like Sacramento, which is on the menu right now. Therefore, Jose Soriano’s metrics are worth a look, and when it comes to those, we check out barrel rates, hard-hit rates, slugging allowed, and more for all starters. We also want to see more of the same for hitters - the guys actually cashing the MLB home run picks.

We’ll also look at their righty/lefty splits, average exit velocities, launch angles, and more. Of course, we can’t assume everyone is Sandy Alcantara and a threat to pitch a complete game, so we’ll check in with bullpens as well. It all creates recipes that we want to target for the MLB home run picks that we’re about to break down below!

Bobby Witt Jr. (+365)

Harping on Kauffman Stadium in KC has been like beating a dead horse as of late, but we’re not going to fight against the Royals lineup when the matchup calls for it. Yesterday, we saw the return of Nick Pivetta in San Diego, and for Arizona today, it’s the return of Corbin Burnes. In other words, a guy far from midseason form to allow some MLB home run picks.

There is no doubt that the righty has had some amazing stretches of his career in both Milwaukee and Baltimore, but he’s also not immune to the longball - he allowed 22+ HRs in three straight seasons prior to a shortened one last year. Speaking of which, this will be his first time on the mound since June 1…of 2025!

Even though that also means a short leash, the Arizona bullpen can be had. Whether it comes early or late, we’re leading off our best MLB home run picks for today with Bobby Witt Jr. hitting a HR (21.5%, so +365, at Novig). 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+444)

We’ve been on the Washington Nationals lineup here recently, but a unit we’ve targeted even more this season is their bullpen. That’s because they’ve allowed more HRs than any other relief staff this season, hitting the 100 mark before this series even began! So, we love seeing a bullpen game for the Nats to cash some MLB home run picks.

Like we said yesterday, Petco Park in San Diego isn’t known as an amazing hitter’s ballpark, but this Washington bullpen can allow dingers anywhere. They’re starting things with Riley Cornelio, a righty, but don’t expect him on the mound for long. Since we don’t have to stress about a righty/lefty on the mound, we have our pick of the litter.

Given his 97th percentile hard-hit rate and 95th percentile average exit velocity, we’re going to add to our top MLB home run picks today with Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting a HR (+444 at DraftKings). 

Will Smith (+358)

Shohei Ohtani back in the lineup is what it was all about in Los Angeles last night as the Dodgers took down the Cincinnati Reds. However, he went 0-for-3 with a walk, so perhaps these injuries are truly affecting him. Of course, he could also bounce back and cash multiple MLB home run picks himself against Nick Lodolo.

That said, we’re still going to go with a righty, as the Reds lefty starter allows much more power to that side of the plate with a .230 ISO compared to a .118 expected ISO to lefties. While this comes with assuming Smith is behind the plate, it’s all but a guarantee that he will be instead of Hunter Feduccia and his lefty vs. lefty inabilities.

It’s time for this righty to hit his first homer since returning, and we have him doing so to cash one of our MLB home run picks tonight with Will Smith hitting a HR (+358 at DraftKings). 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!
 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Make sure that you add to our best MLB home run picks today with that FREE additional target (which hit yesterday), but once you’ve done that and you want more to root for, here’s our top longshot for today…

The Astros vs. Phillies matchup features Yordan Alvarez vs. Kyle Schwarber, so naturally we’re targeting that game for a longshot instead. Jokes aside, those two sluggers don’t generally provide the best value, but this Astro always seems to homer out of nowhere, like he just did a few nights ago. Let’s see him do it again for our best MLB home run longshot pick today!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you STILL want more now that we’ve got the entire league back in action and just a day away from the NFL season starting, we’ve still got more for you. That’s with a for-fun parlay to root for several MLB home run picks at the same time…

Ohtani because we went with a different Dodgers, Marte gets to choose his side of the plate against Michael Wacha and a terrible KC bullpen; and Hernandez has been mashing the past month or so.