The Week 4 Sunday forecast has trended drier since earlier in the week, and the final picture is much friendlier than it looked at midweek. A handful of games still carry rain chances in the 30 to 56 percent range, but the latest update expects mostly light, scattered showers rather than anything that should reshape a game script. The bigger fantasy stories this week are on the injury report, where several key skill players are unavailable and two teams are starting unproven quarterbacks. Using the latest forecast along with injury news and season-to-date trends, here is the breakdown of Sunday's 1:00 PM and afternoon games and what it means for your DFS builds.

 

NFL Week 4 Weather Forecast

Sunday, October 4 (1:00 PM ET window)

  • Cardinals at Giants, MetLife Stadium: 65 degrees at kickoff, rain at 22 percent early and building to 56 percent from 2 PM on, wind 7 to 8 mph out of the E/NE with gusts to 10 mph. The latest update expects light, spotty showers that come and go rather than anything heavy.
  • Titans at Ravens, M&T Bank Stadium: 65 degrees at kickoff, rain at 50 percent at noon and 44 percent at kickoff before fading to 20 percent by 2 PM and 14 percent by 4 PM, wind 6 to 7 mph out of the NE with gusts to 12 mph. The latest update leans toward a fully dry or mostly dry game.
  • Patriots at Bills, Highmark Stadium: 67 degrees, rain at 3 percent early and creeping to 14 percent by 4 PM, wind 7 to 8 mph out of the SW with gusts to 15 mph.
  • Jets at Bears, Soldier Field: 68 degrees at kickoff climbing to 70, 0 percent rain, wind 10 mph out of the WNW/NW and picking up to 15 mph by 4 PM, with gusts to 17 mph.
  • Jaguars at Bengals, Paycor Stadium: 71 degrees at kickoff climbing to 74, 0 percent rain, wind essentially calm at 1 to 3 mph.
  • Cowboys at Texans, NRG Stadium: retractable roof closed, no weather impact. The outdoor forecast (80 degrees, 40 percent rain, wind gusting to 22 mph) is moot unless the roof is opened.
  • Packers at Buccaneers, Raymond James Stadium: 88 degrees at kickoff, rain at 4 percent at noon and climbing gradually to 19 percent by 4 PM, wind 5 to 7 mph out of the SSE/S with gusts to 12 mph. The latest update expects a dry or mostly dry game with only spotty showers possible.
  • Rams at Eagles, Lincoln Financial Field: 64 degrees all game, rain at 42 percent at noon and easing to 28 percent by 4 PM, wind 10 mph at noon dropping to 5 mph out of the E/NE with gusts to 15 mph. The latest update calls for a few light sprinkles at most.

Sunday, October 4 (afternoon window)

  • Dolphins at Vikings, U.S. Bank Stadium: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Broncos at 49ers, Levi's Stadium: 88 degrees at kickoff climbing to 91, rain a non-factor at 1 percent, wind light at 2 mph early but building to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph by 7 PM.
  • Chiefs at Raiders, Allegiant Stadium: fixed dome closed, no weather impact.
  • Chargers at Seahawks, Lumen Field: 67 degrees at kickoff climbing to 71, 0 percent rain, wind calm at 3 to 5 mph out of the NW.

Worst Weather Games in Week 4

Cardinals at Giants carries the highest rain number on the board, with chances jumping from 22 percent to 56 percent from 2 PM on. The latest update expects those showers to be light and spotty, though, which is an important distinction: steady rain changes a game plan, while on-and-off sprinkles mostly do not. The matchup suits that kind of weather for Arizona, since Jacoby Brissett has a 70.1 percent completion rate with 652 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception through three games, and has the lowest time to throw among qualifying passers along with one of the shortest average depths of target. Short, quick throws are the least affected by damp conditions. New York's problem is not the sky. Jameis Winston has completed 51 percent of his passes with 229 yards and no touchdowns since replacing the injured Jaxson Dart, and the Giants' last 18 points have all come on field goals. They are also without edge rusher Brian Burns for the season.

Rams at Eagles has rain easing from 42 percent to 28 percent through the afternoon, and the latest update expects only light sprinkles, so the weather is the smaller story in this game. Philadelphia is without receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring), tight end Dallas Goedert (knee), linebacker Zack Baun (concussion), and safety Marcus Epps (groin), which leaves Jalen Hurts throwing to Dontayvion Wicks and Makai Lemon behind a line that has allowed eight sacks through three games. The Eagles' defense also has no takeaways yet, a first in franchise history. Los Angeles gets Puka Nacua back after two missed games with hip and groin issues, and Matthew Stafford has 872 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions through three games, including 390 yards on 55 attempts at Denver. Philadelphia's total has dropped three points to 42.5.

