Joel Embiid Underdog NBA Picks Today, 5/4: Basketball Projections + More

The 2026 NBA Playoffs have advanced to the Conference Semifinals, and the daily fantasy sports boards are packed with value. With Game 1 matchups featuring the Philadelphia 76ers taking on the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, and the San Antonio Spurs hosting the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves, there are massive opportunities to build winning entries.

We have analyzed the latest box scores, advanced stats, and rotation shifts to bring you the best NBA picks for Underdog Fantasy today, Monday, May 4th.

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Joel Embiid (PHI) Higher Than 26.5 Points

Joel Embiid completely shifted the balance of power in the Eastern Conference after returning from his appendectomy, leading the 76ers to a 3-1 series comeback to upset the Boston Celtics. Embiid looked utterly dominant and fully conditioned in the closeout game on May 2nd, pouring in 34 points across 39 minutes.

Tonight, the Sixers travel to MSG to face the Knicks. In the 2025-26 regular season, Embiid ranked in the 100th percentile among centers in field goal attempts per 100 possessions, serving as the absolute focal point of Philadelphia's offense. With Embiid back to full health and carrying an enormous offensive load, 26.5 points is simply too low for the MVP candidate in a tone-setting Game 1.

De'Aaron Fox (SAS) Higher Than 5.5 Assists

De'Aaron Fox has seamlessly adapted to his playoff role with the San Antonio Spurs, operating as an elite facilitator to balance the floor. Fox is averaging 6.8 assists per game in the 2026 playoffs and comes into the Conference Semifinals riding a hot streak of playmaking.

In the final two games of the opening round against Portland, Fox carved up the defense for 9 and 7 assists. Taking on a Minnesota Timberwolves squad that is missing star Anthony Edwards, the Spurs' offense should dictate the pace. Fox will have the ball in his hands constantly, allowing him to easily eclipse the 5.5 assist mark by feeding his dominant frontcourt.

Ready to Play?

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