Tonight’s Strategy
As always, we have a decent 10-game slate tonight, and not a ton to really try and save for. It feels like a middle-of-road price-point kind of night with a mild sprinkling of superstars.
While fantasy ppg numbers are similar across most sites, for this article I am using FanDuel numbers.
So, with a Friday morning quickly slipping out of my hands and a fresh coffee, I bring you todays Position Coach Article.
Point Guard
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John Wall gets a favorable matchup tonight on a team full of bad matchups, facing the Pistons in what is slated to be a close game, with Detroit being -1.5 favorites. Over his last three games Wall is averaging nearly 50 fantasy ppg, and should continue that trend tonight as the PG with highest true usage rate on the slate at the position.
The Heat suffer from the same affliction as the Thunder, you have Goran Dragic, crap, crap, crap, and Hassan Whiteside in a bad matchup, see where I am going with this? Dragic is averaging nearly 37 fantasy ppg over his last three games while having the ceiling to launch you into the mid-40’s for a fair price across the industry.
Kyle Lowry has a great matchup facing a Hawks team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the PG position tonight. In three out his last four games he has dropped 40 fantasy ppg or more, including a 50-spot versus the Celtics on Dec. 9th.
The Houston Rockets tonight have the highest implied team total on the slate and several mid-priced ways to gain exposure to it. The first is Patrick Beverley facing a Pelicans team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the PG position. He has scored over 25 fantasy ppg now in five straight and has the ability on a great night to get up into the 30’s with ease.
Elfrid Payton coming off the bench is the only real viable PG for the Orlando Magic, who by the way, have the second highest implied team total of the night at 112.3. The Nets are allowing the most fantasy ppg to the PG position and Payton should feast on this matchup tonight.
If you want to take some value shots tonight at PG in GPP’s then Toney Douglas, Andrew Harrison, T.J. McConnell, and Austin Rivers are all in great spots tonight to exceed value.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| John Wall | WAS | H | DET | 22 | 36.2 | 83% | 1.3 | 24 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 45% | 19.4% | 44.8 | 48 | 45.1 | 45.5 | $9800 | $8900 | $6850 |
| Kyle Lowry | TOR | H | ATL | 25 | 37.2 | 86% | 3.2 | 21.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 45% | 14.16% | 38.7 | 41.9 | 38.9 | 40.3 | $8600 | $8300 | $6250 |
| Goran Dragic | MIA | H | LAC | 21 | 33.5 | 80% | 1.4 | 18.4 | 4 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 45% | 15.73% | 32.3 | 34.8 | 32.5 | 33 | $7200 | $6900 | $5600 |
| Elfrid Payton | ORL | H | BKN | 27 | 28.9 | 57% | 0.6 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2 | 45% | 11.73% | 25.8 | 27.2 | 26 | 26.1 | $5700 | $5100 | $4800 |
| Patrick Beverley | HOU | H | NOP | 15 | 29.4 | 60% | 1.5 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 42% | 6.97% | 23.8 | 25.6 | 24.1 | 24.6 | $5600 | $5400 | $4700 |
| Andrew Harrison | MEM | H | SAC | 26 | 27.5 | 77% | 0.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 29% | 8.41% | 17.4 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 17.8 | $4100 | $4100 | $4250 |
| Toney Douglas | MEM | H | SAC | 6 | 17.8 | 80% | 0.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 39% | 8.97% | 14.5 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 14.8 | $4100 | $3400 | $3500 |
| T.J. McConnell | PHI | H | LAL | 25 | 19.2 | 67% | 0.1 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 43% | 7.76% | 15 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 15 | $3900 | $3700 | $3300 |
| Austin Rivers | LAC | A | MIA | 25 | 23.2 | 65% | 1.2 | 9.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 45% | 9.64% | 15.1 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 15.8 | $4100 | $3900 | $3300 |
Shooting Guard
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James Harden, or Fozzy the Beard as I call him, is the top play on the slate tonight at SG and will be featured in several, if not most of my lineups. Harden gets a neutral matchup tonight, which matters little to player averaging over 53 fatnasy ppg in his last three.
