I do a LOT of content at Fantasy Alarm every week. I do all the rankings. I do 10+ hours of live shows. And I do 10+ articles as well. But can I let you in on a little secret? Of all the content, this piece on sleepers who could break out each week is my favorite one. Please don’t tell the other articles.
What we do in this article that is so special is that we try to identify sleepers in fantasy football. And not just any sleepers, but ones who could break out THIS week. We have one rule to make sure they are actually available to add in some leagues out there, which is that they need to be rostered in under 40% of leagues on Yahoo. As you will see, many of these guys are rostered in far fewer leagues than that. If you’d like to play along, jump in the comments on this Reddit thread and give YOUR guesses - I highlight the ones who hit in the comments of the following thread each week!
Week 7 Quarterback Sleepers
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
So we shared a stat this offseason. Every quarterback to run 5 times a game and play 16 games has finished as a top 10 QB in fantasy over the last decade. Every. One. You have to go back to 2014 Colin Kaepernick to find a QB who didn’t. Basically, if you are willing to run at a pace of 85 times a year and you don’t get hurt or benched, your floor is QB1 in fantasy.
Deshaun Watson currently has the second most carries of any QB behind only Josh Allen - he has 11 more attempts than te QB3 Drake Maye. When you remove all the scrambles, kneels, and sneaks, he leads all QBs in designed runs. Josh Allen has run 48 times and had 8 rushing TDs, while Watson has run 45 times and has zero.
Right now Deshaun Watson is on pace to run ~128 times this year. Yes, he’s only averaging 14.76 fantasy points per game. Of our guys to run 85+ times and play 16+ games, that would be the lowest in 30 years. You have to go back to Cardinals QB Timm Rosenbach in 1990. So one of two things is likely to happen here: Watson is going to turn things around and start putting up decent fantasy numbers. Or the Browns are starting to lose some of these games, and he’s going to get benched. I’m still stashing him, hoping for the former, but it could absolutely be the latter.
Week 7 Running Back Sleepers
Jonah Coleman, Denver Broncos
We like to think of NFL coaches as these stoic individuals. Always doing what is best for the team regardless of feelings. But that’s not always the case, as some of these guys can obviously let their emotions get the best of them. I mean, Bruce Arians once cut a guy over a parking spot. And Sean Payton is a guy we have seen varying degrees of pettiness and emotion from along the way.
Well, the Broncos defense is holding up their end of the bargain this year. But the offense is not. So much so that Sean Payton took back playcalling duties from wunderkind Davis Webb. Even then, they have not been able to get much going, so Payton is still looking for that spark. Rookie running back Jonah Coleman could make his return from IR this week, a player Payton pulled early from a preseason game this year because “he had season enough” (complimentary). That could give Coleman a rare opportunity to run with this backfield and break up the duo of JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey that we have affectionately referred to as the “author’s club”. Once you are banished to Sean Payton’s doghouse, it’s hard to get out. Ask Greg Dulcich.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
We just talked about emotional coaches making irrational decisions. So how about John Harbaugh quietly benching Cam Skattebo? Again, he didn’t bench Skattebo following his recent fumbles. Skattebo played - he just never touched the ball. Since Skattebo contributed to losing games for the Giants, Harbaugh punished him by losing another game with a rushing attack that produced 34 yards.
Still, Harbaugh’s stubbornness could create opportunity for others. After the game, Harbaugh did not mince words, saying that carries are “earned” and that doing something with them creates more opportunities. Well, of the backs that actually got the ball, Tyrone Tracy came the closest to doing something. Najee Harris did so little that he was actually released. Maybe Skattebo gets another chance here. But if Harbaugh is true to his words, Tracy is the one who should get more chances this week.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Ja'Kobi Lane, Baltimore Ravens
Last week we had rookie Germie Benard in this spot. And that panned out in a big way. We could go with Omar Cooper Jr. this week, who is only rostered in 21% of leagues. But he kind of broke out already last week, so that feels like cheating. Instead, we will go with Ja'Kobi Lane of the Baltimore Ravens.
Lane was a hot ticket coming out of camp. And he earned himself a role in Week One. But he quickly broke his arm and ended up on IR. He returned last week, just in time for Rashod Bateman to get hurt. It’s yet to be seen if Bateman will play this week, but there’s a real possibility that Lane is simply better than Bateman anyway.
Zay Flowers is the top dog. There is room for someone to emerge after him. I have a suspicion the hand injury from Week 3 is holding Mark Andrews back - otherwise, he might just be cooked. Bateman hasn’t done much, and fellow rookie Elijah Sarratt never emerged. If Lamar Jackson is back, we will finally get our first full game of Jackson and Lane. And it comes in an important division game against the Bengals, who should be scoring plenty to push back. Zay Flowers could be dealing with DJ Turner, who is quietly having a very good season, so Lane might need to step up here.
Efton Chism, New England Patriots
No, we aren’t just picking Efton Chism here because the Patriots and Josh McDaniels have a well-documented history of leaning on a scrappy, lunch pail white guy. Though that is a fun narrative. There’s actually a more tangible narrative here related to the Patriots' wide receiver room. And that’s the injuries to Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins, who are both on IR.
In games without AJ Brown and Mack Hollins, Efton Chism got the snaps out wide opposite Doubs. And, last week, with Doubs leaving and Hollins already out, Chism’s 42 snaps were second only to AJ Brown. Demario Douglas comes in to play his slot/gadget role, but for the full-time outsnap snaps, those went to Chism. And that could include two WR sets near the goal line, where Chism has already made one miraculous game-winning catch. So Chism is in a spot to make noise once again.
Week 7 Tight End Sleepers
Greg Dulcich, Miami Dolphins
Those who have followed my work in the past might be calling me out for bias here. Which I totally get. But this is also MY article on sleepers who will break out this week, so why wouldn’t I lean into MY sleepers? The whole game here is to look at the data and create some fun narratives to see if we can make magic happen, right?
Well, the last three games have been a bit of a rollercoaster for Greg Dulcich. In Week 3, he ran ~70% of the routes and got 7 targets, catching five of them. Nice. In Week 4, he ran ~50% of the routes and caught zero passes. Not nice. In Week 5, he ran ~70% of the routes and caught 4 of 5 targets. Nice. Then he had his bye week.
In Week 4, the Jets only ran an insane 32 offensive plays. Which overshadowed the fact that the Dolphins only ran a fairly abysmal 39 offensive plays. In games like that, there really isn’t room for anyone to do much, so we can kind of dismiss the bad game for Dulcich. With the Jets and Dolphins facing each other this week, I think we get a more normal game script in terms of play distribution, which could see Dulcich back towards the levels we saw in the other two weeks. A kid can dream.
Where Do We Rank The Fantasy Football Breakout Sleepers This Week?
The toughest question, week in and week out, is whether you should just start the “safe” guys you have or whether you can just throw a dart at this week’s possible breakout. Lucky for you, we rank every one of these guys for PPR, half PPR, and standard rankings every single week. So check out the Fantasy Alarm Weekly Rankings to see exactly where these guys fall compared to the other options out there. If it’s anywhere close, it’s always more fun to throw in that sleeper!