Thankfully, NFL schedule makers have made it so that we won’t have to wait until the full Sunday slate after Thursday Night Football for more action. As the league continues to take over as many days of the week as possible, we’ve got a Chiefs vs. Chargers AFC West rivalry to enjoy with our NFL best bets for Friday Night Football.

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NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Friday Night Football, 9/5

As mentioned, getting to enjoy a classic divisional rivalry is as good as it gets for a featured, standalone matchup, let alone one that has so many great storylines. The internet has had time to recover from the Travis Kelce Taylor Swift engagement, so now we can focus on football.

Fantasy managers are hoping that Kelce returns to his #1 tight end form and that Patrick Mahomes ends up being a QB worth drafting early. Of course, Chargers head coach certainly thinks that Justin Herbert should have been picked ahead of him, and LA fans are super eager to see rookie RB Omarion Hampton.

Well, despite all of those offensive names, you’re going to find that the main focus of our NFL best bets for Friday Night Football are a lower-scoring matchup.
 

 

 

Friday Night Football Prediction for Chiefs vs. Chargers

While we expect KC to come away with the road victory by somewhere between a field goal and a touchdown, we know that not everyone loves making their best NFL predictions on a road favorite, especially in a divisional clash.

That’s more than understandable, so before we get into the main target for our NFL best bets for Friday Night Football, we’d also recommend a rather unique player prop angle. It’s not one you’ll see often, but given that we’ve already shared that we aren’t expecting a ton of points, it will make a bit more sense.

Rather than focusing on Mahomes, Herbert or the like to shoot over their prop lines, we’re targeting a kicker! Despite it not being a common approach for NFL picks in general, we see value in Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker.

First and foremost, he ended last season with the second-most points for kickers last year, behind only Chris Boswell. If the Steelers kicker hadn’t had his two crazy 6-for-6 games, Dicker would have taken the top spot. We also see that his prop is a full point lower than KC kicker Harrison Butker at just 6.5 points, so just two fields and an extra point will do.

In fact, given what we’re about to discuss for our NFL best bets for Friday Night Football, the Chargers scoring just 13 points wouldn’t be a huge surprise.
 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Best Bet for NFL Week 1: Under 45.5 Points (-111 at Novig)

Ok, no more only alluding to our favorite NFL predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers. Our best bet is indeed the under, and while that may not be any more fun than rooting for a kicker, we’re here to win.

This pick was an easy winner when these AFC West foes met last season, and they weren’t even a sweat. Those two games ended as 17-10 and 19-17 victories for the Chiefs, so neither one even eclipsed 37 points, let alone 45. With the Chargers hiring head coach Jim Harbaugh, that wasn’t too surprising given his focus on physical defense.

Even if it wasn’t, this LA team is no longer the one with the offense that features Austin Ekeler, prime Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Similarly, as great as Mahomes and company are, the Chargers' defense allowed the fewest points in the entire NFL last year.

Similarly, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points per game. In the aforementioned games between these teams, we never saw a rusher go for more than 69 yards, and between the two elite QBs, just once did one of them throw for more than 213 yards. On top of all that, this wasn’t the case only last season.

In the last six matchups between these rivals, the under has hit in five of them! Even though KC has also won seven straight against LA, the main pick from our NFL best bets for Friday Night Football is under 45.5 points (-111 at Novig).
 

 

 

Top NFL Player Props & Picks for Friday Night Football, 9/5

You saw our suggestion of the rare kicker pick, but if you want to make more Chiefs vs. Chargers player props part of your NFL picks for Week 1, here are some of the popular markets at Novig:

Passing Yards:

Rushing Yards:

  • Isaiah Pacheco: Over 47.5 (-111) vs. Under 47.5 (-111)
  • Omarion Hampton: Over 47.5 (-115) vs. Under 47.5 (-109)

Receiving Yards:

Anytime TD Scorer: 

 

 

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