With D.J. Augustin nothing more than a warm body, Aaron Gordon highly unpredictable, and Bismack Biyombo nothing to write home about, that leaves Evan Fournier, along with Serge Ibaka the most likely starters to produce tonight. Fournier has scored more than 35 fantasy ppg in three straight and faces a Nets team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the SG position.
If you fade Harden, then DeMar DeRozan would be your next best viable option tonight. The Hawks are allowing the sixth most fantasy ppg to the SG position while DeRozan can easily drop a 40-spot for thousands less than Harden.
Not huge on many Lakers tonight but, Lou Williams seems like a nice option coming off the bench facing the Sixers who are -1.5 favorites. Williams price is down a bit like his production the last two games, but in a GPP, if he gets the minutes, you could get 40 fantasy points out of him, something he has done now three times in his last seven games, including one 50-spot.
Call me crazy but my DFS radar keeps pulling me to Tony Allen tonight. He gets a favorable matchup facing a mix-and-match Kings team. Although highly inconsistent, Allen can put up over 30 fantasy ppg and has now three times in his last six games.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| James Harden | HOU | H | NOP | 26 | 36.7 | 84% | 2.9 | 27.6 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 44% | 21.3% | 52.6 | 57.3 | 53 | 54.1 | $11800 | $12000 | $8250 |
| DeMar DeRozan | TOR | H | ATL | 25 | 35.6 | 85% | 0.5 | 28 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 48% | 20.72% | 40.3 | 42.2 | 40.6 | 40.6 | $8400 | $7800 | $6100 |
| Evan Fournier | ORL | H | BKN | 27 | 33.3 | 84% | 1.9 | 17.4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 45% | 13.46% | 26.2 | 28.3 | 26.4 | 27.1 | $5900 | $5900 | $4600 |
| Lou Williams | LAL | A | PHI | 28 | 25.1 | 87% | 2.1 | 19.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 45% | 18.42% | 27.7 | 30.1 | 27.8 | 28.8 | $5600 | $6000 | $5300 |
| Tony Allen | MEM | H | SAC | 20 | 26.6 | 66% | 0.2 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 46% | 11.28% | 20.6 | 21.7 | 20.9 | 20.7 | $5200 | $5000 | $4300 |
Small Forward
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Not a ton to spend on tonight at the three, and I honestly plan to take advantage of the bevy of value at this position tonight.
Jimmy Butler was a touch of a letdown for me last night so I am going back to his well tonight. The Bucks are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the three facing the SF with the highest usage rate on the slate at the position, who can also put up 50-fantasy point games, something he has done in his last two-out-of-three.
Jae Crowder is heating up and has the best matchup on the Celtics tonight facing a Hornets team allowing the eighth most fantasy ppg to the SF position. He’s coming out on fresh legs and should absolutely get it done in this one, I smell a 30-spot.
Bojan Bogdanovic has been on fire as of late while his price has stayed low. He is averaging nearly 25 fantasy ppg over his last six games, putting up some decent numbers versus much better defenses.
James Johnson off the bench has been dropping some serious value for Miami. In fact, over his last four games that he has played more than 20 minutes, he is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg. For the price, I am more than willing to take a stab in a GPP here.
Robert Covington has resurfaced as viable once again. The Lakers are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the three while Covington in his last two has a combined 70.8 fantasy points on FanDuel. What is not to love here?
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Jimmy Butler | CHI | H | MIL | 25 | 36.6 | 89% | 1.2 | 25.5 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 46% | 16.85% | 41.9 | 43.8 | 42.2 | 42.4 | $9000 | $9000 | $6600 |
| Jae Crowder | BOS | H | CHA | 17 | 30.1 | 89% | 2.1 | 13.3 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 49% | 10.12% | 24.7 | 26.6 | 25 | 25.8 | $5600 | $5400 | $4800 |
| Robert Covington | PHI | H | LAL | 22 | 28.1 | 76% | 1.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 21.1 | 23.3 | 21.4 | 22.1 | $5000 | $5300 | $4250 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | BKN | A | ORL | 24 | 27.8 | 84% | 1.7 | 15.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 46% | 12.5% | 20.9 | 22.6 | 21.1 | 21.7 | $4600 | $4600 | $4300 |
| James Johnson | MIA | H | LAC | 22 | 24.7 | 75% | 1 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.7 | 49% | 11.6% | 20.5 | 22.1 | 20.7 | 21 | $4900 | $4200 | $3800 |
Power Forward
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I am not looking to save at the four tonight with so many mid-priced options to choose from in great matchups.
