Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 16!
Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiated yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we are encouraged to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3
O/U: 53.5
Weather: High teens, snow accumulation around 1-to-3 inches, wing 10-to-15 MPH NNW
Notable Injuries
Titans:
None
Packers:
Jamaal Williams , RB (quad – OUT)
DVOA Defense Ranks
Titans
vs Pass: 30th
vs Run: 16th
Packers
vs Pass: 18th
vs Run: 21st
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade. All players listed can be used as MVP/Captain.
MVP/Captain
Derrick Henry , RB TEN - Yes, he isn’t cheap but the Packers struggle against the run, it’s going to be cold, it’s going to be snowing and that’s the type of weather where defenders want ZERO part of tackling a man like Henry. There is a reason why towards the end of the season we see Henry become unstoppable. In there of the last four weeks he has rushed for at least 147 yards while totaling six touchdowns during that stretch.
Davante Adams , WR GB – You get Adams a little bit cheaper than Rodgers so why not huh? Adams is going to tear up this bad Titans secondary that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass. Sure, the weather will be cold but Aaron Rodgers has been playing in the cold Green Bay weather for a long time and so has Adams.
Corey Davis , WR TEN – With it being likely that Jair Alexander will be shadowing A.J. Brown we should look for Corey Davis to have the more favorable matchups. We have seen Davis put up some huge games this season and this could be one of those games.
Aaron Rodgers , QB GB - Rodgers should honestly have a field day here against this Titans secondary as the Tennessee defense ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass. You pay for the points but the points will be there.
Ryan Tannehill , QB TEN – Tannehill has put forth some big games this season and he can do it with his legs as well as his arm. With the game total of 53.5 we should see plenty of points put on the board.
Mid-Tier
A.J. Brown, WR TEN – Brown has a hell of a matchup on his hands with Jair Alexander covering him but Brown himself is a tough physical receiver that can make plays with just a little space. Good enough for the mid-tier flex play just not someone I want to risk as my captain.
Robert Tonyan , TE GB – The Packers tight end has 10 touchdowns on the season. As I mentioned, the Titans do not defend the pass well and when the Packers get in the red zone I expect some looks to go Tonyan’s way.
Aaron Jones , RB GB – No Jamaal Williams tonight means that Jones should be getting the full compliment of snaps in both the run and passing game. Love his upside in this spot and he could honestly be a low owned captain/mvp play as well. Last week we saw Jones explode against the Panthers for 145 yards rushing.
Allen Lazard , WR GB – Lazard caught five of six passes for 56 yards last week. Not to be overly repetitive here but the uhh Titans are not good against the pass. Look for Rodgers to spread it out tonight with Lazard being among the top targets in this offense.
Jonnu Smith , TE TEN – Smith is used both has a blocker and a receiver but with Adam Humphries on IR we did see him catch all five of his targets last week against the Lions and has eight touchdowns on the season which is nice upside.
Dart Throws
Marquez Valdes-Scantling , WR GB – MVS is either a zero or a home run…nearly impossible to predict when he will go off but what we do know is that he is a big play threat that really only needs one catch to find pay dirt. Perfect play for a showdown dart throw.
Anthony Firkser , TE TEN – Sure, Jonnu Smith gets all the glory but Firkser may be utilized if this game turns into a track meet. A few games this season we actually saw Firkser put up some impressive numbers. Like MVS, he is a true boom or bust play.