Opening night didn't go our way. Joel Embiid filled the box score with 13 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists in Philadelphia's win at Madison Square Garden, but he shot 4-of-15 and fell short of 21.5 points. Ajay Mitchell managed just four points in 22 minutes as Oklahoma City beat San Antonio. That puts our Underdog NBA picks at 0-2 to start the season, and we're ready to get it back.

Wednesday brings an 11-game slate, and our Underdog NBA picks target two of the best passers in basketball. Tyrese Haliburton returns from his Achilles injury in New Orleans, and Trae Young opens his first full season in Washington against Milwaukee. We're going Higher on Haliburton at 8.5 assists and Young at 9.5 assists, and both play in games with totals near 240. Check Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections before you lock them in.

Underdog NBA Picks: Wednesday, 10/21; NBA DFS Projections

With 11 games on the board, there are more Underdog lines to sort through than any night so far this season. Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections give you a number for every player on Wednesday's slate, so you can quickly find the lines that sit below a player's realistic output and skip the ones that don't.

An All Pro membership unlocks complete access to our NBA DFS Projections and the rest of Fantasy Alarm's premium NBA tools for the full season. If you're building Underdog NBA picks every night, All Pro gives you the same data we use for ours.

 

 

 

Tyrese Haliburton NBA Underdog Pick: Higher 8.5 Assists

Haliburton plays his first regular-season game since tearing his right Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, and he's been cleared without restrictions. Rick Carlisle has said he'll watch the pacing, but Haliburton made it clear he's ready to play from day one. He also looked like himself in the preseason, scoring 24 points in Indiana's overtime loss at Oklahoma City.

The assist history speaks for itself. Haliburton led the NBA with 10.9 assists per game in 2023-24 after averaging 10.4 the year before. His number dipped to 9.2 in 2024-25 as Pascal Siakam handled more of the ball, but that's still comfortably above this line, and he recorded 34 games with 10 or more assists in 73 appearances.

Indiana's rotation should put even more of the playmaking on him Wednesday. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith have both been ruled out, which takes away the Pacers' backup point guard, and Haliburton has a new pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac. Herbert Jones is a tough individual defender, but he can't stop Haliburton from making the right pass out of a double team.

The Pacers are 3.5-point road favorites with a 239.5 total, one of the faster game environments on the slate. That's exactly the setting where Haliburton's assists pile up. Haliburton at Higher 8.5 assists leads off our card.

Trae Young NBA Underdog Pick: Higher 9.5 Assists

Young is one of the best pure passers of his generation. He led the NBA with 11.6 assists per game in 2024-25 and carries a career average of 9.8. Injuries limited him to 15 games last season, including just five after Atlanta traded him to Washington, and he still averaged 8.0 assists in only 25.6 minutes.

His preseason was a little sloppy, with 7.5 assists against 5.0 turnovers per game, but Young explained it as intentional. He said he likes to get his teammates involved in exhibition games, even overpassing at times, and took fewer than 10 shots in three of his four preseason games. Now he gets to play a full workload with Anthony Davis as his pick-and-roll partner.

Washington is a 4.5-point home favorite with a total around 239, and Milwaukee is opening its first season without Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Wizards will be without rookie AJ Dybantsa, which concentrates even more of the creation in Young's hands. A full workload in a fast game is all we need. Young at Higher 9.5 assists rounds out our Underdog NBA picks.

 

 

 

Unlock Your $75 Bonus & More With Underdog Promo Code ALARM

New to Underdog? Sign up with promo code ALARM to unlock your $75 bonus and more, then put it to work on Wednesday's Underdog NBA picks.

Download the Underdog app or visit the site, create your account, and enter promo code ALARM at sign-up. Build your first entry with Haliburton and Young or your own plays from the 11-game slate, and your bonus will be added to your account.

Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new Underdog NBA picks and our NBA DFS Projections all season long.