For obvious reasons, Anthony Davis is the top play at the four tonight. He is the driving force in the Pelicans offense, in other words, as goes Davis, so goes the Pelicans. He is the only PF on the slate who could drop 70 fantasy points, which happened versus the Lakers on Nov. 29th.
Serge Ibaka as earlier mentioned should benefit from being a key component in a predictable offensive scheme. He has scored over 35 fantasy points in two of his last three games now facing a Nets team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the four, in the game with the second highest expected point total of night at 218.
Jabari Parker let me down big time the last time I played him. Tonight, he gets a great matchup versus the Bulls who allow their fair share of fantasy points to the four. Parker has dropped more than 40 fantasy points now in two out of his last four games.
Tobias Harris is a great play tonight facing the Wizards who are allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the four. Prior to his last four games Harris had scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in five out of six games. At some point, he should break back out and tonight feels like the night. GPP only.
Ryan Anderson's price has risen little, his production a lot. He is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg over his last two and tonight gets a Pelicans team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the four, in what should be a shootout.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Anthony Davis | NOP | A | HOU | 25 | 38.4 | 82% | 0.6 | 30.7 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 49% | 20.69% | 54.1 | 56.2 | 54.6 | 54.4 | $11800 | $11400 | $8350 |
| Jabari Parker | MIL | A | CHI | 24 | 32.7 | 74% | 1.2 | 19.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 48% | 14.9% | 31 | 32.6 | 31.3 | 31.6 | $6300 | $6600 | $5000 |
| Serge Ibaka | ORL | H | BKN | 27 | 30.5 | 86% | 1.4 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 48% | 11.57% | 27.5 | 29.1 | 27.9 | 28.2 | $6200 | $6200 | $5000 |
| Ryan Anderson | HOU | H | NOP | 26 | 30.6 | 88% | 2.5 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1 | 41% | 8.85% | 21.6 | 23.6 | 21.9 | 22.8 | $5300 | $4900 | $4200 |
| Tobias Harris | DET | A | WAS | 27 | 33.1 | 88% | 1.2 | 16.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 49% | 12.33% | 25.8 | 27.3 | 26 | 26.4 | $5700 | $5500 | $4800 |
Center
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I will be running three lineups tonight, one with each of these centers.
Andre Drummond as always is the most consistent form of offense for the Pistons and gets a more than favorable matchup versus the Wizards tonight. Drummond has that 50-fantasy point upside I look for at the 40-fantasy point upside price.
DeAndre Jordan is the second center I plan to run out tonight. His price is more than fair, and he gets a great matchup facing a Heat team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the center positon. He is averaging over 40-fantasy ppg in his last two and with both Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul in tougher matchups, could see an uptake in production tonight.
In them lineups that feature both Harden and Davis, I will be using the matchup dependent Cody Zeller. The Celtics are allowing the seventh most fantasy ppg to the center position and Zeller can surprise you now and again with a great game. I expect 25-to-30 fantasy points tonight from him for peanuts.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Andre Drummond | DET | A | WAS | 26 | 29.7 | 46% | 0.0 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2 | 54% | 15.24% | 36.2 | 37.9 | 36.9 | 36.2 | $8300 | $7600 | $6350 |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | A | MIA | 26 | 31.5 | 54% | 0.0 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 65% | 11.57% | 31.1 | 32.5 | 31.8 | 31.1 | $7000 | $6700 | $5500 |
| Cody Zeller | CHA | A | BOS | 23 | 25.4 | 65% | 0.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 61% | 12.32% | 22.1 | 22.9 | 22.3 | 22.1 | $5000 | $4300 | $4200 |
Good luck tonight, any questions email me JCFantasyAlarm@yahoo.com, or hit me up on Twitter @RealJerryColvin