We are almost one week away from the start of the 2022 fantasy football season which means the more fantasy football drafts we see completed and the more questions people have regarding certain players. You can take a look at the fantasy football player rankings and get a feel for things so long as they are routinely updated like we do here in our free fantasy football draft guide. You can also look at things like fantasy football ADP and fantasy football mock drafts to help gather some public opinion, but there is still that inkling of doubt/concern that creeps into your mind. This is why we are doing this series of fantasy football player debates – to answer those questions.

One of the biggest concerns for fantasy players is how to view and what to expect from Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz had a big second half of the 2021 NFL season where he was the go-to target in the Cardinals offense but the acquisition of Marquise Brown and the eventual return of DeAndre Hopkins has cast some doubt on whether or not he is overvalued heading into the 2022 fantasy football season. Britt Flinn and Colby Conway battle it out when it comes to why you should be drafting Ertz or why you should be fading Ertz this fantasy football season!

 

 

Draft Zach Ertz  at his Fantasy Football ADP with Confidence

By: Britt Flnn

I really don’t understand how Zach Ertz is going so late in fantasy drafts.  He may not be a spring chicken, but he still has plenty of fantasy value to offer, especially on this high powered Arizona squad. Since 2015, Ertz has only finished outside the top 10 tight ends once, and that was in 2020 when he missed five games due to injury. Otherwise, he’s been durable and productive, finishing as a top five tight end or better in four out of the last five seasons.

Last year, he finished the season as the overall TE5, and that’s including the lackluster stats he put up in Philadelphia where he was sharing the spotlight with Dallas Goedert. The Eagles didn’t really have any offensive identity, so you have to cut Ertz a little slack. Arizona is different. Not only will he not be sharing the spotlight, but he’ll be a focal point on this offense with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games of the season and Christian Kirk now in Jacksonville. Ertz looks to be in line for heavy work early on in the year, so if you’re looking for a tight end with elite upside at a bargain ADP, look no further.

Ertz’s current ADP is in the mid 90’s, nearly a full 20 spots after the TE8, former teammate Dallas Goedert, and that is a screaming value. Last season, Ertz ranked third in targets, fourth in receptions, and seventh in target share. He will likely see similar numbers this year with Hopkins’ suspension and no more Christian Kirk, and although they brought in Marquise Brown, Ertz is still going to command a huge target share. In the 11 games he played in Arizona last season, Ertz saw north of a 21% target share, and when Hopkins was out, he averaged nine or more targets in five of those seven games. He clearly has rapport with Kyler Murray, and while Brown is there, Ertz is a proven security blanket. Even when Hopkins returns, Ertz will see enough looks to make him a viable fantasy option.

The Cardinals obviously value Ertz as a long-term asset, signing him to a three year contract in the off-season, and although rookie Trey McBride is now in the mix, don’t count on him to be a focal point just yet. We saw Ertz get supplanted in Philadelphia by a rookie tight end, but Goedert and McBride are not comparable in draft capital or play style. Ertz is still the guy this season.

I know we tend to shy away from older players when constructing our fantasy rosters, but Ertz has been a proven fantasy starter for years. Until he actually shows signs of decline, he’s an elite option with top five upside who you can get near the triple digits. Fade at your own risk.

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It's Time to Stop Drafting Zach Ertz in Fantasy Football

By: Colby Conway

Let me start by throwing this out there. I don’t hate Zach Ertz as a player. Sure, he may not be as dynamic as he used to be, but he’s a smart route runner that knows how to get open. That plays in the NFL. However, I have reasonable concerns for fantasy football purposes. At face value, he doesn’t seem to be overpriced per se, but when Arizona’s alpha, DeAndre Hopkins, was on the field last year, Ertz took a significant step back. Furthermore, with Marquise Brown now in the fold, what can we realistically expect from Ertz in 2022?

Yes, over the final four weeks he was awesome last season, averaging seven receptions for 63.3 yards per game. However, DeAndre Hopkins did not play in these games! If you look at the four games that both he and Hopkins took the field together, his full season pace comes out to 55 receptions for 680 yards and four touchdowns. In other terms…

 

Total Points

2021 Rank

PPR

147

TE14

Half-PPR

119.5

TE14

Standard

92

TE11


The optimists will point to his overall production with Arizona pacing out to being a top five tight end in all formats, and while Hopkins is suspended for the first six games, he’ll feasibly be out there for 11 games, which by my math, is more than half of the season. Ertz found the end zone just once with Hopkins on the field in 2021, and he had more than five targets in just one of those four games. Sure, Christian Kirk is no longer in town, but Arizona brought in Marquise Brown, upgrading its WR2 spot. Yes, Arizona throws the ball a ton, but the Cardinals have three legitimate receivers that will command Kyler Murray’s attention. How much can we reasonably expect from Ertz? If we look at red zone work, how much can Ertz get there? It’s not like he won’t get any attention, but in the twenties, Ertz is competing with Hopkins, Brown, Moore, and A.J. Green, not to mention Murray and James Conner on the ground. 

Ertz is going off the board just inside the top 10 tight ends, and sometimes gets pushed up to being the seventh tight end off the board. That’s simply too expensive for me and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze there. He should be decent for the first six games of the year, and then what? He becomes the third option behind Hopkins and Marquise Brown? No thank you, not with my TE1. With most of the builds I’ve constructed, Ertz falls into a dead zone of tight ends, if you will, in that I’d rather pay up for Kyle Pitts, or wait another round or two and target Cole Kmet, Irv Smith Jr., or David Njoku. Enjoy Ertz for the first six weeks of the season, but you better be looking to sell-high after that, because a bunch of games with four receptions for 39 yards will be in his future.

Now that you've heard both sides to the argument, which one speaks to you the most? Tell us on the Fantasy Alarm Twitter page!

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