The 2026 preseason slate arrived in the blink of an eye, and with it comes an awesome three-game Friday night card worth digging into. Thursday's six-game opening slate already delivered real storylines, from Fernando Mendoza's promising Raiders debut to a lopsided Steelers win behind two impressive rookie QBs, and tonight adds three more matchups loaded with their own intrigue. Offseason QB shakeups, new coaching staffs, and real starter participation across the board make this a can't-miss addition to our NFL best bets today.

If you missed it last night, we’ll also share how to make some NFL picks after scoring a GUARANTEED EDGE Boost promo code bonus!

🔥 NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/14 

Friday night's slate might be the most QB-driven card of the week with fresh storylines at the position across all three games. Tua Tagovailoa makes his Atlanta debut opposite Denver, Miami trots out new starter Malik Willis under a brand-new coaching staff, and Washington's Jayden Daniels remains a genuine question mark heading into kickoff. Add in Baker Mayfield sitting out for Tampa Bay against a Jets team fully committed to playing its starters, and there is no shortage of storylines shaping tonight's NFL best bets today.

Clarity varies significantly across these three games, which is precisely what makes Friday night worth digging into. Some coaches have been upfront about exactly how many snaps their starters will see, while others remain genuinely undecided this close to kickoff. That range, paired with real roster uncertainty at multiple positions, gives sharp bettors a clear edge over anyone treating this as a throwaway night. Between the QB subplots and the participation questions still being sorted out, tonight's card is shaping up as one of the sharper nights of NFL predictions all preseason.

 

 

 

👀 Best Matchups & Players To Watch Today

The QB storylines here are impossible to ignore. Tua Tagovailoa gets his first look in an Atlanta uniform tonight, while Denver's Sean Payton confirmed his starters will play 10-15 snaps, though Bo Nix himself will sit until next week. Miami enters a new era under first-year coach Jeff Hafley, who has said everybody should be ready to play as Malik Willis takes the reins after replacing Tua in the building. Washington's Jayden Daniels remains a question mark, with more recent reporting suggesting he may see limited or no action, a shift from earlier expectations, all feeding into tonight's NFL best bets today.

The clearest situation on the board belongs to Jets vs. Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is confirmed out for Tampa Bay, and backup Jake Browning is banged up after leaving practice early with a back injury, clouding who even takes the majority of snaps at QB. New York, meanwhile, has full commitment from Aaron Glenn to play his starters, the most definitive stance of any coach on tonight's slate. That contrast between a shorthanded Tampa Bay offense and a fully-engaged Jets team stands out clearly among tonight's NFL best bets today.

🏉 Buccaneers vs. Jets Prediction, Thursday, August 14th: Under 36.5 Total Points

We’re focused on the aforementioned Buccaneers vs. Jets matchup with the under, and it starts with a shorthanded Tampa Bay QB room. Baker Mayfield is confirmed out for the opener, and backup Jake Browning left Tuesday's joint practice early with a back injury and did not practice the following day. That leaves Connor Bazelak and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels as the likely options under center for the Bucs, a significant offensive downgrade heading into a preseason opener. That kind of shakeup at the position is exactly why this total stands out among tonight's NFL best bets today.

New York brings a different dynamic to the equation. Head coach Aaron Glenn has fully committed to playing his starters, which typically means a shorter workload for Geno Smith and the first-team offense before backups take over for the bulk of the game. Once Smith exits, the Jets will also be leaning on less experienced personnel, further capping scoring upside on that side of the ball. With shaky QB play likely on both sides for large stretches of the game, points should be harder to come by than usual, keeping this squarely among tonight's NFL best bets today.

Preseason unders tend to hit more often than the total sometimes suggests, especially when one team is dealing with real uncertainty at the game's most important position. Tampa Bay's offense already looked out of sync in practice this week, and Jake Browning's injury only adds to the disarray. Combined with the Jets planning to lean on backups for most of the game once their own starters exit, this matchup lines up as a lower-scoring affair than the current number implies. That combination makes the Under one of the cleaner NFL best bets today, and one of the sharper NFL picks on the board tonight.

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🔢 Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/14

If you want to find ways for some player-specific picks rather than a game market like the total, we’ve done the digging for you and found some projections available at Underdog:

Passing Yards:

Rushing Yards:

  • Bijan Robinson: Higher vs. Lower than 10.5 yards
  • De’Von Achane: Higher vs. Lower than 9.5 yards

Receiving Yards:

XP Made:

  • Will Lutz: Higher vs. Lower than 1.5
  • Nick Folk: Higher vs. Lower than 1.5

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