Titans at Ravens starts wet, with rain at 50 percent at noon and 44 percent at kickoff, but the numbers fall to 20 percent by 2 PM and the latest update leans toward a dry game. The more important context is how much trouble Tennessee's offense is in. The Titans are 0-3, and Cam Ward is 17-of-31 for just 136 yards in first halves this season, making them one of the league's least productive first-half offenses. Baltimore is patching its offensive line, with Ronnie Stanley out and rookie Vega Ioane starting at center after two linemen went down, but Lamar Jackson came through his back scare with no injury designation. Derrick Henry also gets his first look at his former team.

Packers at Buccaneers has only a modest rain chance, building from 4 percent to 19 percent, but it is worth a pregame radar check because afternoon pop-up storms can develop quickly in Tampa. The real story is under center. Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated right thumb, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start, the first undrafted rookie quarterback to start for Tampa Bay. The game total has dropped eight points from its opener to 38.5, the largest move on the slate, and with rain chances this low that move is clearly about the quarterback change rather than the forecast. Green Bay is a four-point road favorite, and Jordan Love has 844 passing yards through three games, fourth most in the league, though the Packers are missing both starting guards, Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk.

Best Weather Games in Week 4

Jaguars at Bengals is the calmest forecast of the week, with wind barely above still air and 0 percent rain all game. Chargers at Seahawks is just as clean, dry with only a light breeze, and Broncos at 49ers is dry as well, though wind builds late to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph in the fourth quarter. Patriots at Bills is a solid forecast too, with rain creeping up only to 14 percent by 4 PM and wind in the 7 to 8 mph range.

Jets at Bears is dry but a little breezy, with sustained wind of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 17 mph at Soldier Field. That is not enough to move the needle on its own. The more relevant story in that game is on the field, where Chicago is without quarterback Caleb Williams, who is dealing with a hamstring strain expected to cost him three to four weeks, leaving Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent under center. The Jets are dealing with a thigh injury to running back Breece Hall.

And do not forget the three games shielded from the forecast entirely. Dolphins-Vikings and Chiefs-Raiders are played in fixed domes, while Cowboys-Texans is under a retractable roof that is closed by default, so the 40 percent rain number and 22 mph gusts in Houston's outdoor forecast are irrelevant unless that roof gets opened.

Rain and Snow Impact on Fantasy Football

There is no snow this week, and rain is a minor factor on this slate. The highest numbers belong to Cardinals-Giants (up to 56 percent from 2 PM on), Rams-Eagles (42 percent early, easing to 28 percent), and Titans-Ravens (44 percent at kickoff, fading quickly), but the latest update expects light, scattered showers in the first two and a mostly dry game in the third. Light rain rarely changes play-calling in a meaningful way. It takes steady rain to push offenses toward the run and short passing game and to hurt boundary receivers, and that is not what the forecast is showing for any game this week.

The practical takeaway is to check game-time radar for the games in New York, Philadelphia, and Tampa rather than downgrade players in advance. If a passing shower does arrive, expect more of a slick-ball and fumble-risk story than a change in how often teams throw, and kickers attempting anything beyond 45 yards are the only group worth a slight haircut.

 

Wind Impact on Fantasy Football

Wind is not much of a story this week. Nothing on the slate approaches the sustained speeds that typically force game-plan changes. The highest numbers are in Chicago, where Jets-Bears sees 10 to 15 mph sustained with gusts to 17 mph, and in Santa Clara, where wind builds to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph late in Broncos-49ers. Cowboys-Texans would carry the week's biggest gusts at 22 mph in the outdoor forecast, but that is moot with the roof closed.

Everything else sits in a calm single-digit range, so wind should not factor into lineup decisions beyond a small, late-game note on kickers in Chicago and San Francisco.

NFL Games to Avoid in DFS Because of Weather

No game on this slate is a true weather fade, which is a notable change from earlier in the week. Cardinals at Giants and Rams at Eagles are the two closest to a caution flag, since both carry rain chances above 40 percent at some point, but the latest update expects light showers in both and the bigger downgrades come from the injury report. Philadelphia's offense is missing Smith and Goedert, and New York's offense cannot find the end zone, so neither environment is one to chase regardless of the radar.

Packers at Buccaneers is the game to treat with the most caution, but for quarterback reasons rather than weather: Jalon Daniels is making his first NFL start, and the 38.5 total reflects it. Check radar before kickoff since Tampa afternoon storms can pop up quickly, but the forecast itself does not call for a downgrade. Everything else on the slate, from the three dome and closed-roof games to the clean forecasts in Cincinnati, Seattle, and Santa Clara, should play out without weather being a real factor in how you build your lineups.