Sunday was full of close calls, and comebacks… yet some fell short – both in the games and for our NBA best bets. All four rebounding props went under their proposed line. Jusuf Nurkic was the only person who we bet to do it. Pascal Siakam had a 10th rebound wiped out by an off-ball foul, the second time that has happened in two days.




Isaiah Hartenstein did not earn the minutes we expected. In fact, he did not even play in the fourth quarter despite being healthy. PJ Washington had zero rebounds in the first half, as the Dallas Mavericks forgot that basketball is a four-quarter sport. At one point, the Mavericks were down 31 points in the first half. They came back late in the fourth quarter but could not hold off the Los Angeles Clippers in the last two minutes of the game. 

*Editor’s Note: Find the best NBA odds and lines on BettorEdge, the top social sports betting platform! Accessible in over 40 states, use code ALARM to get a $10 bonus when you join through us.



NBA Picks & Predictions: Monday, 4/29

There are three games today, and two teams could be playing their last game of the season. An Eastern Conference game, the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat begins the day and we look at Jayson Tatum to deliver on his third player prop of this series. Two Western Conference battles take place as the Oklahoma City Thunder look for the sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The NBA picks Bet of the Night takes place at Ball Arena as the Los Angeles Lakers play the Denver Nuggets. The first Bet of the Night of the week is also a boosted Same Game Parlay, with +600 odds. 




Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction: Denver ML + Nikola Jokic 30+ Points & 15+ Rebounds (+600 SGP on Bet365)

You cannot lay this wager quick enough as this is a must bet. Could it lose? Of course, but the odds are in our favor. The Los Angeles Lakers dominated Game 4 as D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves had their best game of the series. Anthony Davis has been amazing throughout the series, and that could continue tonight… But Nikola Jokic has been amazing as well. 

In this series, Jokic is averaging 40 minutes per game and has two triple doubles. He also has two games with over 30 points and two games with 15 or more rebounds. However, he does not have a game with 30 points and 15 rebounds – yet. The Lakers forced a Game 5 but the Nuggets have won 35 games at home this season. Jokic will shine as a true MVP tonight.

Jamal Murray is listed as questionable, and in the second half of Game 4 he can be seen grimacing and grabbing around his knee. He has a calf strain and there is a high percentage of him missing today’s game. Not to worry as Murray missed 23 games this season. The Nuggets can not win the championship without Murray, but they can win this series. 

Nikola Jokic will soon be announced as the MVP of the 2023-24 season. He is well aware of what's at stake in this match, and he will attempt more field goals in this game. A loss puts Denver back in Los Angeles against one of the most clutch players of all-time. It is never wise to allow LeBron James to give hope to his teammates. Coach Malone will put the team in the better opportunity to make defensive stops and offensive points. 

As great as Anthony Davis is, Jokic is better. Davis had one of the best games of his career in Game 4, and Jokic will respond with one of the best games of his career. 30 points and 15 rebounds has become so common for Jokic, most are no longer impressed. It has almost become expected from what some are calling the greatest center of all-time. 

The importance of this game will bring out the best in Nikola Jokic. Even if Murray does not play, the Nuggets have two allies tonight that they didn’t in Game 4: altitude and the crowd at Ball Arena. Kyle Speller is the best PA announcer in all of basketball, hence why he was invited to the playoff bubble of 2020. He will have the place loud and jumping. 

Jokic has 30 or more points and 15 or more rebounds in four of his eight playoff games against the Lakers. Look for the world’s best basketball player to lead his team to victory and cover his propositions for this NBA predictions Bet of the Night.




NBA Props & Best Bets, 4/29

Jayson Tatum has been scoring somewhere in the mid-twenties for this entire series. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets has bet the over and under on his point total, and been successful on both bets. This column has mentioned the expression, ‘good things come in three’, and we are hoping to cash for the third time. 

Elsewhere, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an opportunity to do something they have not done since 2016: win a playoff series. That’s right, the Thunder have not won a playoff series since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were on the team. We’ll dive into analysis for that matchup below.




Celtics vs. Heat Prediction: Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points (-112 on DraftKings)

Continuing with more NBA predictions today, The Celtics are double-digit favorites in Game 4 against the Miami Heat tonight, despite the lowest projected total points. The sportsbooks have the Celtics playing excellent defense and offense against the eighth-seeded Heat. This could very well happen.

If it is a blowout, Tatum could play less than his 40-minute average of the series. If the Heat are playing great defense, and it is a lower scoring game than projected, it works in our favor as well. The defense would start with getting the ball out of Tatum’s hands and playing tough defense on the Celtics’ scorers. 

The truth is Tatum has covered this line in just one of Boston’s last 10 games. As mentioned in last week’s column, Tatum has become more of a facilitator. He scores in the first half, then positions or dribbles himself into a vulnerable spot of the defense. This usually draws a double-team and he passes to Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, or whoever else might be scoring well. We are betting on a low point total from Tatum tonight in what should be a defensive battle.




Thunder vs. Pelicans Prediction: Oklahoma City Moneyline (-192 on BettorEdge) *2 UNITS

In 2016, OKC essentially ended the San Antonio Spurs dynasty in a seven-game series, only to lose in the Western Conference Finals against the new dynasty, the Golden State Warriors. Kevin Durant would have a larger role in the dynasty than blowing a 3-1 series lead, too. 

The 2023-24 first-place Oklahoma City Thunder can complete the first series sweep since 2011, and we are betting on it to happen. Oklahoma City has been quietly amazing all season, and they are letting it be known in the first round of the playoffs. A full display of great passing, full-time effort, and Coach of the Year, Mark Daigneault, have shown why they earned first place. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are not healthy, and not playing well. They can not figure out their starting lineup, nor their rotation. CJ McCollum is not rising to the moment, and Brandon Ingram has shown he can not be the #1 option for a team. They have not found a way to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nor keep Chet Holmgren from having an impact on the game.

The Thunder roll, and the lightning will strike on the Pelicans season today. Unfortunately for them, they will not be able to capture it in a bottle. The Thunder will be planning for the winner of the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks. With the odds near -200, put a double unit on it and return just over a unit to cap off today’s NBA picks.




Thanks for checking out my NBA predictions for today! Make sure to stop by Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting desires.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise